1/16 Why Cult Memecoins will continue to outperform everything until the end of the Cycle

Every Crypto "Altcoin" Cycle has a few core Narratives that dominate the cycle.

2016-2017: Ethereum, Altcoins and ICOs
2020-2021: Alt-L1s, DeFi, GameFi, NFTs
2024-2025: Memes, AI, RWA 2/16 Here is the interesting part, however.

If you look at famous assets that went ballistic in each respective bull run, you will notice that many of those coins had a pre-pump in the pre-final year of the bull run, followed by mega-pumps in the final year of the bull run.

Excited to announce a new DeFi / SocialFi project that 5 of my long-time best friends and I have been working on since February.

The project is named STFX @STFX_IO which stands for Single Trade Funds Exchange. People have been talking about “SocialFi” since 2019 but there has been no breakthrough product yet.

As traders, we know that popularity alone is not the measure of a trader or thesis. Our goal is to make Trading significantly more gamified.

medium.com/@STFX_IO/intro…

0/20. My list of 20 reasons why I think that if 5450-5550 area holds -- its very bullish & megamoonsoon is still on the table:

I repeat, IF, 5450-5550 area holds, THEN, it's quite bullish.

Saturday Megathread: 1/20. Resistance flipped support on this orderblock.

4 Higher Highs.
3 Higher Lows.

As the urban legend goes, consolidation patterns that break out upwards *even though their neckline/confirmation line is in an incline*. break upwards particularly violently when/if they do.

1/ This screams bearish.
Tweets about Bitcoin at the same level as 2014 and lower than at any point in 2016, like nothing has changed.

That is an absolute disaster for the price in the medium-term in my opinion. 2/ All the people, particularly in the Western world, obsessed with Bitcoin (your @pierre_rochard's and @MrHodl's) have already been in Bitcoin for a while.

Bull markets bring fewer new obsessed & there are fewer of them overall than I thought.

1/ Why I believe the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle WILL BREAK during this bear market cycle:

Let's peel the onion and dig deeper and deeper into the Art & Science of Bitcoin's $BTCUSD weekly Moving Averages: 2/ For the nerds in more detail:

The collective human unconscious often behaves in remarkably similar ways. 1D vs. 3D look:

1/ Let's go on a little journey. What if the history does indeed rhyme? 2/ Let's analyze the patterns between Baby Capitulation and Final Capitulation in 2014-2015.

1/ Titanium level thickness cluster of resistance here. The longer we stay here the more I'd be inclined to look for shorts.

If we *do* break it though, $4800, at the very least, is in play. 2/ NVT going higher does not inspire confidence right now. Chain usage has gone down, while the price has gone up. The graph below hasn't updated for yesterday's jump in price yet either. We are getting increasingly overvalued overall, the bear market could be prolonged even more

1/ Markets in a state of (local) disequilibrium and disarray. My Views on What's Going on at this very moment. The channel can be widened for the Feb 2018 low to bounce from its bottom which coincides with the 200-WEEK Moving Average historical support. 2/ Bitfinex BTCUSDSHORTS absolute All time High.

1/ The unwind is far from over. 2/ The worst is yet to come.

1/ Just a thought experiment assuming this bear market plays out *exactly* like last time. Some believe it may last even *LONGER*. 2/ Arguments for "Same length or longer":
(a) It takes more time/PA to trend-exhaust a 100B asset v 5B asset
(b) BTC went 100x in 2yrs 15-17. Too fast wrt True Believers?
(c) Most people were d-facto BTC maximalists back then, right now more altcoiners
(d) Legacy mrkts crash (!?)

"The reason gold was used as money more than granite is no longer relevant."
I disagree. Yes moneys are stories, but they are not arbitrary stories.
The money-winners eventually emerge due to possessing very specific characteristics.

https://twitter.com/TusharJain_/status/1009926106504400897

2/ Gold was chosen as money in millenia-long, multi-locale 'evolution', as people found it has the highest stock-to-flow ratio + durability.

1/ Many of the SV / SF / VC / HF think ETH or another smart contract platform will win because “more people are building apps on it.” 2/ Whereas, what truly matters is the coin that gets the most investment & wealth inflows from retail, institutions and HNWIs as “Neo-Gold” —> “Neo-Money”

1/ Bitcoin will usher an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity. 2/ A modern variant of European 'La Belle Epoque' of 1871-1914, when the peak of the Gold standard put some semblance of a cap on State power. Money is Power. Bitcoin is the Neo-Gold standard.