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Michael Stephens Profile picture
Michael Stephens
@MikeRStephens
Senior Fellow @FPRI, Senior Associate Fellow @RUSI_Org @RANDEurope & @WeAreBrightBlue Views my own, RTs not endorsements....Fulham FC
Oct 19, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I think I need to say what many in the strategic studies community is quietly thinking, and indeed saying to me.

Israel appears qualitatively far weaker than we had presupposed, and the dysfunction has bleed into many facets of their political and security apparatus (not all). The lack of strategic planning for a range of eventualities in Gaza is staggering to me frankly. How can Israel not have a preferred end-state for a territory it considers hostile?

How can their be no plan for effective counterinsurgency in the Strip above the tactical?
Oct 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I get why people are wanting desperately to find out the facts of this hospital explosion/strike. Many want the truth, and it's important to ascertain truth.

But people need to wake up. Trust is so damaged on both sides now that the truth doesn't matter. It won't be accepted. What happened yesterday was a turning point, because for those looking at the wider shape of the region, it was clear that friendly Arab States pulled right back away from Israel. And also signified their anger at the US. This has way bigger impacts than just Al Ahli hospital.
Jan 6, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts on the GCC as it stands. There are very real changes taking place which the Organisation now reflects. It is as far from unified as it has ever been, a congruence of broad interests by countries locked culturally economically and geographically. But that's about it. There is an inescapable truth that we're all avoiding, which is that each of the six countries has reacted to the Arab uprisings of ten years ago in very different ways, some engaged (KSA, Qatar, UAE) while others ducked out the way (Oman, Kuwait). Bahrain experienced it.
Jun 8, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A couple of things to say about this clip, and a couple of other clips I've watched a few times over the past day.

The tactics used by the police are fascinating, when protestors start to get fired up they back away quickly. Almost making it seem like they are running away. This in fact the last thing they are doing. They are clearly selecting an appropriate area to reform the line, which also creates space between themselves and the protestors. This does two things.

1) It makes the protestors have to chase them.