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Skeptic - Analyst - Not investment advice. Check out my articles/research/other nonsense at https://t.co/297GqkCu9I
23 Oct 19
1/ As I've said before, I've spent whatever free time I could over the last week or so going back over $TSLA $TSLAQ earnings calls (back to 2012). It was quite a task. But, as promised, here is a thread on some of my favorite tidbits from those calls (in chronological order)
2/ 4Q12 Earnings call:
As we have all come to know, when Elon says "I'm highly confident that ________" whatever fills that blank has next to no chance of happening. In this case, it was an ex-ZEV credit GM >25%.
In 2013, $TSLA ex-ZEV credit GM was 14.3%
3/ 4Q12 Earnings Call:
The above holds true - this time he upped the ante. Elon was "really highly confident" that $TSLA would be profitable in Q2-Q4 2013. $TSLA posted a net loss in all 3 of those quarters, losing a total of $85.3 million.
Read 24 tweets
6 Feb 19
THREAD on a peculiar contingency in the $TSLA $MXWL acquisition, which may explain the current 55% premium, but raises many more significant questions about $TSLA's motive here. 1/n
2/ In the form 425 (Filing of certain prospectuses and communications in connection with business combination transactions) filed by $MXWL yesterday, you will find this little contingency:
3/ This means that if $TSLA is trading >$245.90 when the deal closes, each $MXWL share will be exchanged for $4.75 worth of Tesla stock, valuing the deal at approximately $218mm (a 55% premium to last Friday's closing price)
Read 9 tweets
30 Dec 18
1/ Thread on my visit to the $TSLA store in Austin, TX today.
2/ First impression: Somewhat quiet in there. Two or three families with kids looking at the different showroom cars. There was one X P100D, S P100D and a Model 3 performance on the floor. No noticeable quality issues on any of the showroom cars.
3/ Sales guy was very friendly. Told him I was interested in the Model 3 and he took me over to the computer to look at configs. He was definitely a true Tesla believer - said best way to describe it was "fast moving, constantly changing" (older guy, had only been there 6 months)
Read 24 tweets
9 Dec 18
1/ $TSLA $TSLAQ I think we were all confused by the gross margin "improvement" in 3Q'18, I know I am. Anyone who has read the Q's is familiar with their new revenue accounting standard:
2/ As I pointed out in my dissection of the 10Q back in October, $TSLA was able to pull forward $79,861,000 on the bottom line thanks to these adjustments, as disclosed in the 10Q:
3/ However, take a closer look at the numbers. Notice, the gross margin magically improve by 7% when the revenue moves from "Automotive Leasing" to "Automotive Sales"
Read 10 tweets
6 Nov 18
"The Credit Agreement is secured by certain of our accounts receivable, inventory and
equipment. Availability under the Credit Agreement is based on the value of such assets, as reduced by certain reserves." So, $TSLA ability to borrow relies on the value of AR & inventory..
If anyone was still wondering, Elon did take cash for the 08/18 promissory notes $TSLA
"The cash flows generated by these automotive assets are used to service the monthly principal and interest payments on the Automotive Asset-backed Notes and satisfy the SPE’s expenses, and any remaining cash is distributed to one of our wholly owned subsidiaries."
Read 12 tweets