Put together a complete overview of the prediction markets space as many new teams are building in the vertical.

A quick summary on prediction market categories, their GTM strategies, product updates, some numbers, mechanism explanations, and where we are headed: There are broadly two methods of GTM: nonsports and sports. The former is a relatively unexplored space, with several areas to target: crypto, politics, cultural events

Polymarket is the clear nonsports leader, with its GTM mainly focused on political events.

Some quick thoughts on how Polymarket LP rewards work, how much they're spending, and how sustainable it is:

tldr; Polymarket pays USDC to those who provide limit orders (liquidity) near mid-book. The closer to mid, the higher the reward. Double-sided LPs get more rewards. These rewards are time/dollar-weighted, and rewards for any given market are paid out daily. The most popular markets receive 600 USDC per day in rewards (e.g. Trump to win the Presidency), while the less popular ones receive as little as 5 USDC.

1/ The IP landscape is dominated by brands such as Pokémon while new entrants struggle to gain market share due to high initial costs, time to bootstrap, and limited distribution.

Crypto disrupts the IP market by being open, efficient, and accessible.

mirror.xyz/1kx.eth/YONQvS… 2/ Currently, new popular IP hits take a top-down approach by producing expensive content - it takes:

- 100s of employees and $80M+ to build an AAA video game
- Millions to produce a 12-episode anime series
- $50M+ to produce an HQ movie

The barrier-to-entry is extremely high.

1/ A quick summary and timeline thread on how various stablecoins performed this weekend:

The entire stablecoin market began to experience significant volatility when Circle announced that SVB was one of the six banking partners that collectively managed ~25% of USDC's reserves. 2/ Within 8 hrs of Circle's tweet, USDC fell to ~$0.88, which is below the max possible impact if all funds in SVB were written off to 0 (1 USDC = $0.92). Smart money started buying.

FRAX & DAI have 92% & 48% exposure to Circle respectively. Both were highly correlated to USDC.

1/ DeFi has become increasingly complex as there are now over 2,000+ protocols and endless designs.

I summarized:
- the definitions of major principal & yield categories and respective differences
- Examples for each category

mikey-0x.medium.com/crypto-yield-s…

+ some more thoughts 👇 2/ DeFi has 8 major use cases:
- liquidity
- swapping
- directional trading
- borrowing & leverage trading
- yield farming
- staking
- depositing capital
- storage

In order to serve these use cases, capital + infra + services are needed, and in return suppliers earn a yield.

A few weeks ago, @Darrenlautf conducted a crypto fund compensation survey that received 116 people anonymous responses.

A 🧵 on analyst compensation data including base salary, bonus and carry figures, influencing variables, as well as stats about the crypto fund space: Most respondents work for a crypto venture fund, some work a fund that does venture and liquid, while few work for a pure liquid-style hedge fund.

The DeFi lending landscape has changed drastically in the past few months and it feels timely to provide an update.

A 🧵 on new protocols, stats on who's winning and where, and general trends that will shape lending in the next cycle: New lending protocols:

1) & 2) @dammfinance & @ribbonfinance are under-collateralized variable rate lending protocols. They're similar in nature to @aaveaave's pooled model, where depositing and lending is frictionless.

dAMM currently serves 23 assets, Ribbon to launch soon.

Is the veModel more like a token "shuffle" vs "sink"?

value shifts from one homogenous party (tokenholders) to one of two parties (lockers, non-lockers)

price goes up in SR because:

newfound desire to be a part of the locker party (buy) > desire to exit the system (sell) The loser is a non-locker, who gets less rewards

But, if everyone locks, then everyone loses because the exclusive party is now not exclusive, and there is a price premium for nothing

value "shuffles" between entrants (who perceive new value),
lockers, non-lockers, exiters

Decentralized societies are bottoms-up structures enabled by soulbound tokens and managed by its Souls

En route to co-determined sociality, how can we create a university alumni network without relying on the institution for verification and management?

Some steps: Currently, a person's uni affiliation relies upon a certificate issued by a university, and this is the only way provenance is established

"[Legacy] networks are the most powerful engine of economic growth, yet the most susceptible to dystopian capture by private actors"

As retail-driven crypto mania begins to slow down, finding PMF becomes especially important

Inspired by web2 frameworks - some tangible ways to measure product market fit in crypto and their implications: 1. The 40% Rule:

How disappointed would users be if a certain protocol disappeared tomorrow (survey)?

If >40% of users would feel "very disappointed", then it suggests that the product is either a) superior compared to market competition or b) the lone player in a market

1/ The DeFi lending landscape is changing rapidly, with several new protocols focused on increased asset composability and availability, especially for long-tail assets.

A 🧵 on current and upcoming lending solutions, their respective differentiating factors, and what's next! 2/ You probably know about @compoundfinance, @AaveAave, @CreamFinance and @SushiSwap's Kashi, but other novel lending solutions include:

- @eulerfinance
- @RariCapital
- @SiloFinance (coming soon)
- @MorphoLabs (coming soon)

1/ Super excited to announce that I have joined @1kxnetwork, where I will be conducting research and supporting builders across DeFi, Crypto Social, and NFTs. 2/ I believe that token networks can align stakeholders such as founders and users in unprecedented ways, and thus there is no better place to be than to be learning from the brightest like-minded individuals: @dberenzon @pet3rpan_ @nichanank @lalleclausen and @HeyoChristopher.