It's a public holiday so I'll tell finX a story about one of my best trades ever. Bit of a lesson at the end as well

This goes back to early 2021 when things were shall we say kinda crazy in the markets - particularly SPACs All sorts of garbage were going public, so it was overwhelmingly common for deSPACs to trade with a lot of vol. As such, options on SPACs tended to incorporate a lot of IV

Apologies in advance for a rare spammy post 😅

NYC based people, I am trying to get rid of some furniture and household items at fire-sale prices (let's get the value folks out of the woodwork)

newyork.craigslist.org/mnh/fuo/d/new-… I think this would be an interesting post for young professionals / recent NYC-ers who would like to pick up some useful stuff at bargain basement prices. Items were somewhat pricey brand new, and for certain things they are back-ordered for quite a while

All $ATTO enthusiasts, I suspect this is my last public commentary on the name (given my formal employment begins in Jan!)

VERY Interesting news out today. Kyma files a 13-D and the details are fascinating if you read the document

sec.gov/Archives/edgar… Kyma is a UK based fund which now holds 5%+ of $ATTO stock. One of the largest public shareholders outside of the big 3.

They are unhappy with the corporate governance and historical mismanagement, which led to destruction of shareholder value

$UAN is my current largest position. Quick thread 🧵 for people who can't be bothered to read the substack article. I've looked at a LOT of commodity stocks over the past ~12 months, nothing beats $UAN in terms of r/r from here at current prices in my view. First, downside protection: company sells product up to 6m in advance - hence 1Q and 2Q of 2021 were very disappointing despite higher spot prices. This works in your favor in 2022, as fertilizer prices have gone vertical and are still climbing today!

My new substack post on $TREC is out - I am highly confident that the Company will announce strategic alternatives imminently, or face a proxy contest from the activists. A sale of the business in whole or by part will yield a hefty premium to the current trading price And given the timing, I think all of this will happen very quickly, as the Annual Shareholder Meeting is in May. The activists realistically only have a 2-3 month window to announce a public campaign and propose board director candidates

$MKTY presentation on Microcap Rodeo is a great listen.

Sept monthly update out in a matter of days (expecting a huge ramp) and the CEO even mentioned a sneak peak into early October ramp 🤩

Also the ticker change to “SLNH” and rebranding to Soluna Holdings is going to be cool I’m a bit surprised that the stock reaction was a bit muted. I guess the bulls are already positioned and skeptics aren’t going to jump in until it really becomes obvious

This is a great thread for $UAN and definitely the right way to think about it - after all we always need to keep in mind what the fair multiples are on a mid cycle earnings basis to value any cyclical business

https://twitter.com/hareng_rouge/status/1446150193066434562

And I like conservatism. There are always risks in the real world and things rarely play out as planned in the “excel spreadsheets”, no matter how sophisticated your modeling is. So I can’t fault someone for aiming for $100/unit and scaling out on the upside

$JAKK seems to be in an interesting spot. Certainly any name that touches retail/consumer supply chain is going no bid right now, but we know that the Company should handle supply chain issues better than majority of other companies… Why? Because the business is 60% FOB and 2nd Q call disclosed they did a lot of pre-buying of inventory. As well as the fact they have strong supply chain relationships to rely on (yes this is pretty subjective)

Some good news for all subprime consumer lending enthusiasts, whether you follow $ELVT, $CURO, $ENVA, $OPFI, or any others.

$ELVT just put out a press release this afternoon that pretty much says business is absolutely booming right now investors.elevate.com/news-events/ne…

Spaces announcement on $MKTY
8:30pm EST, Friday 9/24/2021

To my delight, had a lot of inbound inquiries after I posted $MKTY on substack. I will be hosting a Spaces with the OG axe on the name, @kingdomcapadv to discuss the opportunity and take questions from the public $MKTY is an up-and-coming Bitcoin mining operation, which relies purely on green energy. The Company trades at a very low valuation, as the market has not appreciated the ramp and the run-rate earnings to be achieved in very short order.

I know everyone is seeing a wall of red and feeling depressed today. Plum is here to brighten up your day 😅 with yet another "pounding the table" for $UAN. I've disclosed this before, it was my biggest position for a while until $ATTO took over recently. I have a feeling $UAN is going to go parabolic in short order and put all my other positions to shame. Let's start with the unit price action today in a horrible tape

Thread for my largest position $ATTO - the latest Substack post went out yesterday afternoon, will link in thread below. Encourage any interested Fintwit to read the post in full, but here is the TL:DR version. Enjoy... $ATTO - Atento is a leading CRM/BPO player in LATAM, with a growing presence in the US and EMEA as well. This is a $400mm market cap, $200mm EBITDA (pre-leases) business that is relatively unknown to the value community, one that I'd readily characterize as a "hidden gem".

Tomorrow afternoon, I will be releasing my largest and highest conviction position on Substack. Have done 6 months+ of work and after much deliberation, finally developed enough conviction to put pen to paper and share with the public Am keen to share asap, but having a quick management call tomorrow to tie up any final loose ends. Always good practice, though I generally try not to bother management too much in any of my investments. They have a business to run!

$MKTY released August numbers this morning before market open. As anticipated, results were good and this update certainly reduces some fears around execution risk, as the facilities are ramping well. I am not going to provide any further commentary until more substantial developments occur. Not trying to pump anything and interested investors can review the results for themselves.

Here's a quick thread for my latest substack post for $MKTY - a BTC miner that is flying completely under the radar and is poised for a rapid re-rate in the coming months. $SPRT is all the rage, but $MKTY should be interesting for curmudgeonly value folks $MKTY is a rapid execution story - the Company's EcoChain division is expected to scale to 53 MW of capacity by 1Q'22, once all 3 facilities (TNT, Python, Anaconda) are fully ramped. The pitch here - they all rely on very low cost renewable energy

Quick thought exercise and a trade idea - I have tweeted about fertilizer stocks in the past, and many of them disappointed 2Q earnings (esp. $UAN and $CF). I was caught off-guard about poor price realization, mainly driven by forward selling. They sell volumes for anywhere between 1-6 months forward. I didn't realize the tail could be this long (in the case of $UAN due to poor mgmt. communication but w/e, my numbers were still way off). So 2Q did not reflect all of higher spot pricing

I added meaningfully to my $JAKK position in the low $12s. Short thread for anyone still following the name or doing work. I think r/r is getting too good to ignore as the Company gets caught up in the small-cap selloff The thesis hasn't really changed since my initial Substack writeup. In fact after a stellar 2Q, the market was figuring out the potential here and the stock rallied to $15.5 - a very rapid rerate from $9-10/share pre-earnings

Finally had a chance to read through the $IEA earnings call transcript from the call earlier today. I think this is required reading for anyone interested in the stock. Full of nuggets and I am even more bullish than I was before (not sure if that is possible, but anyway) I promise to shut up about $IEA shortly but wanted to draw your attention to a line in the transcript that really struck me - the recent equity offering was significantly oversubscribed

Hunter Douglas ($HDG.NA) posted a blowout 2Q as expected. Highest quarterly EBITDA margin ever (I think?) at 21.3% and the Company has signaled bullish outlook as well for the near/medium term Given 2Q EBITDA of $254mm, incremental margins and the outlook, not difficult to estimate $850-900mm of EBITDA for FY'21. This was previously calculated by others (e.g. @puppyeh1) and I was initially skeptical - but the 2Q makes clear the art of the possible for this year

Quick update on my best idea and largest position (by cost basis) - $IEA

Things are working out as planned. Company priced the new HY notes as of Aug 6th. I had a few takeaways and thought this would be helpful for anyone following along Most importantly, the $300mm Unsecured Notes priced at 6.625% with some OID - 98.483. This is a 6.875% yielding piece of paper. I was slightly disappointed, I thought this might price as tight as 5% given strength in the HY market

I love hearing stories about people's investing careers - how they got started, and what lessons they learned along the way to ultimately be successful in the markets. Pretty quiet Sunday, so a quick 🧵about my early days. Hopefully helpful for young'uns, and funny for veterans I was interested in finance from a young age. One day in college I opened a brokerage account and got an allowance of $500 from parents to fund it. Had very supportive parents whenever I wanted to experiment with stuff like this 👍