Software, finance, and startups 💰| check out my newsletter on the software industry: https://t.co/XmJzDA25p5
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May 1, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Most people don't fully understand the impact of stock-based compensation (SBC).
Technology companies give employee equity awards out like candy.
Here is what you need to know about SBC and the related dilution 👇
How is SBC calculated?
SBC expense is determined on the date it is granted to the employee, which is usually within a quarter of when they are hired.
A fair value is assigned each share and is then recognized as an expense as those shares "vest"
Apr 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Alteryx earnings call:
Analyst Q: With full year reiterated guide -how do you give us comfort that the 11% headcount cut doesn't have any disruption with go-to-market or sales capacity?
CRO: Easy. We will just increase sale rep productivity
They also said, like everyone else, that deal cycles continue to lengthen, there is increased scrutiny, budgets constrained, etc.
Seems optimistic to think you can continue to increase productivity if the above is true….
Reps will already be more busy with current deals
Apr 23, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
99% of people don’t know how to properly trick investors.
Here is what you need to know 🧵
Annual recurring revenue (ARR)
-Use exit ARR
-Remove “one-time” discounts
-Use contracts with 90-day opt outs with full refund
-Give a lot of professional services away for free so everything can count as ARR
-Or just count pro serv as ARR
Feb 17, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
If revenue growth slows, companies need to show strong free cash flow generation in order to have top valuation multiples.
Lots of companies are figuring out how to balance revenue growth slowdowns and becoming more efficient.
Quick 🧵
A company’s stock price can increase from:
1⃣Increasing the level of revenue
2⃣Increasing valuation multiples (i.e. multiple expansion) such as EV/Revenue
Feb 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Domo’s financial metrics are one of the worst for public B2B SaaS companies
-CAC payback period of ~9 years 🤯
-FCF margin of (5%)
-NTM revenue growth of 9%
-SBC as % of revenue = 28% 🙈
-$71M in cash and $107M in debt due in two years 😬
Probably a good PE target tho. 🧵👇
I don’t think Domo will have many choices other than to be acquired given their financials. So they will be seeking it out.
But I think there are positives of Domo that makes an acquisition by PE attractive.
Keep reading…
Feb 11, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Skillz might have been the craziest valuation at a peak of ~$12B.
Now it’s only worth $315M, which is still too much.
Twitter finance influencers and even Motley Fool once said it was a buy.
Quick 🧵on how it could have been avoided.
A quick like at the P&L would show screaming red flags
Some said “hey, gross margins are great! It will be awesome at scale!”
This is not a software company.
If S&M grows faster than revenue then there is a problem. Scale doesn’t help…
Jan 26, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I have finished my series on understanding software financial statements. Links in thread.
Company leaders and investors must understand the Cash Flow Statement.
Here is what you need to know: 🧵👇
The cash flow statement shows the cash inflows and outflows of a company over a specific period of time.
It starts with cash at the beginning of the period, shows the period’s activity, and then the ending cash balance.
Jan 15, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
What does an inverted yield curve actually mean?
And why does it mean a recession is coming?
If you want to destroy your next dinner party then keep reading 👇
The yield curve looks at the relationship between the yield (i.e. investment return) on debt investments with different maturities.
Most commonly used is the relationship between the
1️⃣3-month or 2-year US treasury debt yield
2️⃣10-year US treasury debt yield
Jan 12, 2023 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
How to read an income statement (P&L) for software companies.
None of these are necessarily bad ideas but…🧵
CAC will likely get worse before it gets better.
Most major GTM changes will cause CAC to increase at least in the short-term.
PLG for example will require more people, software spend, and attention…all while still fully running your regular motion until PLG is successful.
Nov 16, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Fundraising is much harder than it was at its peak last year.
Q3 was the largest drop in funding in a decade
So how does the new fundraising environment impact your company?
Keep reading...
The obvious point is that average SaaS valuations are down.
In some cases, they are WAY down from the 2021 peak.
As seen below, things obviously got a little too hot last year.
Nov 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Budget season is particularly hard this year.
When sales targets are being missed you need to show your board how you are adjusting on the expense side.
Most VCs are recommending 2 - 3 years of cash runway.
A long cash runway is critical, but…
If you sacrifice too much growth to extend cash runway then it might just be a slow death.
Review your sales plan with your board early and ask them if the planned growth is enough to raise the next round.
Nov 2, 2022 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Most investors and operators don't fully understand the impact of stock-based compensation (SBC).
Technology companies give employee equity awards out like it is candy.
Here is what you need to know about SBC and the related dilution 👇
How is SBC calculated?
SBC expense is determined on the date it is granted to the employee, which is usually within a quarter of when they are hired.
A fair value is assigned each share and is then recognized as an expense as those shares "vest"
Nov 2, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Dual class share structures have come under fire again.
The most discussed right now is how Zuckerberg who owns only ~13% of $META but controls that majority of the votes.
Large investors disagree with what Zuckerberg is doing but he can’t be stopped.
Quick 🧵on dual class
A dual class structure establishes two “classes” of stock.
This is usually presented as Class A and Class B shares. The Class B shares are the ones with higher voting rights.
The typical Class B voting structure is 10:1 ratio for votes per share, while Class A is 1:1.
Nov 1, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Here is a controversial proposal for startup stock options.
Startups should offer long post-termination exercise periods (PTEP). The standard 3 months to exercise after termination is outdated.
Why limit the benefit of options to only those that can afford the exercise price?🧵
Startups are continuing to take longer to go public which can tie up employees’ money in stock options for a really long time.
Also, based on the recent market conditions, startups are riskier than they have been in long time and have less potential upside in many cases.
Oct 31, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A high net revenue retention (NRR) can hide future growth issues.
The split between expansion and new logo growth can be an early indicator of growth problems.
If a company is too reliant on expansion ARR in earlier stages then it will struggle to continue to grow rapidly.
I like this chart from ICONIQ that breaks down expansion vs new logo based on growth motion (PLG vs SLG)
If you have a smaller landed deal but expand quickly then obviously expansion will play a bigger role. This higher NRR *does not* necessarily mean it's a better company tho!