Allow me to elaborate further on this based on some comments and DMs (lil thread)
whether or not @tsrandall has an interest in spit-shining this poll's results or if its 100% accurate, based on months of forum reading, its directionally correct IMO.
There are two bars that are important here - "i would buy a model 3 again" and the reliability one.
Aug 26, 2019 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
a relatively succinct FUDdy thread i teased a few days ago and never got around to posting:
Tesla's Inability To Continue To Provide Ridiculous Trade In Offers Will Be a Drag on New Car Demand That Previously Was Not A Thing
$tsla $tslaq
so other than me generally playing the role of Bullish™️ Long™️ Bull In Bear's Clothing™️ i actually did really think that some of $tslaq was underappreciating the run-rate demand for Teslas (all trims, incl. Model 3) due to the reality that many Tesla buyers frequently trade up.
Jul 9, 2019 • 53 tweets • 13 min read
Elmer Terminal Q2 Tesla Earnings Preview, entitled:
Never Bet Against Elon™️
or,
I Promise I'm Not A Bull But We Should All Try To Think Like One Sometimes
or,
Please Don't Put Me On The BlockList This Is Just a Mental Exercise
0.1/many
$tsla $tslaq
A few days ago I wrote an initial take on the deliveries report. In that thread I suggested that I thought that the god-king would be able to build a decent story (for his lemmings and the slightly less lemming Baggie Gifs of the world) to eat up:
not much else to be said about the Morgan Stanley / Tesla call (quotes from it in prior tweets), but a few Elmer Terminal (likely misinformed) musings:
$tsla $tslaq
1. main was that some bear fuel. literally not a good word to be said about Tesla. demand dying, capital structure broken, no clear path forward, etc. pretty much "this goose is cooked unless a miracle happens"
Were Tesla's reported Q1 results **worse** than they should have been??
Or,
Is Tesla unwinding some accounting fraud?
Into the bag-hole we go.
$tsla $tslaq
So, some accounting background:
When you're a manufacturer like Tesla, there's an accounting concept called standard costs. It is the bane of many sophomore accounting students existence as they work to pass cost accounting I and II.
Apr 25, 2019 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
📊📈📉
ElmerCharts™️ Post Q1 Earnings Chart Extravaganza (420x better than Chartucky Derby), part 1:
Tesla's inventory trends don't look so good... 🤒🤮
(brief thread)
1st, Tesla's inventory from Q1-16 - Q1-19.
It's going up, but that's ok, it's a growth company, right?
(Note: Tesla only breaks out FG inventory into components at year end. It was 49%, 45%, and 51%, so we're using 50% in each Q for purposes of subsequent Chartz).
*this is the last time i'll ever make this prediction, win or lose*
🚨 THE GOD-KING's REIGN ENDS ON APRIL 24th. 🚨
$tsla $tslaq
The events of this week have convinced me that Elon will quit on (or around, but probably on) the Q1 conference call.
Gather round, because as promised, I promise if i'm wrong i wont waste your scrolling with any similar theory again.
Apr 5, 2019 • 29 tweets • 10 min read
🚨 Elmer Terminal Conspiracy Theory Thread 🚨
(it's been a while my friends)
Listen in, fellow shorters, just make sure to remain on the good side of the event horizon of this Bag Hole™️
0/
🚨The Case Of The Missing Tesla Inventory🚨
...what could it be?
Website revamp?
Preventing shorties from tracking sales?
Fleet sale?
Elmer Terminal Bagspiracy Theory™️:
Perhaps Tesla is going through an ABL audit or other financial evaluation right now.
$tsla $tslaq
1/
Mar 26, 2019 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
🚨 THREAD 🚨
Was Zach appointed CFO of Tesla on January 5th?
If so, did $tsla break SEC rules in not reporting it until January 30th, when, during the last moments of the call, Elon told Deepak to say his final goodbye and said Zach was taking over?
Hmm....
$tslaq
1/
My basis for this (speculative) assertion is the massive stock option grant given to Zach on January 5th, as now known thanks to his My Little First Form 3 filed today: ir.tesla.com/static-files/3…
2/
Mar 17, 2019 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Elmer Terminal Thread:
We are seeing unprecedented discounting of both Model 3s as well as Model S
and to be honest I can't really even understand why...
$tsla $tslaq
1/
Over the past handful of days I have seen during my forum trawling a LOT of stories of Model 3 discounts given to buyers who were already on board to pay full price, and it isn't really clear why. Here's one example from just now:
Buyer buys a CPO at the famed Mt Kisko store. No tag after 1 month, temps expired, can no longer drive the car.
Lets see how much worse this can collectively get.
$tsla $tslaq
Dec 17, 2018 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Elmer Terminal SCOOPETTE
While it is known that Tesla has been slow to supply repair parts lately
We've got some intel (h/t anonymous source) that SUPPLYING OF REPAIR PARTS APPEARS TO HAVE CEASED ALTOGETHER.
Perfectly normal for a $60b company, right?
$tsla $tslaq
1/x
OP gets a wittle dent in his Model X and asks for tips on getting it repaired noting that things have been tougher in that regard lately.
Commenter #1 one notes that he was unable to get his Model S (with $14k in damage from rear ending) repaired.
$tsla $tslaq
2/x
Dec 4, 2018 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
ELMER TERMINAL ANALYSIS:
Why @InsideEVs's guesstimate (soon to be picked up by mainstream media as fact) of Tesla's November deliveries is likely in no way correct.
*thread alert*
$tsla $tslaq 1/
IN TOTAL:
@InsideEVs claims 24,600 Teslas were delivered in November.
How Tesla Covered Up A Model S SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUSTING
by BRIBING the customer (and then reneging on that bribe)
In order to not kill the company.
An Elmer Fudd Exclusive™️
$tsla $tslaq
1/
The year was 2014.
$tslaq probably did not exist yet.
@elonmusk had not yet settled a securities fraud lawsuit for tweeting out a fake buyout offer.
But $tsla was still a deceitful, dishonest company up to no good.
2/
Oct 27, 2018 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
SCOOP:
Tesla beat in Q3 solely because of supplier rebates.
I teased this in ALL CAPS WHEN I WAS Q3 RAGING but its time to more clearly articulate some thoughts on this.
as always, @elonmusk, feel free to let me know if i'm off track.
$tsla $tslaq
So Tesla beat by like $300m in Q3. Whoop de doo. In fact, auto revenues were lower than many forecasts. they beat because of lower COGS (and to a lesser extent, lower OPEX) vs all reasonable forecasts.
$tsla $tslaq
Oct 9, 2018 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
A THREAD on using TMC data to try to figure out $tsla's remaining backlog...
To those who don't know, one of the best sources of Tesla Model 3 data has been the @TeslaMotorsClub tracker. (it's an enthusiast forum where buyers self-report ordering, taking delivery, etc.)
$tslaq
here's the source for that tracker. you've likely seen myself and others post graphs of waiting on VIN/waiting on car, etc. good source of information on trim blend as well.
