In 2016, my reading of the socio-economic dynamics and trends in South Africa up to then, and an understanding of the ANC rigidity to archaic dogma and a corrosive culture of patronage, inspired my boldness to develop South Africa Scenario 2030. In that scenario, I could foresee a progressive erosion of political support for the ANC driven by its failure to pursue and focus on the national interest leading to finally losing its majority power in 2024 and being forced into a coalition with the DA.

Our fiscal crisis exists because we created it.
Our democratic transition compelled us to run an efficient state beaurocracy to achieve equity in provision of public services.
1st priority was to have top class revenue collection and Treasury. Discounting some hiccups in these areas, we have done well.
Now SARS urgently needs more resources. We must grant them. Whatever it takes.
We now also need to adopt a technocratic approach to eliminate inefficiencies and incompetence in our state system.

The appointment of old and retired cadres as convenors in GP and KZN sends a clear message that the ANC has run out of steam and ideas.
This decline was easily predictable from 2007.
It's painful to see a once glorious movement degenerate so miserably. The indisputable fact is that organizational renewal requires clear strategy and rigorous and dispassionate execution.
There is currently no leader with indisputable courage to do that!!
So, the ignominious end is unavoidable.
What you see now is just hubris.

I find it difficult to find fault with this clearly honest SONA speech evaluation.
The focus is on primary challenges the most impor4ant of which is dysfunctional municipalities.
This is where job creating factories are created.
outa.co.za/blog/newsroom-… Government states that the District Model shall fix the wrongs in munics.
Strategically this has to be premised on a clear articulation of primary problems and structural weaknesses.
And an explanation of why some munics work while most don't.
This is missing

If you seriously reflect on how the ANC Tripartite Alliance govmnt has destroyed the capability of the state system, and municipalities under its control, through leadership incompetence, this country should be the leader in rolling anti-government protests. Regardless of this serious indictment, party leaders and their zealots, continue to claim that they are the 'Leader' of society.
This term applies to pre-democratic liberation struggle phase to mobilize people around one mission to defeat apartheid.

The universal truth and reality is that aggregate national growth is driven by metropolitan cities Not national governments.
In South Africa therefore, the GNU is less important.
A party that controls a well run Metro shall win national support. The ANC did not lose majority power because of bad national policies. Yes, their misaligned policies and "Party-State" mindset derailed focus from the national interests.
The electorate punished them for dysfunctional municipalities under their control.

The pervasive and racialized structural inequality in SA is a deliberate outcome of racial exclusion under colonial and apartheid systems.
The Broad Black Econonic Empowerment laws and regulations under democratic government have failed to reverse it. But they have succeeded partially because the beneficiaries were in practice limited to political elites and their surrogates and cronies. Again the black majority continue to be excluded and relegated to the bottom of the colonial supremacist class hierarchy

Post-apartheid political mandate granted to the ANC was about assuring equitable justice in all areas and creating conditions for a better life for all.
Many policies and programmes that must, or could have been done, were not done or were poorly attempted. The following five rank amongst the most important that should have been achieved in three decades.
They were criminally neglected and yet a good basis was inherited in 1994. They needed a capable state and focus on the national interests at all costs.

The ANC policy and application of cadre deployment that has not been foregrounded on optimal competences and meritocracy for over two decades, in contradiction to how it is applied by the Chinese Communist Party, is counter-revolutionary and antiproductive. The systemic collapse of municipalities and all our logistics state agencies and infrastructure, that are the oxygen of economic development, can scientifically be ascribed to the blind application of this policy by the ANC in government.

When you evaluate the prospects of any organisation in a dynamic context in which it exists, pay particular attention to the following key factors:
1. Have a deep and comprehensive understanding of its Purpose and the structure in place to execute it. And this is of critical importance:
2. Have a deep understanding of its target market, its perceptions and how it is segmented
This will be vital for messaging.
Some observations wrt political organisations:
a) What is the socio-economic state of the nation

The shock impact of the GNU coalition era on society is profoundly massive and transformative and needs deep reflection.
Consider the following:
1. The ANC never thought the liberation loyalty and bond could be eroded and broken..... 2. The ANC hegemony and patronage have been broken and will be ended.
3. Opportunities will now become increasingly fairly distributed and open to all in many areas like; Expanded Public Work Programmes, BBBEE and the like.
@DeanMacpherson must be watchful..

Most, if not all, post liberation leaders have a good understanding of poverty and inequality because they emerged from that context.
That was motivation to lead the fight for freedom, equality and human rights.
They also had little experience earning income Many of them were reasonably educated but they were leading communities and societies made up of majority uneducated or under-educated people.
On occupying the reins of power, they were exposed to its extensive reach across the state system and communities.

The President and SG of ANC continue to make a false assertion that the GNU was a 'tactical' response to a serious and 'unexpected' electoral outcome.
Untrue.
The ANC has been on an irreversible structural decline as argued in Ch 9 "Fit for Purpose, 2018". This is decline is at centre of the scenarion developed in 2016 and published above
The coalition era is irreversible. It's a natural reflection of a growing centrist social outlook in a diverse and dynamic context.
We need to develop a framework to manage it

In order to regain lost voter confidence and win massive support for the GNU ahead of 2026, the following must be done before June 2025:
1. Enact a sweeping national law to compel all municipalities to shut spaza shops operated by illegal foreigners
1/2 2. Enact a law, like in Botswana and Ghana, to prohibit foreigners operating in the small business environment in black townships
3. Introduce heavy penalties on businesses that employ illegal foreigners. R100 000,00 per head.

2/3

Fmr Pres Mbeki made profound statement on much published promise of the ANC to renew itself.
He disclosed that he committed to join campaigning because the manifesto removed the statement that "We have a good story to tell". This was replaced by confession that "we made mistakes".
This also means abandoning the "Party-State" mindset and show the people that the ANC is instead "The Servant of the People".
This is a fundamental paradigm shift.
What then will show this change?

Let us celebrate woman's day with a solemn recognition that they act as a brickforce of society to keep the wall steady and standing in all tesring conditions.
But the foundations will remain the role of the state in ensuring the provision of security. But the state has failed women by neglecting its responsibility to secure the borders and ensure that all those that live in South Africa can be verified because the first victims of this neglect are women.
No day passes without a woman getting abused.

The biggest source of risk for the coalition govmnt named GNU is the cantankerous and self-centred @HellenZille
After almost 2 decades of stagnation, South Africa critically needs, stability, peace and investment driven and inclusive growth. The sponsors of the DA must carefully and critically evaluate this risk.
Ramaphosa, notwithstanding his leadership shortcomings, is providing a much needed steady hand.
All GNU members must concentrate exclusively on the task specified by the its focus areas

Molaudzi here painfully laments the collapse of VBS. He calls it a local bank that supported him in 1994, when no bank could fund his business. It started with one employee and now has 30.
He lost R2.5m. Many lost far more. Sadly others died of depression. This is a story of supreme evil.
VBS was always going to be vulnerable to fraud. It operated under less strict regulatory control. It relied on integrity of auditors and board to manage risk.
But the PIC audit representative colluded with fraudsters.

When you carefully and critically listen to all the GNU ministers post Lekgotla session, there's relief that there's alignment on policy prescripts and plans to respond to the basic and pragmatic needs of SAns.
Truth is that these have always been in place. What clearly has been missing for the past 2 decades is absence of focused execution by a state system at all levels that is Fit for Purpose.
This weakness is because of a mindset of the ANC Alliance that managed SA as a "Party-State" in its interests.

Unless the political parties carefully reflect on the electoral outcomes and fully understand the message from electorate, the responses may be grossley misaligned and incite even further punishment in 2026 and 2029.
2/ The message and mandate of the voters have little to do with foreign policy.
It reflects anger at gross mismanagement of the economy and the deliberate collapse of the state delivery system at all state levels. Municipalities in particular.
3/

South Africa, what form of govmnt is ideal for the moment?

1. In my view it must be a cooperative one in which the ANC forms the executive, subject to condition that none of the people cited in the Zondo Report are included.
2./ 2. The other parties must, above an agreed threshold, take up all parliamentary positions. They should negotiate and agree the allocations.
3. These parties Must agree to support budget and other agreed key legislation and defend 'No Confidence Motions'