Coinbase's where the action's at. Someone's max bidding as a Taker and still unable to break the 28K. Massive sell wall there it seems. This likely will determine where we go from here. Price started giving way the moment the buy stopped.

1/N: $ARB airdrop to protocol just went live and $PLS is the simply best play on $ARB airdrops to protocols. Our bullish thesis on $PLS and $PEG - arb airdrop, $PLS v2 and Pepe's Game symbiotic relationship w $PLS v2.

https://twitter.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/1650877447196528640

2/N: This shows you the $ARB airdrop as a % of protocols' market cap. Not only is $PLS #4 in terms of airdrop % of MC but it also holds DPX, JONES and SPA. All of which have $ARB airdrop 10%/33%/18% of their market cap.

arbvalues.com

1/N: @ribbonfinance's blockchain settled options platform Aevo is launching within the next few weeks. We are big options traders and were able to test out the product which post led us to also buy $RBN tokens. A thread on Aevo and our investment thesis. 2/N: Most options volume today are on Deribit. Settling on a CEX like Deribit means you are entrusting Deribit to ensure adequate system margin such that all winners' and losers' P&L net off. And there are no unaccountable holes in the system.

Psyched about @RDNTCapital's v2 launch on Friday. Teaser from the beta demonstrating how smooth it is for users to zap into RDNT/ETH LP to qualify for Radiant emissions. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the most exciting thing about v2 for me is allowing only stakers of RDNT/ETH to receive RDNT emissions. The LP is 80% RDNT / 20% ETH and as such this concentrates emissions only in the hands of long term RDNT holders.

1/N: Enter $RUNE. It has been underperforming the alt complex since the start of this year despite headways in partnerships (Ledger and Trust Wallet); and feature upgrades since last year (eg. savers vaults) that have improved value accrual/tokenomics.

https://twitter.com/OuroborosCap8/status/1627511417690791937

2/N: What is $RUNE? @THORChain $RUNE is a trustless non-custodial cross-chain bridge. Most present day bridges present custodial risk and its solving for that. Its clear from @RektHQ's leaderboard that trust-based bridges pose serious risks and this is problem that needs solving.

1/N: Buying BNB here. Think we're close to peak FUD and the BNB/BTC ratio shows it. @cz_binance and @binance has proven time and time again how they sail through storms to re-emerge stronger and I doubt it will be any different this time. Not investment advise, views are my own. 2/N: Wouldn't be surprised as well if @cz_binance steers Binance through this BUSD saga with greater mindshare after - turning crisis into opportunity. Just like it did with the CEX paranoia post FTX.

1/N: 🍄👽🌌♾️💭🌈🌀😵LSDs - what are you playing for into Shanghai?

$LDO - reduction in their hefty $35m/yr emissions (vs $1bn mkt cap) + most accessible leveraged long retail LSD + lowest TVL to FDV. Early investors have all unlocked.

research.lido.fi/t/rewards-janu… 2/N: $RPL - $RPL demand post LEBs = ~$10mn of RPL demand if all NOs reduce from 16E to 8E. Also emission reduction post Shanghai (~$17mn/year vs $400mn MC).

2017 ICO so token is well distributed. No risk of dump by early investors/VCs.

https://twitter.com/Jasper_ETH/status/1601997819438678018

1/N: 🚨THIS IS A BEARISH POST, may cause nausea to some readers. Based on TA cycles, it is likely that SPX will only print a local bottom come late-Jan to early-Mar. This coincides w post 4Q22 results and '23 guide (US banks start reporting mid-Jan). 2/N: An extrapolation of current price trend based on the current regression channel suggests an imminent test of i) the 200 DMA (3.6K) and ii) recent support (3.5K).

1/N: Longing $BNB here. $BNB/$BTC back to pre-FTX levels. Like how speculative empty shell tech stocks died post the dot-com and instead rose companies with strong growth metrics/profitability, the next crypto cycle will be similar. That will certainly put BNB in the spotlight. 2/N: There is no other token (apart from ETH) more value accretive than $BNB. Not to mention the potential growth that will ensue post FTX's collapse. Don't think there will be many aggressive dips as this recent FUD to buy $BNB.

1/N: Lock $BEND for 4 years and get your money back in 7.5 months. How $APE staking can supercharge veBEND's APR to 160%. Spreadsheet included, a 🧵:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

https://twitter.com/ponzidope/status/1601877903884836864

2/N: Locking a token up for 4 years is not for everyone and I wouldn't recommend everyone do it. DYOR. But regardless, the APR figure for veBEND will be up only post $APE staking. This will undoubtedly get attention and induce upside in the token and for that alone I'm long.

1/N: I've been doing lots of work on this one chart - which leads me to think that a retracement is imminent. Blue line = SPX, white line = Fed reserve balance (proxy for liquidity). Very similar to @CryptoHayes' US liquidity condition index. A 🧵:

blog.bitmex.com/teach-me-daddy/ 2/N: First observation from looking at this chart is both line trends in the same direction. The premise is of which is tightening liquidity = risk assets go down. A closer zoom in reveals that SPX recent bounce from 3.6-4K also coincided with the bounce in liquidity from Oct-Nov

1/N: This is going to be a long thread so I'm gna break it down into a couple of sections.

- #1: How Frax works now.
- #2: You can math out through why Frax depeg is difficult.
- #3: How Frax makes money.
- #4: Why FraxLend = ⬆️FRAX
- #5 Why FraxLend = more rev accretive Frax.

https://twitter.com/0xroborosCap/status/1579994835452235777

2/N: Before I start on FraxLend, for those new to $FRAX please read Seba's mirror on Frax. Its a good primer on how Frax works. Its come to my realization that many still mistakenly see FRAX as 85% USDC, 15% FXS.

mirror.xyz/0x5152e31dfF3C…

1/N: @LidoFinance's key value prop is stETH's deep liquidity. But it spends 48M $LDO (~$72mn) per year to sustain that. LDO treasury has ~$260mn. LDO needs to start bribing and owning $CVX @ConvexFinance for it to get onto a path of sustainably maintain deep stETH pools. 2/N: Currently LDO earns ~$14mn in fees from the ETH staked into LDO. ETH staked with LDO * ETH Price * APR * 5% fee to DAO. This is not sustainable compared to the $72mn of emissions spent annually.

$72mn emissions = owning $172mn of $CVX = $60mn in bribes.

1/N: Longing $APE, MAYC and BAYC into the imminent $APE + BAYC/MAYC staking event. 2/N: It has been previously mentioned by @HorizenLabs that staking of BAYC/MAYC + $APE to receive $APE will come in early Autumn. @HorizenLabs is the company developing the staking platform. They are hosting a Twitter Spaces on 22 Sep re this. 🤔

https://twitter.com/HorizenLabs/status/1568653073849159680?s=20&t=ExQiPw2dxsL_zy7qX5F3FQ

1/N: Some SNX bears have been peddling the idea that when inflation ends SNX stakers will dump given the unattractiveness of SNX APR.

Firstly, SNX is a major outperformer today (+17%), so I doubt that's the case. But also... 2/N: many delta-neutral strategies are farming staked SNX vs short SNX-perps which makes SNX trade like water and difficult to pump. Imagine what happens when liquidity reduces in addition to the fees narrative. Divergence btw price and fees are the times to buy SNX.

1/N: 🧵 on i) why $JPEG pumped 40% today, ii) the whales that bought today including @Tetranode and iii) how the latest @JPEGd_69 proposal passed today is in fact a massive FLYWHEEL. 2/N: $JPEG pumped 40% today from 8 to 12 over the course of 2 hours with ~$1.5mn in volume

1/N: Wallet 0xa86 ($28mn net worth) just bought 235K LDO ($460K) over the past 48 hours. Several interesting observations about 0xa86...

Analysis powered by @nansen_ai - @ASvanevik

debank.com/profile/0xa86e… 2/N:

- Its 1377 days old (rather OG)
- 24% of its incoming ETH is from Alameda Interactions with Alameda happened as early as 616 days ago
- 7.5% of its outgoing ETH went to @CryptoHayes (a while back)
- Largest alt positions are $ENS, $LOOKS, $SUSHI, $WILD and $LDO

1/N: Given ETH is testing those levels, I pulled the May low price (LUNA lows) of >200 tokens to compare where current price is vs then. I then did the same for 15 May high (the high before everything collapsed) Some interesting observations. 2/N: Most the the tokens that are trading at levels significantly above the May highs have some sort of new narrative. In other words, its justifiable that it breaks above the May lows given the incrementally new and positive narrative.

1/21: Aura vs Convex. When Aura came out, I was intrigued. Convex minted made many rich in its early days and I thought “could do Aura the same?”. I’ve spent time analyzing but eventually decided against any rotation from Convex into Aura and here are my reasons why. A thread 🧵: 2/21: Convex screamed value when total value of locked veCRV was significantly below the value of Convex. Aura is now $15mn market cap vs $16mn of veBAL that it commands. That’s fair at best.

1/N: Recent proposal to convert up to 95% of CRV farmed by Frax into cvxCRV. Simple math as to how much CRV will be converted into cvxCRV annually when this passes. Conclusion: Convex can grow its CRV deposits by ~20% if this passes.

gov.frax.finance/t/fip-94-fraxb… 2/N: First calculate $ value of CRV emissions into the FRAX/3CRV pool.

- CRV APR into FRAX/3CRV pool = 5%
- FRAX/3CRV TVL = $1.1bn

- $ value of CRV emissions into FRAX/3CRV Pool = $1.1bn * 5% = $50mn

dao.curve.fi/gaugeweight
curve.fi/pools

1/N Here are some stats relavant to the $CVX unlock, make do what you will with it. A 🧵:

My conclusion at the end. Happy to discuss do DM.

Hoping we get a kickass meme out of 'Bullish Prisoners' Dilemma' at this point.

@DefiMoon, @crypto_condom, @C2tP, ,@ConvexFinance 2/N: 53mn CVX is locked in the locker atm. Key dates for chunky unlocks are:
- 27.4mn unlocks 30/6
- 8.7mn unlocks 7/7
- 3.2mn unlocks 21/7
- 3.4mn unlocks 4/8

dune.com/0xroll/ConvexU…