A couple of weeks ago I told folks at a professional conference that I'm predicting Harris will win the electoral college with at least 310 votes. Why? 🧵 Polling, 1. Most of the polls don't use simple demographic weights, they use a formula to adjust results based on various factors the pollster considers important. Well and good, but the rage of women over Dobbs has been discounted by the (heavily male) punditry . . .a mistake.

#WritingLife, #WritingAdvice Taking a moment to remind everyone that there are lots of *different* kinds of writing and they all "count" if they move forward your project. You don't always have to try to "write a bad first draft" to get started. You can . . . If you're really stuck, make a bullet-point list of every single point you'd like to make, go get some lunch, and come back and organize those into "clumps" of things that "seem to go together" and then spend some time figuring out why. You can . . .

I'm not surprised by the election results, and it's largely due to my work on the American Mosaic Project with fine colleagues like @jgerteis, @hartm021, @EvanStewart23, @ajacfrost, @jack_dele (and others).

A thread. (Stop now if you're sick of politics, which makes sense) 1/x In 2014, close to half of Americans and well over 40% embraced a white, Christian cultural heritage as central to American identity -- and to being the kind of person they'd want their son/daughter to marry. (Table below from 2016 @SF_Journal academic-oup-com.ezp3.lib.umn.edu/sf/article/95/…) (2/x)