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https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1833495962578465266Staying on the LV question: from its inception until last week's CNN/SSRS state polls (give them applause), the NYT/Siena poll was the only public poll incorporating self-reported vote intention and a model of turnout based no vote history
https://x.com/Wertwhile/status/1822225193638535599That said, it is worth noting that the sample does look a little blue. It's about a net-1 pt more Democratic, Dem-leaning and 2020 'Biden compared to the last time we polled these three states in May. This could be an indication of a shift in response patterns, though it could indicate change in attitude as well
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1812505261950587082The findings of the model do not intuitively follow from the description of its methodology. The QT is the latest example: I would have expected an adjustment based on data in other states to hurt Biden in WI, as WI has yielded some of Biden's best numbers this year.
https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747441818612945200?s=201) Specials are driven by turnout. The data is unequivocal as long as I've been looking at them with our rich data, going back to 2017. That should not be remotely surprising, as the as the people who know about/vote in specials are highly parstisan -- just like all of you!