As we wait for Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran, it’s worth looking at the next three days.

Here’s why… The Hamas terror attack that started the war occurred on 10/7.

But in the Hebrew calendar, that day was the holiday of Shemini Atzeret, the day after Sukkot.

Israel views buildings in southern Lebanon that can see into the country as a potential threat, because Hezbollah could have line-of-sight to launch anti-tank missiles or sniper fire.

This pic is from Kiryat Shemona in June, in sight of a Lebanese village a few kilometers away. A "limited" incursion could be to neutralize - frankly, to destroy - these buildings and possibly these towns that look down into Israel.

There are a lot of these towns, and trying to eliminate the threat could destroy a few kilometers of southern Lebanon.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s comments on Wednesday were incredibly significant and worth looking at closely.

A thread… First, he stands firmly by the United States…

“Our ties with the United States are vital, strong, and steady.”

He acknowledges “disagreements,” but emphasizes...

The international condemnation of Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend is a diplomatic win when Israel needs it most.

But does Israel risk squandering that goodwill if and when it retaliates? A lot of that depends on how Israel responds. If Israel strikes Iranian targets in Syria, that's one thing. We have seen Israel do that repeatedly without sparking a larger escalation.

Of course, that would depend on the scale of an operation like that.

The Pentagon waited four days to disclose that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was admitted to the hospital on New Year's Day.

That delay is unacceptable, especially given his crucial position in the national security establishment and world events.

cnn.com/2024/01/05/pol… This is an administration that talked a big game about transparency, and it failed this test. This is a member of the cabinet and the leader of the US military.

He was hospitalized at a time with critical global national security issues. And yet the public knew nothing.

Once again, PM Netanyahu is faced with demands for a prisoner exchange. The families of Hamas’ hostages met with the PM and made it clear they would consider a prisoner swap - approx. 220 Israeli hostages for 6630 Palestinian prisoners released. 1/x "We spoke bluntly and made it clear to the Prime Minister in no uncertain terms that a comprehensive deal based on the everyone for everyone principle is a deal the families would consider and has the support of all of Israel,” said the mother of one of the hostages. 2/x

As we follow another TFR for NORAD operations, I'm watching two aircraft over Lake Michigan - an E-3 AWACS and a tanker (which would fuel up nearby fighters). The AWACS looks like it's in a racetrack pattern, which it could be using to keep an eye on something. The tanker flight track generally follows the winds aloft, which are going west to east.

This was a fascinating story to learn about. @US_SOCEUR developed the Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) to help a country fight back against occupation.

Ukraine has become its proving ground, and other countries have noticed.

cnn.com/2022/08/27/pol… Other quotes that didn't make it into the story --

"The pain that [the Ukrainian forces] apply to the Russians by conducting resistance will have to come in the Russian calculus for other countries" - Kevin Stringer, the lead on developing the ROC

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the US has flown its nuclear command and control aircraft more frequently, a US official told CNN, a sign that the strategic force has responded in some way.

cnn.com/europe/live-ne… Notably, the increase in frequency of the flights occurred even before Russian President Vladimir Putin put his strategic forces, including nuclear weapons, on heightened alert.

The flight from Moscow to Slovakia that flew over Poland and into Bratislava despite the closure of EU airspace to Russian flights was a shipment of nuclear fuel, the Slovak Ministry of Economy told CNN. The aircraft was a Russian military Ilyushin Il-76 cargo aircraft, and it touched down early Tuesday morning.

For the first time in a long time, Israel’s government may look like a bell curve of democracy - a strong center (Lapid, Gantz) tapering out to the right (Bennett, Sa’ar) and left (Michaeli, Horowitz), including the Arabs and every part of society… ...except the ultra-Orthodox, who have pledged allegiance to Netanyahu… for now.

One day later, another contract for Leidos for the exact same amount of money ($17.6M) and the same work, but the source of the funds differs slightly.

Crucially, the completion date is Aug. 31st, 2022... a year after US forces will have left the country. (Could be a typo?)

https://twitter.com/OrenCNN/status/1398043784487784449

Perhaps even more intriguing, MD Helicopters was just awarded a $14.5M contract for contractor logistics support for the fleet of MD 530F light scout/attack choppers operated b the Afghan Air Force (AAF).

A few thoughts on Israel-Gaza, having spent the last six years as the JLM correspondent and watched a dozen or so rounds of fighting. Long thread… An Israeli ground incursion remains unlikely. An incursion means Israeli soldiers will die, and that’s very problematic for Netanyahu. For a politician whose key instinct is to hold power, having a situation where Israeli soldiers die and Hamas survives is damaging politically.

At least three Army bases are now offering incentives for soldiers to receive the Covid-19 vaccine, including additional days off, gym access and reduced movement restrictions.

cnn.com/2021/05/13/pol… Joint Base Lewis-McChord is the latest base to begin offering incentives for troops to receive the vaccine. Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, has been offering some incentives since March, said spokesman Col. Joe Buccino.

It’s hard to draw any conclusion other than that the release of the Trump peace plan is intended to benefit President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This looks like it has little to do with anything related to an Israeli-Palestinian peace process. 1/15 Look at the timing - impeachment hearings for Trump, indictments and an immunity request for Netanyahu, a tough election campaign for Netanyahu after he failed twice to form a government. 2/15