Ex JPM, Salomon & HF principal. Former rates trader. I don't tweet at you: chill.
Co-host of @2graybeards and host of @charityhedge
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Feb 8, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There are many styles of trading.
There are people who have fundamental views and stick with those positions through thick and thin, regardless of P/L.
There are people who are just technicians and look at technical indicators only.
And everything in between...
Then there are people who much prefer to be out of the market most of the time and just pounce at levels, with a combination of direction given by fundamentals and the levels given by technicals.
That's me. Less stress, less risk, higher odds of potential reward.
Jan 5, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Something strange happened to me yesterday.
Got this text message...
What would you do? I replied: No.
Immediately got this:
Dec 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Pointless trying to do predictions for end 2023 prices. It's going to be black or white: the economy either tanks or it does not.
What tells me that it might, is that the curve has never stayed this inverted for long.
But it's only odds. Odds change...
Which tells me that real data will be more important than ever. The volatility will all be concentrated around NFP and CPI release dates.
Nov 19, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I've been thinking whether it's worth thinking about arbitraging $GBTC. While the 45% discount sounds attractive, here are my concerns: 1. They absolutely refused to provide the one thing that would allay most (but not all of my) fears: the wallet address.
The explanation provided sounds very forced and unconvincing. I am sure experts could figure out quite easily how to provide it without endangering security. 2. The custodian is very unreliable 3. The auditor is very unreliable 4. The ownership structure is complicated
Nov 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
For anyone who might be considering it, I have 2 more places on charityhedgefund.com before I close. I try to answer all questions ASAP and give attention to every member who needs it. Just can't manage more than a certain # and it would not fair on current members
if I diluted the experience. I have been doing it for 7yrs and I think everyone has derived benefit. You can download the whole 7yr stream from the website, to verify if it would be useful to you. I trade mainly bonds, but that gives you a good insight into every other
Nov 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting thread. I agree. The added value has to be (imho): 1. The explanation as to WHY. 2. How that WHY fits in with everything else, Tough to explain in a tweet, but it has to be part of a whole, it's no good just saying xx is going up/down. It has to fit in with what
other asset classes are doing or saying they will do and why. When I recommend something, I try to explain it in terms of that the yield curve is doing and saying, what the spreads of bonds to equities is doing/saying, what vol and its YC will allow. In short, a holistic approach
Nov 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A better question would be why "this is unacceptable"? Because you are trying to uphold the "rules based World order"? Because you are "protecting the rest of Europe"?
I don't buy either. Those are not YOUR reasons.
I think it is unacceptable because you don't want to be a Russian vassal, you want to be free to join the EU & NATO and have prosperity and security in your country, to develop according to your talents. Who would not?!
That has a price.
Nov 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I have never kept a journal. But many members of my family did and I keep them well preserved. Because they are living history & therefore valuable. And you can refer back to them and marvel at how the wheels of history revolve and rhyme.
Here is an example:
I was reading about the current exodus of Russians, many of whom are headed to Belgrade, where they don't feel threatened & have some affinity in language & culture. Not much, but some.
That sparked a memory from something I had read in my great-grandmother's journal.
Nov 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Differences between the US & the UK, fact 185: American TV is unwatchable. It's as if the channels competed on who can bring on the stupidest person on the planet with the weirdest take. On anything and everything.
God, I miss Newsnight.
I would gladly pay double for the BBC.
Even the most respected "current affairs" program in US, which is called "60 minutes" (another lie, should be called 18 minutes, because the other 42 are all ads) features NO debate. Just a narrative. It's all propaganda. Zero examination of facts.
Aug 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Of course you can. If your definition of "prosper" is to be middle of the road, have a huge welfare system at your back, pay high taxes and ask permission from the State to take a piss, Europe is your ideal. And you should stay.
But those were not my ideals when I was in my 20s.
If however you are entrepreneurial, innovative, wish to have the freedom to make your own way and are not afraid of the consequences of failure, then Europe is not a congenial environment.
Heck, I have nothing against Europe as a place to live. European myself.
Jul 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
OMG, what a pillock!
If that happens, the last thing you want to own are bonds. They will get destroyed. Limit down and then some.
And before some clever clogs whines: but the short end will go up, nah, nah...
Those are called notes, not bonds. If this guy can't get even the terminology right after 50 years, then...
Jul 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Watched that #TheGrayMan movie last night. Meh...harmless fun. But what irritated me beyond measure & made the whole "suspension of disbelief" almost impossible, thus ruining the experience, was the utter ignorance & impossibility of the Geography concerned.
You fly from Chang Mai to Baku?
How THE FUCK do you overfly Turkey, you ignorant American filmmakers?
You go from Berlin station to Vienna in minutes in a CAR? I'd like to see you try!
Prague seems to be just round the corner from Vienna, a 20 minute drive. You pillocks!
Jul 10, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
@AndreasSteno@Mayhem4Markets The problem with that chart is that it measures gold in nominal dollars. Now go back and discount the price by inflation from the beginning of x axis.
@AndreasSteno@Mayhem4Markets I mean, comparing real something with nominal something else is what I would expect from a snake oil salesman…
Jun 25, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
History does not repeat itself but it rhymes. And it accelerates. Rome had seven kings, then it became a Republic. The USA had kings, then it became a Republic. Rome became the only Superpower in its time during the Republic. So did the USA.
Veterans were favoured in Rome. Identical in USA. While a superpower Rome morphed into a family led succession Empire. Bush, Clinton, Trump are the equivalent of the Julii and Claudii.
Jun 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Well, in a political sense, this is actually true.
Italy, throughout the post-war period, relied on Lira devaluation as primary tool of economic policy, to avoid a root-and-branch reform of their economy and above all of the public sector, which has been a disaster since 1870.
When Italy joined the Euro, it was obvious to just about anyone with 2 braincells (and, contrary to what some might say, Italians are some of the smartest traders and bankers out there, since...forever) that at some point, Italy, in the absence of devaluation possibility...
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