Latest Twitter Threads by @NeilDotObrien on Thread Reader App

Jan 23 • 15 tweets • 4 min read

I have a new (data-heavy!) article on migration & ethnicity which includes:
- The "missing million" difference in migration figures
- Interactive maps for parliamentary constituencies
- An in-depth examination of changes in schools from a WPQ on DFE data

neilobrien.co.uk/p/migration-an… The theme of the piece is that the effect of migration and ethnic change varies massively between different places and people. For some people, immigration hasn’t really changed their world. For others, it has absolutely transformed it.

Dec 12, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

My new article looks at how changes put in place by Boris Johnson both massively increased overall immigration, and also took us further away from being the 'grammar school of the west' (1/10)

almondtree.substack.com/p/legal-migrat… The UK has shifted from mainly EU migration to mainly non-EU migration (2/10)

Oct 24, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

There is a lot on this super-timely @ukonward mega polling report - things I thought were interesting included: (1/7)

ukonward.com/wp-content/upl… Why voters left - scandals, being too liberal on migration and (for some) the economy (2/7)

Aug 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read

Energy Thread:
1 reason energy package will need an element of direct help is massive variation in energy cost WITHIN different income groups.

Chart below (which is old) shows huge variations, and all these costs will now go up a lot, making absolute variation even bigger (1/7)

In the old example above, the median household in the bottom spending decile was spending 14% of post housing income on energy, but the top quartile of same group were spending 23% and top tenth safely over a third. (2/7)

Aug 15, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read

The latest in my series of pieces on challenges for the new PM looks at migration. Quick thread:

Since '97 there’s been unprecedented net migration to the UK. England and Wales’ population rose just 1.2 million from 1971 to 1991, but 7.6 million over the last twenty years (1/13)

Many Leave voters assumed Brexit would reduce immigration. But since the referendum gross migration has increased not reduced. (2/13)

Jan 23, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read

*Networks of disinformation: a thread.*

The covid-sceptic campaign group @pcrclaims have deleted all their tweets from before the last couple of days.

They are trying to cover their tracks & look more 'respectable' by deleting stuff like the below (from 16 December). 👇

But they still claim Covid is a "pseudo epidemic".

Their website features Clare Craig saying:

"it is all based around false positive test results, when there is no real disease behind it, and I think that's what we are seeing here." (2/3)

pcrclaims.co.uk/video/Clare-Cr…

Jan 20, 2021 • 21 tweets • 7 min read

Another top covid-sceptic, Dr Clare Craig, has deleted all her tweets from last year.

Unfortunately for her attempts to cover her tracks... Google cached them, so we can take a look at how she’s used her professional qualifications to spread dangerous disinformation.

A thread: On 18 October she claimed in a now-deleted tweet:
“No-one is going to die of it (only with it).Flu diagnoses have been replaced by COVID. This happens when you overtest people dying of respiratory failure until you get the result you are looking for.”

Jan 14, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read

How to handle the Covid pandemic is the most important issue facing MPs right now.

So I wonder why Julia objects to me questioning the claims of her fellow covid-sceptics?

Here's a thread on some of the things *she* has claimed:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1349804968270827520

"Every journalist and MP should be asking the PM & Health Secretary: why are we using a Covid-19 test that has 90% false positives?"

Twitter, 20 September 2020

Jan 14, 2021 • 22 tweets • 4 min read

As the UK tragically hits a record number of Covid-19 deaths, Covid-sceptic-in-chief @toadmeister appears to have deleted all his tweets from last year.

That's not surprising. Here are some of the things he claimed over the last year - a thread. "Should we be worried about the uptick in cases? Almost certainly not. It’s due to recent increases in testing capacity... Given the over-sensitivity of the PCR test, the rise in new cases is telling us just how many people have had Covid-19 in the past"

Telegraph, 7 September

Jan 3, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

>We are facing a major crisis<

The current wave of the Coronavirus crisis is in many ways *worse* than the original spring surge. Quick thread: The proportion of people tested who test positive has gone screaming up everywhere. Data up to 29th December:

Jan 1, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

The Daily Telegraph leader today says: "Let's admit what we got wrong in 2020, and shake things up in 2021".

Great idea. I have some suggestions. How about:

telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/0… ...The Telegraph publishing this piece by Toby Young in June, which claimed: "there will be no “second spike” – not now, and not in the autumn either. The virus has melted into thin air. It’s time to get back to normal."

telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/2…

Dec 26, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

The below is wrong at several levels. In England and Wales, 65,000 aged 65+ have died with it, plus over 7,400 working age people. Many had prior medical conditions, but we don't hold their lives to be valueless because Britain isn't a fascist state.

https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1342780150358962176

About one in ten had no prior conditions. But having a prior condition doesn't mean you are about to die! EG about 10,000 had diabetes. Theresa May has it and was Prime Minister! A study by Glasgow Uni suggested the average victim would have had another ten years - that's a lot.

Dec 23, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

There are good reasons to be much more concerned about the new wave 3, than about wave 2 - a quick thread. Here's the relationship between the number of cases in England among those aged 60+ and the number of people hospitalised by Covid - the one follows the other with a lag.

Dec 21, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

My piece below looks at Sweden. Recent days have seen Sweden’s Nordic neighbours Finland and Norway offer emergency medical assistance as Stockholm’s hospitals overflow & the King make an unprecedented criticism of the failed strategy. What went wrong?

newstatesman.com/world/europe/2… Sweden started with massive advantages: more people living alone than anywhere else and a sparse population. But it ended up with death rates 9 and 10 times that of neighbours Finland and Norway

Dec 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

Cases rising fastest in new tier 4 areas but they are curving up in every region of England. Need to watch out.

Same data but just for the last week - though some much faster than others, every region is rising.

Nov 29, 2020 • 29 tweets • 5 min read

ONE BOGUS CLAIM IN THE TELEGRAPH AND WHY IT MATTERS – A thread The Sunday Telegraph reports that “Boris Johnson's decision to impose tougher tiers of restrictions on much of the country this week will cost the economy £900 million a day, according to a leading economic forecaster.”

telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/2…

Nov 23, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read

JUST ONE GRAPH IN THE DAILY MAIL - a thread. The Daily Mail published this chart. 2 things about it struck me. First, I’d seen the same data from the ONS, which sadly showed excess deaths in recent weeks – in fact higher than any time in the last 5 years. But this chart purported to show just the opposite. First, the Mail:

Oct 16, 2020 • 25 tweets • 5 min read

TAKING THE GREAT BARRINGTON DECLARARTION SERIOUSLY – a thread. 1 or 2 MPs have advocated the ideas in the “Great Barrington Declaration”: that we should get back to normal, go for herd immunity, & try to shield the elderly & vulnerable. Rather than dismiss this out of hand I've tried to crunch some numbers on what it would mean in practice.

Sep 7, 2020 • 15 tweets • 5 min read

Quick thread on our "levelling up" report today & new Taskforce.

Most people know there's a big gap in earnings and incomes between London, the SE & Scotland on the one hand and the rest of the country on the other (map below). But lots turns on how you measure things... (1/15)

My report looks at how subtly different ways of measuring performance can tell VERY different stories about what's happening in different places. (2/15)

Mar 6, 2020 • 18 tweets • 6 min read

Here's a strange thing. Certain types of spending, transport, R&D, housing, culture, are vital to boost productivity. Yet in Britain we spend more on these things in places where productivity is already high. @guymiscampbell and I have a report out exploring why. Thread ahoy! First, transport. London is the big winner, followed by two other high-productivity places. Between 2007/8 and 2018/19 capital spending on transport in London was around £6,600 per head, nearly three (2.75) times the average in the rest of England (£2,400).

Jun 25, 2019 • 13 tweets • 4 min read

My Spectator piece on why we should put low and middle income families at the front of the queue for tax cuts - a quick thread (1/)

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/boriss… Raising Higher Rate threshold benefits a bit over 4 million people.
Raising the starting rate for National Insurance would benefit 32 million people.
Cutting council tax benefits 27 million households.
We must focus on cutting the taxes people on average incomes pay.
(2/)

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