Interesting analyst PT updates after $GDDFF / $FOOD.TO / $FOOD earnings

While maintaining their Buy ratings:

Stifel goes from $18 CAD -> $15 CAD ($11.93 USD)

Scotiabank goes from $13 CAD -> $11.50 CAD ($9.10 USD)

Raymond James goes from $14 CAD -> $12 CAD ($9.55 USD) Waiting to see their model updates once I get the reports, but to me the PT adjustments are due to it being irregular to have a PT >100% above the current price and not have the stock as one of your top picks. (as Stifel's 18 CAD PT was)

The people surprised by the selloff post-positive FDA news in $TMDX and $NNOX must not have been shareholders in $MYOV over the past 4 months

Joking aside, there's a lesson to be learned here for some. With the big positive catalyst now absorbed by the market (whether you think it was properly priced in or not), it seems marginal shareholders now want to focus on cash flows.

$BC acquires 6 New York are Freedom Boat Club locations. These clubs have >600 combined members and membership has grown at a near 30% YoY rate for the past 3 years

brunswick.com/investors/news… When Brunswick acquired FBC in May 2019, it had 20,000 members.

At the end of 2020 it had 38,000 members, implying the membership base is growing at over a 50% CAGR (90% growth over ~1.5 years)

$LPSN With two senior hires to fill the Chief People Officer (Monica Pool Knox) and Chief Marketing Officer (Amber Armstrong) roles

ir.liveperson.com/news-releases/… Knox comes from her previous role as Global Head of HR for the Mixed Reality / AI Platform & Cloud Security / Identity division at Microsoft (8,000 person division) and previous held executive HR roles at Twitter, Sony, CBS Interactive, PepsiCo, Disney, and Verizon.

$GDDFF $FOOD $FOOD.T with a big topline beat (all metrics in CAD)

Revenues up 71% YoY to 100.7M (9.75% beat off of the 91.75M estimate which was adjusted down from 93.75M last week)

Gross margin up 14 bps to 30.44% (more on this below but in-line with consensus) Delivered positive Adj. EBITDA of 0.5M (backing out SBC this becomes 0.9M EBITDA vs. -3.4M in Q2 2020)

FCF of 0.3M without adding SBC vs. -7.3M in Q2 2020

$163M in cash on the balance sheet (33% of market cap)

$BC with two positive developments in the past week.

First, they tripled the size of their i-Jet Innovation Lab at the University of Illinois to support an acceleration of the Company’s ACES (Autonomy, Connectivity and Electrification) strategy This isn’t going to have an immediate impact but shows Brunswick has an eye on the future of boating in the areas of electrification and autonomous driving

$JYNT Posted an incredible earnings beat this afternoon helping to justify the move in shares YTD. Details below:

Revenues beat by 2.2% (up 23% YoY)

EPS beats by 414%! ($0.72 vs. $0.14E but this was aided by a $7.9M tax benefit)

Without the tax benefit, EPS still beat by 34% Operating Income up 115% YoY to $2.8M

Guides revenues to $75M at the midpoint up 28% YoY (3.8% above consensus)

Guides Adj. EBITDA to $11.25M at the midpoint up 24% YoY (3.2% above consensus)

Plans to open 80-100 franchised clinics vs. 70 in 2020 (515 total currently)

$BJ Reported a double small beat in Q4

Revenues beat by <1%

EPS beat by 4.4%

MFI up 11% YoY

Gross margins up 50 bps

No 2021 guidance

Comparable club sales ex. gas up 15.9% YoY

Leverage ratio down to 1.2x Adj. EBITDA from 1.3x in Q3 and 2.8x YoY All time high renewal-rate of 88%

Guides # of members to be flat or better in 2021

Guides MFI growth to be 4-5%

Plan to open 6 clubs in 2021 and 10+ in 2022

Mgmt. expects 2021 membership, sales, and profitability to be well ahead of historical averages

$SPLK Delivered the Q4 it desperately needed:

10% revenue beat

Cloud ARR up 83% YoY

Total ARR up 41% YoY

1M+ ARR Customers up 44% to 510

129% full year dollar-based net retention (includes a bad Q3)

Cloud gross margin of 61.7% vs. 54% Q4 '20

Significant improvement in OCF Important tidbits from the call:

"You will definitely see cash flow revert to positive this year"

"51% of software bookings coming from cloud in Q4" (onto the back half of the model transition)

"Triple digit growth in observability"

"1/3 of cloud customers are new customers"

$JYNT is going to need a massive beat and raise to justify the 73% YTD performance

This is a solid reopening play with a crystal clear path to consistent 20+% growth, but it's now trading at 53x NTM EV/Adj. EBITDA with 15% Adj. EBITDA margins growing revenues at 24% in 2021 I'm considering trimming ~20% of my position before earnings on Thursday

$JYNT did beat revenue consensus by 12.5% in Q3 and posted EPS of $0.11 vs. $0.03E, so there's precedent for a massive beat and raise

One interesting angle on $EVO is the dividend-growth story that is quickly emerging.

Mgmt. has a policy that ~50% of consolidated net profit be returned as an annual dividend. $EVO is now yielding .67%, which doesn't sound to appealing as a dividend play.

However, most dividend paying companies aren't near-monopolies growing 53% YoY with significant operating leverage and a variable dividend policy tied directly to net profit growth

$INMD very quietly posted a very strong quarter today

Revenues up 60% to $75.2M (6.3% beat)
GAAP EPS up 85% to $0.85 (27% beat)
86% GAAP gross margin (87% in Q4 2019)
47% GAAP operating margin (38% in Q4 2019)

International revenues up 102% (now 29% of total)
US revenues up 48% Guides for $250-260M in revenues in 2021 (23.7% growth at midpoint) [$251.2M consensus]

Guides for Non-GAAP EPS of $2.34-$2.45 (13.5% growth at midpoint) [$2.19 consensus]

Highlights from the $EVO / $EVVTY Earnings Report:

Revenue up 68% to 177.7M EUR (9% beat)

EPS up 63% to 0.41 EUR (in-line)

Net Margins up to 45.4% from 44.2%

Dividend raised 62% from 0.42 EUR/share to 0.68 EUR/share EBITDA up 72% to 96.4M EUR

EBITDA (adjusted for non-recurring items) up 107% to 115.6M EUR

EBITDA Margin 54.2% (65.2% adjusted for non-recurring items) up from 52.7%

CAPEX down to ~7% of revenue from ~8%

Cash conversion ratio up to ~78% from ~75%

$EVO / $EVVTY has partnered with at least:

97% of the NJ providers
100% of PA
98% of IN
94% of CO
100% of IL
92% of the nationwide providers

https://twitter.com/skaushi/status/1353050040915218436

Credit to @AltaFoxCapital for the excerpt below, but when you combine $EVO / $EVVTY's stranglehold (via partnerships) on the US iGaming market with % take-rate based contracts, $EVO is by far the best positioned to capture the US iGaming growth with little incremental spend

Reached out to $TRIT IR and they said the 1/18 investor presentation is the same slide deck used at the Northland SPAC Conference

I compared this deck to an old one from Aug. 2020 and the notable differences are below 1) The focus on the new presentation is on Kratos' value proposition and Triterras growth strategy while their older presentation focused on explaining what trade finance was and the niche Triterras sought to fill within the industry

$TRIT call went about as well as possible

Here are the highlights:

2.749B Q3 trade + trade finance volume

878M Q3 trade finance volume (1.7B YTD)

40.7M YTD revenue (17M in Q3)
24.2M YTD net income (10M in Q3)

Run-rate revenue per trader 1.03M Q3 vs. 750k Q2 (37% increase) Q3 traders 66 vs. 61 in Q2 (8.2% increase QoQ)

The 66 traders could have been a much larger number but was limited by internal bandwidth. Significant senior exec. hiring initiative is ongoing, touching Europe, North America, and Dubai (already hired).

Slightly skewed to the bulls side but Rhodium's bad trade not being handled on Kratos is very important news because it validates $TRIT's product-market fit.

https://twitter.com/SeekingAlpha/status/1341043138538815490

I don't think Rhodium not routing all its trades through Kratos is a reason there couldn't be fraud here, as any knowledgable bad actor would think to disguise the scheme using other platforms

A few companies I am considering initiating a position in once I do more diligence and get through the other names in a long research list: $GOCO: ML for Medicare Advantage, 36% proj. revenue growth for 20x forward earnings, binary event risk if Biden gets a public option passed (requires Dems. win both GA runoffs), significant customer concentration, great writeup on this by @richard_chu97 richardchu97.substack.com/p/gohealth-an-…

$TRIT Alright, so the short report doesn't seem too notable given the Rhodium news (which is notable) broke before it was published. If anyone has read the full report behind the paywall, please correct me if wrong. Given the market reaction since 11AM EST, I'll focus on Rhodium. On the surface, losing a customer who represents ~10% of revenue is obviously bad, especially when losing them to

On the other hand, reiterating guidance despite losing said customer is pretty impressive.

Based on this afternoon’s price action there’s a non-trivial chance this is $TRIT

Anyone long $TRIT has to understand Koneru and Maurer had a failed venture (tried to exit before it fell through but unclear if they did).

I detailed in my initiation thread what happened.

https://twitter.com/stockjabber/status/1339273566999760898

The second major concern is the revenue concentration from Rhodium and Netfin (and affiliates).

Related party transactions aren’t ideal, but given the nature of the trade finance industry, it may be needed to help jumpstart interest in Kratos

$TRIT up big off this analyst note which reads very bullish.

I tend to ignore PT of early stage companies such as Triterras, but there are some other key points here I did like First, the comps chosen were $TW and $MKTX which trade at roughly ~36x and ~51x 2021 EBITDA

$TRIT trades at 14.1x 2021 EBITDA with much faster growth and worse EBITDA and net margins

Triterras deserves to trade at a much lower multiple until it proves it can scale its ecosystem