Moatless Capital Profile picture
Buyside Investor. Not investment advice. Do your own work. moatless "dot" capital "at" gmail "dot" com The line between Shabi and Niubi is very thin.
Jan 13, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Of course that's your contention. You're a Taiwan Strait Crisis Tourist. You just finished some Cold War ASW fiction, Tom Clancy prob'ly, and so naturally that's what you believe until next month when you get to Ian Easton and get convinced that there will be a million man swim Image across the strait without any preparation.

That'll last until sometime in your second year, then you'll be in here regurgitating the @CSIS wargame about the limitations of the

(Well, as a matter of fact, I won't because @CSIS drastically underestimates the capability of-)
Jan 6, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
The problem with this headline is that it creates some false narrative of 'walking back' regulations on 3RL. This is more of a recognition that 3RL execution was too fast/too furious. Incidentally, letting COVID rip allows for continuation of real estate reforms. Also, if you read the article, this literally is not confirmed as official policy - literally haven't even seen WeChat screenshots and policy document scans (which we previously saw). If Wang Huning's meeting on ZCP reopening was 'leaked', where are the corresponding leaks?
Oct 19, 2022 20 tweets 4 min read
As we look up and see former Fintwit darlings get demolished and see accounts deleted, it is time to revisit this piece by @GrahamDuncanNYC: grahamduncan.blog/the-playing-fi… Some reflections witnessing the significant drawdowns of former darlings:

1) Whatever 'edge' you had in recognizing something that others 'did not see' is transitory. It literally takes a few minutes for a view/thesis to be pitched...