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Noon in Korea Profile picture
Noon in Korea
@NoonInKorea
Diplomacy. Geopolitics. North Korea Kremlinology. South Korea politics. East Asia regional security. Energy & Power. NoonInKorea@protonmail.com
Oct 17, 2018 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Donga reports an economic delegation composed of representatives of US agricultural & German mining businesses visited NK in late Sept. The German concern is interested in NK's magnesite/graphite reserves and US agro biz looked at investment opportunity
news.donga.com/List/PoliticsN… The timing of this was late Sept when Pompeo's 4th visit had been decided and US-NK dialogue was ongoing. NK treated this economic delegation well. The US concern is supposedly the largest one that sells agro & animal protein prods (Cargill, Tyson Foods?)
sedaily.com/NewsView/1S5Y4…
Oct 11, 2018 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Foreign Minister Kang in another mini-controversy after Japan's Nihon-Kezai reports SoS Pompeo "blew up on her" after learning about the military agreement signed by SK and NK at the Pyongyang summit. N-K quotes Pompeo, "What do you think you're doing?"
news.joins.com/article/230344… N-K: "There was no prior discussion about the nature of the military agreement SK struck with NK." Pompeo was said to be particularly upset about the 'no fly zone' established within proximity of MDL. US reconnaissance planes regularly fly near the area for surveillance of NK
Oct 6, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Japan declines to attend a naval event in Jeju after repeated calls by SK not to arrive with its Rising Sun Flag symbolizing Imperial Japan. However the real reason why it chose not to attend is more intricate.
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20… What happened is SK kept telling Japan's Embassy and Defense Minister that only the national flag should be flown. But Japan insisted it will come bearing the Rising Sun Flag. Then apparently SK NSA Chung and new Defense Minister Jung came up with a ploy
english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2018/…
Sep 22, 2018 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Thae Yong-ho on NK's nuke strategy: "At the 7th Party Congress in May 2016, NK decided how to ensure becoming a nuclear state. The strategy decided was: India + Pakistan + alpha (α). And what's that alpha? The madman strategy of appearing to be irrational
That alpha reigned until the new year and the "fake peace initiative" started after that which reordered the sequence of nuke negotiations: it was always denuke then remove sanctions. But NK added to the sequence "Build Trust First," then remove sanction + econ coop, then denuke
Sep 22, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of behind stories coming out now that most SK visitors have returned and gotten some rest. Kim Yo-jong supposedly gave birth just prior to the first inter-Korean summit (4.27). No surprise: she looked somewhat pregnant when she visited PyeongChang news.donga.com/List/PoliticsN… KJU was asked how he would deal with flag-waving conservative demonstrators when he visits Seoul. KJU: "Many people are telling me not to go but I definitely will go. I know about them but will not pay them any attention. I know there can be demonstrators"
news.joins.com/article/229946…
Sep 22, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
How did SK's entertainment delegation do in NK? Did Zico, Ailee, Ali and the magician perform? If so, how come no footage is available. They did perform in front of KJU on the evening of their arrival. No footage available yet except for Ali at Mt. Baekdu
news.joins.com/article/229940… But Ali (blonde hair) sang under poor acoustic conditions on a windy mountaintop and performed well. She belted out "Jindo Arirang" which is the regional version of Arirang that's known all over the world. KJU seems to be fascinated by her performance
Sep 22, 2018 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
SoS Pompeo: Trump and KJU could meet again "before too long." What has to happen 'for them to meet? "There's much more work that remains to be done." Implies another trip to Pyongyang (his 4th) may be necessary to set up another Trump-KJU summit
nbcnews.com/politics/polit… Former State Dept Korea Specialist Joseph Yun believes the next KJU-Trump summit could be decided at the UN General Assembly next week. NK Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho may interact with Pompeo (or even Trump) there while Moon is coming to meet with both
rfa.org/korean/in_focu…
Sep 22, 2018 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
NK's KCTV airs 15-minute footage of Moon and KJU on top of Mt. Baekdu, holding and raising hands to show unity: "This astonishing moment will forever be etched in Korean history." KCTV also shows Ri Sol-ju and Mrs. Moon walking arm in arm
This wasn't part of what was shown in SK but it's on KCTV broadcast. What is it? What's engraved on one side of Mt. Baekdu. Call it sacred graffiti. It replicates KJI's handwriting: "Mt. Paektu=sacred mountain of revolution. KJI, engraved 2.16.1992"
Sep 21, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
K-pop artist Ali singing Arirang on top of Mt. Baekdu surrounded by Moon, KJU and hikers. She's singing a modified version called "Jindo Arirang," which despite the name Jindo (as in canines) is really representative of the greater Joella region
Samsung's Lee Jae-yong and football great Cha Bum-keun clapping. Not the best acoustics on a windy mountain top. Ali is known for R&B and folk genre singles, not really band plays. That's why Jindo Arirang is right up her alley, excuse the pun
Sep 21, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Korea Gallup has Moon climbing even higher: by 11% to 61%. Maybe have a summit every other month? Well summits are supposed to be a sometime thing. The test is 2 weeks from now: how much of the gain he holds on when the secular trend is downward If the economy shows no sign of turning around, the downward trend will resume and he'll lose what he gained today. That's why SK's 2 top economic ministers didn't go to Pyongyang: they were told to stay home, focus on the economy, fix rising home prices news.joins.com/article/229751…
Sep 20, 2018 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
As we've said, there is more to life than denuclearization and Moon is enjoying some downtime on top of Mt. Baekdu, which is the spiritual and mythical home of the Great Leader clan. All 4 came all the way down to the lake shore, which is a volcanic crater
nocutnews.co.kr/news/5035298 This is how they got to Mt. Baekdu: flew from Pyongyang to Samjiyon, then got into a bus, then into a tracked vehicle, then into what S Koreans are calling "cable cars." They're gondolas. The top of Mt. Baekdu seems to be crisscrossed by gondola lifts
yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2018/… …
Sep 20, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
What's clear is Moon failed to coax KJU into coughing up his nuke inventory, which may have sufficed in ending the Armistice. That's prolly why he became grim-faced when the second session ended early. He realized he hit the wall. But he has other agendas
Why is the inventory so important? It's kind of elementary but not realizing the obvious means getting distracted by NK. You can't make NK denuke if you don't know what it has. Plus cross-checking is involved since the US knows where key facilities are. It's always the first step
Sep 20, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Here's the official English version of what's now being called the Pyongyang Declaration (vs. Panmunjom Declaration) signed by KJU and Moon yesterday. At least one place is different from what Moon said during his speech. What stands out? The ordering
koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/201… The bullets are in the order of importance as they were in the Panmunjom Declaration and the Singapore Statement. The first bullet refers to the military agreement signed separately, why? It's necessary for ending the Armistice which is now the official objective of both SK & NK
Sep 20, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
What exactly did Moon watch when he went to the Rungrado Stadium and delivered his 7-minute speech and was applauded 12 times in the process)? Was it "Brilliant Fatherland?" Mainly yes but with custom-tailored content for Moon
Actually there was no title. KCNA said Moon tok in "mass gymnastics & artistic performance." No mention of Brilliant Fatherland, why? Prolly negotiated & some of the content expunged. Moon's boss Roh got in hot water after attending Arirang games in 2007
news.donga.com/List/PoliticsN…
Sep 19, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
It really depends on how you spin this. Moon's National Security Adviser Chung EY just spoke: "It looks like the US and NK could make progress in their negotiations." Here he was earlier waiting outside the conference room with Kim Yo-jong
yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2018/… Here's how former Minjoo Party chair saw it: "It went beyond what we expected. Moon is a world-class negotiator. KJU mentioned denuclearization for the very first time and permanently dismantling Tongchang-ri's missile launch facility is a huge progress"
Sep 19, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Yes, he's coming. Plus another NK orchestra will visit in October. Other steps outlined in the declaration suggest NK-SK are moving toward a peace regime. But shutting down Yongbyon is entirely conditional and the US has to act first (Tongchang-Ri isn't) koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/201… You would never get that reading 90% of the articles coming out now. But how big a concession is Tongchang-Ri and the clause re inspectors? The clause is vague: the term inspectors isn't precise ... the term really means "witnesses"; in other words, there will be no due diligence
Sep 19, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
So what agreements did Moon & KJU reach? 6 bullet points here and only 1 bullet is devoted to denuking (5th). The first is reducing military tensions and this bullet point defers to the military agreement signed earlier by Song Young-moo and Roh Kwong-chol
news.donga.com/Main/3/all/201… Go straight to the 5th bullet point dealing with nukes: "NK-SK agreed to a denuclearized Korean peninsula that promotes peace and will take immediate steps to that end.
① NK will permanently decommission Tongchang-Ri's engine testing & missile testing site w/inspectors present.
Sep 19, 2018 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Moon and KJU are signing not joint statements but a "military agreement." This is to fulfill aspects of the Panmunjom Declaration dealing with reducing tensions around border (DMZ/MDL/NLL) areas. This is not the joint statement, which may come later.
Now we know why fired Defense Minister Song Young-moo went to Pyongyang. They needed his autograph. On the NK side is defense minister-equivalent Roh Kwong-chol, who signed the agreement.
Sep 19, 2018 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Day 1 is over. Day 2 starts at Baekhwawon, the state guesthouse where SK guests stayed over. KJU and Moon were seen earlier walking the halls with what look like Remingtons in the background. Another round of talks are scheduled to take place anytime now
Who's in charge here? Who else but Kim Yo-jong, who seems to be coordinating everything. People are wondering whether KJU & Moon will be able to hammer out another joint statement. If they do, it'll be called the "9.18 Declaration" or "9.18 Joint Statement"
Sep 18, 2018 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Couldn't have guessed that the Jaebol magnates would all be traveling in the first class section. These are Jaebol 3.0s, i.e., the 3rd generation. Samsung and KT scions in the front. Hyundai COO and LG scion KKM, who was actually adopted ... by his uncle Here come the jocks. This is Cha Bum-keun, SK's greatest football player who scored 98 goals in Bundesliga. "Who will you be meeting?" "I'm not really sure. But I just want Korean football to do well"
Image
Sep 18, 2018 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This is why Moon was late. He had an open car parade with KJU through Pyongyang streets that are lined with more greeters. This resembles year 2000 when 30,000 Pyongyangites showed up. They're yelling, "Korean Unification, Korean Unification"
Moon loves pressing the flesh and kissing babies. So he ventured out of the car and started to wave back. Now is this safe? Was it part of the negotiated protocols? The guy between KJU and Moon seems rather taken aback.