Why are blue-collar voters drifting from the Democratic Party? Is it due to shifts in voter preferences or shifts in party positions? What role do cultural versus economic policies play? My Job Market Paper presents an empirical model that unpacks these dynamics. TL;DR: I show that parties’ stronger polarization on cultural vs. economic issues has been the main driver of voter realignment. Meanwhile, shifts in preferences—esp. blue-collar voters' growing support for progressive economic policies—have slowed their defection from Democrats.

I am very excited to share our new NBER WP with @ikuziemko and @snaidunl: “Compensate the Losers”: Economic Policy and Partisan Realignment in the U.S.
A short summary of the paper below.
nber.org/papers/w31794 Using 80 years of data, we find that the educational realignment, causing Democrats to lose less-educated voters, began in the 70s and has maintained a similar pace since then. We argue that the rise of a conservative faction in the Democratic Party is a key driver of this shift.