From my discussion with @AlexWitt on @msnbc and to expand more-essentially this is what I would write as an assessment if I was still in the region: 1) Israel believes this is an existential fight-the campaign will be long, and will involve significant sustained fighting in Gaza; 2) this will entail terrible civcas, and also significant IDF losses, and could further radicalize the Palestinians-but no other option, as 10/7 was a game changer. Equivalent of 47k dead in the US. Israel must regain the aura of strength, both domestically and internationally;

A sober analysis of what an Israeli move into Gaza may entail...obviously a 30k foot discussion. Overall, 3 main points: Benefit, Cost and Ownership. First, the Benefit: attempt to root out and kill as many Hamas leadership, operatives, and support personnel as possible. Check. The Cost Part One: IDF losses will be heavy; this will be brutal urban combat. It will be bloody and very difficult. Hamas has tunnels, safe houses-fighting on their terrain. Success is not guaranteed. The Israeli public will need to be steeled for significant casualties.

Some thoughts after Zelensk’s visit. The US can affect the battlefield. A point that is often missed. Ie, the war does not have to be a frozen conflict. Provision of weapon systems, such as ATACMs could and would make a big difference. Yet we actively choose not to deliver. Why is that? Are we trapped by the “Crimea is Putin‘s red line“ argument? To me, that is the only explanation, as the ATACM inventory argument is not valid. So, Putin wins again with threats of escalation. It seems we can never break out of this faulty fear.

Scenario likely happening overseas: An agent braces his case officer "ok, so you're telling me that the info that I'm giving you all, that can get me killed, can be just taken home by a former president? And your vaunted justice system is tied in knots? This is nuts. I quit." My point: there is a cost to our core business in what has occurred at MAL, and the inexplicable rulings of this judge. She says her decision does not effect national security. Oh my. We are losing the key element in espionage operations-trust. To keep our agents secure.

We r a country awash in guns, that barely survived a coup attempt, and now restricts the rights of women. American exceptionalism? The notion of the bright shining city on the hill is being put to the test. The world looks at us and wonders. cnn.com/2022/05/03/wor… But interesting, majority of Americans want more gun safety laws, think Trump is guilty of crimes re 1/6, and are pro choice. So how r we lurching so far right, but the overwhelming will of the people is at the center? Something is wrong with our democratic system.

My comments on an extraordinary day: "For victims of the directed energy attacks, the signing of the Havana Act is a watershed moment. No longer can we be charged with making up our injuries. It is a de facto acknowledgment from the U.S. government that the attacks are real."(1)

https://twitter.com/mvhaydencenter/status/1446708902595268609

"Huge credit goes to Congress, who has championed the victims' cause, as well as the Biden administration for finally acting to provide financial relief to those with serious and at times debilitating injuries." (2)

Extraordinary scenes from The WH. As student of history, had to go. We stayed on sidelines b/c covid worries, but old c/o in me had flashback of dictators toppled and public celebrations..was also there day after Lafayette Sq debacle, which was really the beginning of the end..

I worked 26 yrs at CIA and retired as a four star general equivalent. I never, not once, saw any partisanship from career US officials get in the way of implementing formal USG policy. This charge is bs. And I was involved in every hot spot across the 🌎. There is no deep state.

https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/1192114000437358592

I never knew the politics of 99 percent of my colleagues. Who cared, we were too busy. Did I personally agree with everything we did? Surely not. But that didn’t mater a lick. We execute as we are instructed, period. As for the Ukraine fiasco, that is far different....