Omnipotent Moral Busybody Profile picture
One of the few remaining politically neutral social scientists. Married to a smarter, politically neutral social scientist.
Deplorable Skymom Profile picture Merc2723-President-Elect2020 Profile picture Daniel Burkholder 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Profile picture Prescott Profile picture 5 added to My Authors
30 Nov
1/6 The absurdity of this article is staggering, especially from the president of a top-50 global university:

☑️ Glaringly bad use of % positive
☑️ Claims of testing benefits without evidence
☑️ Ignores the financial & mental health costs

news-gazette.com/coronavirus/th…
2/6 He praises the school's low %-positive rate while ignoring the obvious sampling bias.

@Illinois_Alma tests asymptomatics 2x/week, while other areas are testing a much lower % of asymptomatics.

It is why experts have criticized %-positive:
patch.com/illinois/palos… Image
3/6 He also claims that the massive testing regime has helped "crush" the virus on campus.

Evidence, however, suggests that the rate of testing/student has no impact on how CV19 spreads on campuses:
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
1/11 THE RISE OF STILLBIRTHS DURING COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS

This issue continues to be underreported.

Stillbirth rates during CV19 lockdowns have spiked globally and the reasons are twofold.

Why this issue has not been widely reported is also multifaceted. #RationalGround
2/11 A primary reason for the uptick in stillbirths due to lockdowns is from reduced access to medical care:

“CV19 has triggered a devastating secondary health crisis for women, children and adolescents due to disruptions in life-saving health services,”
reliefweb.int/report/world/n…
3/11 The potential increase in the developing world due to lockdowns is devastating:
“A pandemic-induced 50% reduction in health services, could cause nearly 200K additional stillbirths over a 12-month period in 117 low and middle income countries…”
news.un.org/en/story/2020/…
Read 11 tweets
30 Oct
1/6 SPORTS ARE NOT A PRIMARY VECTOR OF COVID-19

Somehow it has still not gotten through to journalists and politicians that athletic competition rarely spreads CV19.

This has been shown at practices, in games, and even in the stands.
#LetUsPlay #RationalGround #NoNewNormal
2/6 Across professional sports, @williamfleitch notes:
“...there hasn’t been a single documented instance of a player getting COVID from an on-field event.”

“…leagues are starting to... [put] spectators in seats. This hasn’t led to any mass outbreaks...”
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
3/6 At the H.S. level, even indoor, contact sports like basketball saw almost no issues with practices.

A survey in Illinois indicated that during fall practices only 9% of 546 schools had a CV19 case and only 0.3% had more than 2 players get CV19.
il.nhsbca.org/returntoplay
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
1/7 KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
Keeping up with the daily barrage of CV19 information can be hard; here is a summary of a month’s worth of studies & articles.

Hopefully this will help combat the panicked CV19 decisions being made.

Citations are listed in the thread. #RationalGround
Read 7 tweets
26 Oct
1/7 The director of @CU_PublicHealth recently responded to a Covid-19 question in the local paper (@news_gazette).

The Question: Is Florida outperforming Illinois in its CV19 response?

Her Answer: No, Florida is doing much worse than Illinois.

Is that True? #RationalGround
2/7 If we first look at total deaths/100k since March and cases/100k in the last 30 days (to show the current trend). We see that Illinois is performing worse in both.

Illinois has slightly more overall deaths and almost double the cases.
3/7 Next, looking at current hospitalization data (provided by @HHS) we see again that Illinois is performing worse than Florida with a higher % of hospital beds filled and a higher % of Covid-19 patients in hospitals:
Read 7 tweets
21 Oct
1/7 This would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad.

The University of Michigan is now under a “stay in place order.”

Why don't you take a walk through insanity with me:
2/7 First off the order is in place due to…. you guessed it, cases.

Not hospitalizations, not deaths, but plain old cases:
cnn.com/2020/10/20/us/…
3/7 So why would cases be up? Well the county health department thinks it’s all those maskless college parties.

Call me crazy, but I’ve got another theory... maybe it’s because they’ve tested more people in the last 2 weeks than they tested From March through August:
Read 7 tweets
19 Oct
1/6 HOSPITALS AND COVID-19
Stories of hospitals being overwhelmed from CV19 are often without context

Hospitals operate near capacity, so needing extra space, staff, and resources isn’t uncommon

This graphic provides an overview from past years; 20+ citations are in the thread
2/6 This is not an exhaustive list , but shows the frequency which hospital capacity issues arise:

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/d…

nytimes.com/2004/01/18/nyr…

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17…

cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05…
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
1/5 I tried to ignore the political theatre of the Rose Garden event since I find it a ridiculous use of resources.

Now, however, that Fauci is using it to suggest an outdoor event without masks could cause a large outbreak, it needs to be addressed.
aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/1…
2/5 The first obvious issue is that the event was not only outdoors; it was an indoor/outdoor event.

This makes tying an outbreak to “rose garden” impossible to determine and irresponsible to suggest.
3/5 Next, of the 11 positive cases (out of 107) 5 are constantly around each other in a variety of other indoor situations.

In other words there is no evidence that being near each other in the rose garden was the cause of spread for Trump, Melania, Christi, Conway, or McEnany.
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
1/6 There is a lot of media hyperventilating about Wisconsin because their hospitalizations are up.

The thing is, Wisconsin's recent rise merely puts them at the same level as neighboring "safe" states.
2/6 Well, maybe their ICU's are close to being overwhelmed?

Nope, the state doesn't appear to be near concerning levels.
3/6 But @GovEvers has said field hospitals will be opened next week, so there must be imminent danger, right?

Though possible, it's probably unlikely given how the "need" for field hospitals turned out in the past:
apnews.com/article/virus-…
Read 6 tweets
7 Oct
1/5 Here is a case study on Covid-19 privilege and politics.

City: Urbana, IL
Population: 42,000
CV19 % positive: 0.6%
CV19 Hospitalized: 2
Poverty Rate: 27.3%

The Decision: No in-person classes until 2021:
news-gazette.com/coronavirus/co…
2/5 By any metric Urbana is safe to reopen given their testing levels and low positive %/hospitalizations.

Also, they need to reopen:
“It troubles me that we’re backing off of in-person attendance when these truancy rates are way beyond what we’ve experienced in the past,”
3/5 Urbana's poverty rate is 16.4% higher than the state average; many families need in-person class

“I know we didn’t hear from very many of those families in our public statements, but I hear from them quite often — parents who are begging us to bring our kids back to school”
Read 5 tweets
6 Oct
1/10 IS TESTING WORTH THE PRICE?
The Univ. of Illinois (@Illinois_alma) has been hailed by many as a model of how we should handle testing.

Students are tested twice weekly, and anyone who enters a building must show a negative test.

Are their outcomes worth the cost?
2/10 I compiled data for 7 universities in Illinois along with data from their counties.

Of note is that UIUC's testing level is as much as 60x larger than the other institutions.
3/10 The theory promoted by many is that increased testing finds more cases and helps prevent the spread of CV19 in a community.

Thus more testing should result in less hospitalizations, less ICU issues, and less death in a community.
Read 11 tweets
2 Oct
1/6 THE QUIET PROFESSIONALS
These are the researchers who often get lost in the noise of Twitter. Their important work at times runs counter to the accepted Covid-19 dogma and thus does not get amplified.

Read their work, share it with others, and seek out more. Image
2/6 @mgmgomes1
Gabriela found the potential herd immunity threshold for CV19 and could be much lower than predicted. Her research was rejected because it could impact public policy and influence a relaxation of strict CV19 lockdown mandates.
3/6 @WesPegden
Wes and others proposed age-based CV19 mitigation strategies given the small impact CV19 has on younger populations.

This would allow schools to open and younger populations to live relatively normally while protecting vulnerable groups.
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
1/7 This isn't an isolated incident.

There is a crisis of loneliness/depression in our elderly population and it is caused by poorly thought out lockdown policies that value CV19 prevention over everything else.

We've know about this issue for months:
2/7 Oct 1st: Elderly Hardest Hit By Covid-19 As Lockdown Loneliness Impacts Mental Health
ewn.co.za/2020/10/01/eld…
3/7 Sep 9th: “People are really distressed, particularly the elderly,” said Bolden. “They have been cut off and they’ve been made to feel vulnerable when they didn’t feel vulnerable before.”
theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
Read 7 tweets
29 Sep
1/7 WE’RE NOT ALL IN THIS TOGETHER

People that haven’t followed the CV19 panic closely may wonder why so many are skeptical about the mainstream narrative that is parroted daily by many leaders and news outlets.

This thread provides 5 examples from just the past week: Image
2/7 GOVERNMENT
Starting at the top level, there is consistent misrepresentation and often outright deception as @andrewbostom points out in his response to Fauci v. Paul:
3/7 MEDIA
In the face of obvious mistakes that lead to poor decision making (as shown by @alexanderrusso), media organizations still continue to push a narrative of panic and fear:
Read 7 tweets
26 Sep
1/5 COLLEGE FOOTBALL & “THE SCIENCE”

Given the last 2 months have been a whirlwind of events surrounding college football and Covid-19, I decided to construct a super-sciencey (extra busy) graph to help explain what has happened.
2/5 I know what you’re saying, “Whoa OMB, that’s just TOO much science!!”

So here is a simpler graph that shows the most important trend:
3/5 You also probably noticed that “The Science” in the first chart seemed extremely variable; often changing from day to day.

That is because, unlike Research & Data, “The Science” is a term made up by politicians combing some of the things on which they primarily focus:
Read 5 tweets
24 Sep
1/8: 7 MONTHS, 7 LETTERS

You may not know it due to the lack of media coverage, but there has been a letter written each month since March by separate groups of doctors, experts, and citizens denouncing varying aspects of the CV19 panic

Here are those letters - #RationalGround Image
2/8: March
“...the hospital system must continue to balance the needs of caring for patients with COVID-19 while providing vital services to others in the community…”
aha.org/lettercomment/…
3/8: April
“Staggering numbers of people have lost jobs, incomes, and ability to live life normally, all of which lead to loss of life that could quickly exceed losses from the virus.”
ronjohnson.senate.gov/public/index.c…
Read 8 tweets
23 Sep
1/4 FAUCI FACT CHECK

Rand Paul suggested that herd immunity from CV19 could be reached at much lower % than Dr. Fauci has implied.

Dr. Fauci responded by saying “I believe you’re alone in that”

Facui is 100% wrong. Here are multiple sources validating Dr. Paul's argument. Image
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
1/5 Do we even have a functional news media at this point? #twill

@GovPritzker said high school sports can’t resume due to safety and then referenced a CV19 outbreak involving a baseball team in Illinois

Spoiler alert: He misrepresented the situation to fit his agenda
2/5 From the news about the cases, it is clear the players DID NOT contract CV19 due to baseball related activities. The majority of the players live together in off-campus housing and contracted it from those environments.

Fun fact, high school students don’t live together.
3/5 Reports indicate 30 of the cases are related to players and 50% of players tested were positive; there’s only 20 rostered players and no mention of how many were tested. Anyone concluding that baseball caused the outbreak or the players were the vector are making a huge leap.
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep
1/6 Covid-19 and the Rise of "Soft Despotism"

Alexis de Tocqueville coined the term in the 1800s. It describes how a country can be overrun by a litany of small, complicated rules and how this type of administrative control breeds fear, uncertainty, and doubt in a populace.
2/6 “After having thus successively taken each member of the community in its powerful grasp and fashioned him at will, the supreme power then extends its arm over the whole community.”
3/6 “It covers the surface of society with a network of small complicated rules, minute and uniform, through which the most original minds and the most energetic characters cannot penetrate.”
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
1/4 The alarming thing about this video isn't college students showing little concern for CV19 rules.

The alarming thing is our private health records are now tied to State IDs and news organizations disclose health information seemingly without penalty.
cbsnews.com/video/college-…
2/4 Where are the civil liberty organizations, progressives, and other individuals who have had frustrations in the past about the Patriot Act?

You'd think this would be a focal point of the ACLU, but their page on medical privacy mentions nothing on CV19 but does have this: Image
3/4 It's also strange that @CBSNews made no attempt to blur the faces of the individuals in the video.

In essence, a national news organization just disclosed the private medical information of multiple people without their consent.

Given past lawsuits, this seems problematic: Image
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
1/10 Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo): Panic, Profit, and Denial.

This is the story of how the VP of Growth for an Online Ed. Company unjustly helped lock down the world and in the process saw his fame grow and his company secure millions in investments.
2/10 Pueyo wrote the original CV19 panic article back in March; it received more than 40 million views.

It was based on the idea of exponential growth (disproven by @MLevitt_NP2013), focuses on cases counts, and concludes we must go into severe lockdown
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
3/10 This article was then touted by leaders, celebrities, and scientists as evidence that lockdowns were necessary.
buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanha…
Read 10 tweets