OSINT Analyst focused on China & Taiwan. Special coverage on Operation Epic Fury and its strategic impact on cross-strait dynamics and Indo-Pacific security.
Apr 12 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
My take on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz:
The impact of a Strait of Hormuz closure appears overstated in many discussions.
Roughly 80% (about 16 million bpd) of the normal ~20 million barrels per day flowing through the strait has already been replaced or rerouted through alternative means.
Why it matters: This significantly reduces the potential disruption compared to earlier assumptions about a total shutdown.