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OHA Context & Commentary Profile picture
OHA Context & Commentary
@OHAinContext
This account tweets context for OHA data, usually daily cases compared to projected data. Not OHA affiliated. Feel free to use my graphs.
Oct 21, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
It's been about a month since I reviewed one of the OHSU report/forecast from Dr. Graven.
If you're unfamiliar with it, it's the most honest assessment of the data we're going to find. It is released bi-weekly, the latest from last week is here
ohsu.edu/sites/default/… I use an online service called draftable which highlights changes/updates. Normally I compare to the last version, but I was quite busy around 1st Oct, so don't have that version, just 16 Sept and 14 Oct.

Nonetheless, here's the highlighted changes
draftable.com/compare/meYXIp…
Jan 5, 2022 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Well, it's WaveWednesday, and that means it's time to compare this current wave to all the past ones... sigh.
Omicron wave started 20 days ago, Dec 17th, when a low of 752 cases per day averaged over the previous 14 days was observed.
We are now at 2,311. This surpasses the previous 14 day max of 2,247 observed 59 days into the Delta wave, which peaked ~13x above where it started.
If Omicron follows a similar trajectory, we would peak at 9,603 cases. (it will not follow a similar trajectory)
Jan 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
If this projection is correct, and people currently infected with CoVid test positive in the coming days, currently one in every ~30 Oregonians has CoVid, most likely the ultra-contagious Omicron variant, which seems to evade immunity to a high degree. If this rate holds, everyone in Oregon will have had CoVid within the next month.
This is unfathomable, yet somehow possible.

Only ~20% of Oregonians have a booster shot at this point, ~30% are unvaccinated, and ~20% have no immunity from vaxx/infection at all.
Dec 17, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
OHSU finally took a swing at modeling Omicron effects on hospital census and it's... not great.
Using Denmark as the basis, shows 2,000 additional hospitalized by Feb, if we double booster administration and return to the most conservative behaviors.
ohsu.edu/sites/default/… I do think this is optimistic from a timing standpoint, as we are likely going to see omicron impact us sooner than the first week of January as they have modeled.

Without increased booster administration, and behavioral changes, the forecast is for 3k hospitalized.
Dec 16, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
WaveWednesday is back for one last Summer '21 update (Delta) before the Winter'22 (omicron) wave starts...
We are still 4.5X the trough observed 161 days ago, but down 65% from the peak 105 days ago.
Delta was supposed to come and go quickly, it did not. The last 3 weeks may end up being reclassified as the start of the omicron wave, as we hit a trough prior to thanksgiving, and even though the thanksgiving bump looks like its behind us, we might not drop below that low 2-week avg of 714 before we start dealing with Omicron.
Nov 25, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
In Oregon, yesterday was day 140 of the Summer CoVid wave, the day before Thanksgiving...
That means it's time for a WaveyWednesday update, comparing this wave to all the others in Oregon.
So, happy holidays, more that 2,000 have died from CoVid in these 140 days, this "summer". Until this week, we didn't actually know that. A month ago OHA announced that it had found more than 500 deaths which were not reported over the course of this summer, at that time there were about 1,000 deaths reported in this wave, horrific yes, but not 2,000...
Nov 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Boosters working! This is a truly incredible result for the following thing that might get lost on first glance -

The 90%+ efficacy is not compared to NO vaccine, it’s compared to a 2-dosed population.

The step UP in immunity is relatively as much as getting 2 doses when you had no immunity.
Aug 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
3,036 cumulative deaths, and OHA can't be bothered to close restaurants. "The economy!" the capital owning class cries!
I'll remind them that the 9/11 fund median payout was $1.7M per person for wrongful death
Do Oregon's businesses have $5B laying around for the next 3,000 dead? At some point these deaths go from accidental, to negligent, to wrongful. Someday a judge will decide that but certainly lifting all restrictions as delta variant bears down is a marker that will be forever remembered in the losing battle against idiocy.
July 1st, negligence day.
Aug 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“3 feet of physical distancing recommended by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which SPS is following “to the extent possible,” is an outdated standard based on less transmissible variants.” “Infections will still be introduced into the school population through unvaccinated contacts of children, and breakthrough infections are on the rise given waning protection, a concern among school employees who were prioritized for vaccination earlier.”
Aug 21, 2021 • 17 tweets • 8 min read
New OHA projection came out yesterday and it's a pretty dire prediction, as I'm sure you've seen. I think it's important to remember what went into this, and how it compares to other models that came out yesterday-ish from OHSU and IHME First things first, a link to all the models I'm going to be talking about:

OHA 8/19:
oregon.gov/oha/covid19/Do…

OHSU 8/18:
ohsu.edu/sites/default/…

IHME 8/19:
healthdata.org/sites/default/…