The newly announced $500bn Stargate AI datacenter is the largest ever announced

Here's some context around its power needs and how that stacks up to what the American Natural Gas industry could deliver

TLDR: If unopposed, the Nat Gas industry could fill this w ease

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The Stargate AI datacenter is a $500bn collaboration between OpenAI/Oracle/Softbank. A 5 year project which would call for 5 GW of new power per year (25 GW total).

There's a lot of questions around whether the nat gas industry could fill it. So lets look at historical growth

Continuing with the enhanced geothermal deep dive, specifically focusing on Fervo.

Flipped through the tech papers that Fervo put out. Good info. Links in the thread below.

Here’s an “oil and gas” take on what they’re doing + what unknowns remain ⬇️

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Gotta preface this 🧵 by saying this:

What Fervo is out there attempting to do is pretty awesome. Not trying to throw shade here

But, it’s important to highlight the reality of the downhole challenges ahead of them

Can they be overcome? Maybe. I hope so. But it’ll be tough

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Ran a quick analysis comparing:

Total gas that's been produced from the Marcellus vs
USGS Resource Estimates

TLDR: The Marcellus is blowing through all government estimates and is proving to have 10x more gas than initially believed.

Explanations of the data below ⬇️ 2/

Quick terminology etc:

TCF = Trillion Cubic Feet

For reference, the US consumes about 35 TCF per year

USGS = United States Geological Society. Part of their responsibility is quantifying the oil and gas resources within the US.

$CTRA conf call tomorrow - Predicted Questions, Predicted Answer, and then Reality

Conf call Question 1:

Question: I noticed your Marcellus volumes were down, can you just provide some color on that

Predicted Answer: It’s more timing related than anything. We’ve had some… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Conf call Question 2

Question: I noticed 40% of your 2023 plans in Appalachia are Upper Marcellus, up from 20%. Can you speak to that?

Predicted Answer: Our team is doing a great job figuring out the Upper Marcellus, and the wells are getting better and better to the point… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

The $MMAT $MMTLP $TRCH saga has finally played out. It’s been fascinating to watch.

Here’s what happened and why it happened

TLDR: Retail investors got caught in a get rich quick scheme. They were blinded by shorts conspiracies. And now their investment is worth less than 0. 🤯 $MMAT inherited torchlight resources (formerly a pole dancer company and then a worthless oil and gas scam run by John Brda). After years of dry holes and zero bids from anybody willing to buy the asset, $mmat finally decided to spin the asset out into a new private company

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I posed a riddle to 3 kids the other day, ages 8, 14, and 19, to get a sense of the sophistication level of US/EU energy policies.

Riddle below.

TLDR: Green-leaning leaders have a 6th grade understanding of energy and how to address climate change. 2/

The riddle:

There’s a water tank perched on top of a hill. The tank has thousands of holes poked in it, and there is water leaking out of each hole.

If enough water leaks out of the tank, the surrounding hill will give way and collapse.

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I try to stay out of political posts, but have to speak up here. The biggest beneficiary of the democrat agenda to limit US natural gas infrastructure build out (LNG + pipelines) is NOT the environmental movement. It’s:

1) Worldwide Coal Use
2) Putin’s gas grip on Europe 2/

Prematurely limiting natural gas availability on the world stage before coal has been eliminated, and before renewables have found their footing, is an environmental/humanitarian/geopolitical disaster.

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Last thing on #HedgeGate then Ill go back in my bunker

From a macro perspective we’re finally getting some damn visibility on steady operations that are locked in at highly economic prices, prices that essentially assure a double of most equities on both the oil and gas side 2/

We all know I’ve been absurdly bullish oil and nat gas prices for a while now.

That said, the biggest benefit to these companies is NOT higher prices anymore.

It’s LONGEVITY at $60+ and $3+.

$COG slashes their inventory numbers after updating them for the first time in 8 years. Yikes.

Even if we took their new estimates at face value (I don’t, but more on that below), they are now saying they have ~550 locations versus 2900.

Oops?

Let’s break it down shall we? Prior to this update investors were led to believe COG had 2900 locations.

They didn’t distinguish spacing, lateral lengths, EURs, interval, etc. all they were given was “decades of inventory” with industry leading wells at their 4.4 bcf/1000’.

That’s the starting point.