Multipolarity often highlights the internecine battle for Europe between the Atlanticists, who think the EU is best served by aligning with US strategic interests, and the Autonomists, who want the EU to pursue its own, independent strategy. But why is there such a battle?

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After the Second World War, the US sought to create an order to bind together its allies militarily (through NATO and a series of bilateral defence treaties) and economically (through GATT, the IMF and Bretton Woods).

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The US is also making progress on rare earths. Famously, rare earths are not rare, but extracting and refining them at an economically rational cost *is*. Currently, the US relies on China for rare earths and many rare earth inputs for electronics, including those needed...

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https://twitter.com/MultipolarPod/status/1793239333635289404

...for defence -- and these are *crucial* inputs. Without them, no smartphones, missiles or night vision goggles. This is obviously a huge asymmetry on the power ledger, so the Washington is moving to solve it, and the focus is Australia. The US has invested $850mn in two...

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This is interesting because it is related to #dedollarization, but also the geopolitical history of the Middle East and the US pivot to Asia. Let's have a brief thread to give background to the news that Egypt is considering doing more trade in non-dollar currencies.

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https://twitter.com/bneeditor/status/1786646502250545545

In 1978, US President Jimmy Carter, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin signed the Camp David Accords, which established the framework for the March 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel.

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Submarines would be one of the most important weapons in the event of a war between 🇨🇳 and 🇺🇲. In numbers and capabilities of nuclear subs, the US Navy has a wide lead over the PLAN. So advantage America? Not so fast, Grasshopper.

A 🧵 on why it's more equal than it seems.

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Submarines can be broadly divided into two categories: nuclear and diesel-electric. As the name suggests, nuclear submarines use a nuclear reactor to generate electricity and propulsion. Diesel-electric subs use a diesel engine to charge batteries that provide propulsion.

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A 🧵 on why Europe's economic, political and social reality makes significantly higher defence spending unlikely, despite the broad consensus between European establishment figures and US analysts (most prominently on X @ElbridgeColby) and politicians.

Desire≠Reality.

1/n France's budget deficit is going the wrong way: rather than moving toward the 3% target mandated by EU Law, it jumped last year to 5.5%, from 4.8% in 2022. Even if France wanted to let the profligacy go, the EU could and would impose disciplinary measures to force it to cut.

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Since the eruption of violence in #Israel and #Gaza, there has been little focus on Europe's position in this crisis. Few seem to have grasped how dangerous it is for the EU -- and how limited its ability to influence events is. This is important, so let's explain.

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What happens in Gaza in the coming months directly affects Europe through the channel of migration. The Arab Spring of 2011, and especially the Syrian Civil War and Libyan Crisis, led directly to the European Migration Crisis of 2015, when 1.3mln people entered Europe.

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The last 12 days in Israel and Gaza have shown us more than horror and depravity. They have shown us that #Multipolarity is no longer a theory or possible future state: it is here. We undoubtedly live in a Multipolar world order now. Worse, the West appears to be in a...

🧵[1/n] ...state of denial that the Unipolar moment is over. This will inevitably make things worse for us, and make eruptions, such as Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Israel, more likely. Why?

Let's start by looking at recent events in the Middle East. It isn't pretty viewing for the...

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We all know what swing states are in US elections: they're states that either party could win and which could propel a candidate into the White House. But as we move to a #multipolar world order, we'll also have to get used to *geopolitical* swing states. Let's explain why.
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A unipolar world order is one with only a single great power. This means there are few limitations on that great power: what it says, by and large, goes. The flip side of the unipolar coin is that 2nd rank powers and emerging economies have little choice but to adhere to...

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The obvious fact that the sanctions imposed on Russia have failed to achieve their aims is starting to become the mainstream view. It's therefore a good time to ask why this is, and what it says about the competency and strategic planning of Western political leadership.

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First, to understand the scale of the failure, it's important to define the original goals of the sanctions -- or at least what Western leaders hoped they would achieve. In the third week of February 2022, US President Joe Biden said that "As a result of these...

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Today, Xi Jinping is to meet with Joko Widodo, the president of Indonesia, so let's discuss a subject that might seem dull and esoteric, but which is in fact crucial to the geopolitics and economics of the coming multipolar world order: Indonesia's trade policy. 🧵

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https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/status/1684462493480230912

Indonesia is the leading nickel miner in the world, accounting for over 30% of global production. However, Jakarta has long been wary of falling foul of the classic 'Resource Curse', and has also wanted to capture more value from its bounteous deposits. Thus, in 2020...

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🧵In the last month, the WTO ruled that 🇺🇲 had violated trade rules in two separate cases. This little reported event has significant implications for the global trade and economic systems. Indeed, @greg_ip of the Wall Street Journal suggests the WTO is "crumbling". Why? [1/n] Free trade has been central to economic development since WWII. In fact, it's been viewed as so important that since the end of the Cold War, it has become something approaching a shibboleth for the Western political class. The basic argument for free trade is that by...[2/n]