Putin's former economic adviser claims the war would end in a month or two if all energy were sanctioned.

The source is informed, and the logic is clear.

1/9

bbc.co.uk/news/business-… 2/9

With summer approaching, the hit from cutting Russian energy is smaller. Europe's August shutdown softens the impact further.

Let's suppose 1 - 2 months is wrong and it would take 4 months. Would loss of gas May - August be long enough to wreck Germany's economy?

#BrexitFreedomsBill

EU law is retained under EUWA 2018, debated ad nauseam in Parlt

It gave Mins power to remedy legal defects

Parlt of course has power to legislate to change EU law

New Act likely to give Mins power to remove reg burden by Order

Order = scant Parly process

https://twitter.com/mdouganlpool/status/1488202524364529665

To expand slightly.

We don't know exactly what the Bill will include.

gov.uk/government/new…

But one likely content is an Order-making power to alleviate regulatory burdens.

(HMG has itself imposed reg burdens of immense scale!)

HMG press release cites a special status

Russian action to take eastern Ukraine would satisfy the need to avoid climbdown, strengthen control of the territory, and most importantly raise stakes against NATO expansion. Classic brinkmanship: by not provoking a maximal response Putin expands margin for future action.

https://twitter.com/Panda_Chronicle/status/1484644678670725132

Whether this actually happens is anyone's guess, never speculate, but it demonstrates that the "minor incursion" concept is the most dangerous. Full invasion justifies NATO expansion/tough response, while partial action gives Biden the way out he seems to want.

So @stellacreasy continues her campaign to stigmatise photography.

We already have laws against voyeurism and harassment, which all of us should support, and I do.

Has she ever tried being a male photographer? Routinely we are abused, threatened, chased ... I've been casually catcalled as a pervert for taking a photo of an empty beer bottle, I took a photo of a dog burying its ball in the sand and was asked if it was "better than taking pictures of other people's kiddies" and am endlessly challenged, glared at, chastised.

Labour's defeatists are out in force today, following Saint Keir's latest affirmation that #VoteLabourGetBrexit is true.

1: It is open to the UK to apply to #RejoinEU any time it likes. Nothing prevents KS campaigning on that.

2: The EU has a fixed interest in getting UK back. It would represent an historical defeat of Euroscepticism and a 14% expansion of their market.

3: Politics is about leadership. With the consequences of Brexit so real now, it is feasible to argue for Rejoin more effectively than pre-2019.

4: Membership of EFTA precludes

There are some helpful informed threads on NIP/A16 over the last few days. I thought it worth adding one point.

First, to recap.

WA/NIP have direct effect in UK law: action by Ministers that breaches them would be struck down by UK Courts. This is under s7a of EUWA 2018. A16 does not provide carte blanche to overturn NIP. There are conditions: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

These include:

Difficulties, which are
Serious,
Economic, societal or environmental, and
Liable to persist, or
Diversion of trade.

The application of NIP must have led to them.

Thought for Follow Back Friday.

I'm still seeing people who are concerned about feasibility of #RejoinEU on the basis of misunderstanding the accession process.

1: it's a process. Not a request, to be accepted or rejected. Think less slamming door, more, please wipe your feet. 2: no applicant is ready to join when they apply.

Two whole stages, screening and negotiation, are devoted to identifying gaps with EU law, and closing them.

Accession can be thought of as the process of becoming admissible.

I try to stay out of sports politics, not least because I see sport as entertainment only, even if it matters a great deal to many others.

But am I the only one to have some concerns about the current football tournament?

Stay with me ... there's a non-trivial point to this. It's the second in a row, after the World Cup, to have a lopsided draw, and the second in which England are one of the principal beneficiaries.

It's supposed to be a perambulatory tournament, I believe because it's an anniversary edition. Yet one country hosts both ...

OK. Forgive the thread.

Remember @AstraZeneca, the UK company that mysteriously lied about its contract with @EU_Commission, @vonderleyen & @SKyriakidesEU?

At the same time they said EU must get 30m not 80/100m doses they offered vax directly to 4 member states @ higher price.

https://twitter.com/Panda_Chronicle/status/1360655103359909890

That's according to Czech PM @AndreBabis 11 Feb 2021.

euractiv.com/section/politi…

@InlimboV @bakerstherald @catherinemginn @AstraZeneca @Europarl_EN @EP_President @guyverhofstadt There's some other bits ...

khn.org/news/rather-th… @InlimboV @bakerstherald @catherinemginn @AstraZeneca @Europarl_EN @EP_President @guyverhofstadt amp.theguardian.com/business/2015/…

1/ EU-AZ contract row: a disturbing episode.

UK Brexiteers appear to be using health & lives of other human beings to manufacture a situation which they can mischaracterise to discredit the EU, distract from HMG's Covid failures, and crush the nascent #RejoinEU movement. 2/ When the story broke, @nadhimzahawi already knew to frame it as "vaccine nationalism", the media unquestioningly parroted AZ's lines, @Peston eg producing a thread of pure, unattributed-source propaganda.

Eager Brexit supporters have taken to social media claiming ...

Sex scandal of PM's unvetted aide.

Sabisky's agony incel column on reddit included this confession:

"I have a thing for incest erotica myself"

Is this why he organised repentance Mass for the Church?
churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2019/…

@churchofengland @StLukesWallsend
#SabiskyCircle What does Endre Kormos know of Sabisky's views, fantasies and advice?

What do St Luke's or @JustinWelby think of a man who organises Mass for abuse survivors associating with a man who fantasises about incest? And who co-organises those services.

There's more.

#SabiskyCircle