Senior Research Fellow, Dianoia Institute of Philosophy, ACU. Interests: knowledge, probability, explanation, inference, rationality, science, goodness, God.
Nov 12, 2022 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
1/ What does our 'probability'-language mean when we say things like: "it's probable the dinosaurs were killed by an asteroid" or "it's more likely the butler’s fingerprints would be on the gun if he's the murderer than if he's not"? A🧵on my latest paper.
2/ Note: it's common to distinguish the "epistemic" probabilities in the examples above from the "physical" probabilities in, e.g., quantum mechanics. My focus is on the former. (In fact I think my account can extend to physical probabilities, but that's a paper for another day!)
