Beachcomber. good neighbor. amicus Leo. This is not investment advice. Beware of my bias.
May 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Paramount Global $PARA now has a market cap of $9.8B
The Redstone family stake (National Amusements + Shari) is now worth $1.03B. But National Amusements has pledged 4.5% of its shares to its lenders. The family fell below the billion dollar threshold.
Paramount Global $PARA has net debt of $13.7B.
Combined with the Market Cap, the Enterprise Value is $23.5B.
If you do the @MarioGabelli adjustment for Simon & Schuster sale ($2B conservative), EV is $21.5B.
You can adjust again for BET.
May 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Over the last few months Munger & Buffett have said negative things about the movie business.
Film is a vanity investment and, in general, film financiers do not tend to make much $. Franchise IP is far different, however.
BUT…
Film studios are in the DISTRIBUTION BU$INE$$
Movie Distributors have something akin to an oligopoly (though competition can be tough - they try to navigate release dates).
Distributors are in the VIG business. They rake a big take, recoup marketing spend in 1st position, & drive downstream revenue windows / library value.
May 6, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Gabelli on $PARA today 🧵 /1
Paramount is having a learning curve going into streaming. This guy Bob Bakish who runs it is very good. They have 650M shares. The stock is $17. To make the math simple let’s call it $20. That $13B. There’s debt of $12B.
/2
The reason the debt is that high is because the government said they couldn’t merge Simon & Schuster w/ someone. So when I’m spending $25B to buy this company and they’re spending $18B on content -
Feb 18, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Jim Dolan was so candid on the $AMCX call about his industry in a state of flux. Analysts like Rich Greenfield at Lightshed and Phil Cusick at JP Morgan should pay attention. There’s a difference between knowing the path and walking the path. Some highlights here in a short 🧵/1
Dolan gives a state of the union on streaming. And the shift from wholesaler to retailer /2
Apr 10, 2021 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
#LiLu Fireside Chat - Value Investing in China
Columbia Business School
The philosophy of value investing is relatively simple. The practice is hard.
In the beginning I looked for value on the balance sheet (cigar butts). In time that evolved. /1
Greatest input from Charlie Munger was beyond investing - it was a role model in life. "My role model has never failed me and has continued to inspire me." /2
Mar 25, 2021 • 27 tweets • 5 min read
#NickSleep on promoters: Empty Vessels and a Quieter Approach. Upon reflection, it is curious that this quiet attitude extends, in its own way, to the companies in which we have entrusted your dollars: Amazon and Costco do not advertise (no shouting here); /1
Berkshire does not provide earnings guidance;
Amazon, Costco, AirAsia, and parts of Berkshire give back margin to the customer. 2/3rd's of the portfolio is invested in firms that in some way shun commonplace promotional activity and they are no less successful as a result. /2
Mar 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Scott McNealy in a 2002 interview in Business Week when he was still CEO of Sun Microsystems:
“Two years ago we were selling at ten times revenues when we were at U$64.”
/ 1
At ten times revenues, to give you a ten-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for ten straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of good sold, which is very hard for a computer company. /2
