Polixenes Profile picture
Certain the stock boom will never end, & confident lenders will continue to shower Caa1 credits with cash. I immediately block $TSLA trolls.
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Sep 28, 2019 21 tweets 5 min read
1/ A thread about $TSLA's release of Smart Summon. Which will conclude by answering this question: Why would Elon Musk unleash on the world a product that is so patently dangerous? $TSLAQ 2/ The web is now flooded with videos & written accounts demonstrating how stunningly dangerous Smart Summon is. I will offer a tiny sample in just a moment. But first this observation...
Sep 24, 2019 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ Short thread with a warning to $TSLA's ABL lenders: you are now on notice that Elon Musk will shimmy his way around loan covenants when convenient. $TSLAQ 2/ After $TSLA's proposed acquisition of SolarCity was announced, Tesla and its secured revolving line lenders (under so-called ABL Agreement) amended the loan terms to allow the acquisition.
Sep 17, 2019 19 tweets 5 min read
26/ Kind readers, please find my first thread that ends with /25. Then pick it up here. 27/ The defamation lawsuit, Unsworth v Musk, is actually two lawsuits. One in the US suing for US damages. A second in the UK suing for the rest of the world? Why so complicated? I've explained it all before. Just, please, trust me, it enhances Unsworth's chances of max damages.
Jul 29, 2019 7 tweets 2 min read
1/ Short thread on land grant contract between $TSLA & Shanghai Planning and Land Resource Administration Bureau, divulged in 10-Q. Find it here: sec.gov/Archives/edgar… 2/ The contract was signed in December 2018. Why are we seeing it only now?
Jul 29, 2019 10 tweets 2 min read
1/ Very short thread on today's Adam Jonas $TSLA note, as I'm taking lots of incoming, including from the formidable artillery of @markbspiegel. 2/ Jonas took a meat cleaver to his $TSLA revenue forecasts. Slashed 2019 revenue by $1.06B. Slashed 2020 revenue by $1.63B.
Jul 25, 2019 23 tweets 6 min read
1/ The social scientist in me is always curious to observe mob behavior. There's no mob quite like Elon's Flying Monkeys & there are few people they love to hate on more than @WSJ's talented @CGrantWSJ. Let's peek at the goons in their natural habitat after Grant's latest. $TSLAQ 2/ Here's a link to the Heard on the Street piece Grant wrote yesterday evening in the wake of the $TSLA Q2 financial data. wsj.com/articles/tesla…
Jul 20, 2019 39 tweets 25 min read
@CGrantWSJ @TESLAcharts 1/ here you go, Mr. Grant. Let's start with the "workplace violence" TRO application, filed April 19, 2019: @CGrantWSJ @TESLAcharts 2/ Let's proceed to the contents of the TRO:
Jul 17, 2019 11 tweets 3 min read
1/ A short thread on Musk's Neuralink venture. The focus here is on the article written by Ashlee Vance (@valleyhack) at the Bloomberg site (@business) about last night's Neuralink presentation. Vance, you will recall, wrote the (to date) definitive biography of Elon Musk. $TSLA 2/ Link to the article at the end of this short thread. But let's just focus on the lede:
Jun 27, 2019 26 tweets 7 min read
1/ With the end of Q2 imminent, let's summarize where things stand for $TSLA. Let's start first with the Big Picture... $TSLAQ 2/ In Q2, $TSLA will approach its record Q4 delivery number (90,700). So, what about revenues & the bottom line?

Here's what Q4 looked like:

$6.3 billion auto revs
$7.23 billion total revs
$139 million GAAP profit
Jun 21, 2019 22 tweets 5 min read
1/ A thread on the $TSLA analyst who is in the news today: Robert W. Baird & Co.'s Ben Kallo. Let's start with his marriage to @MelissaLeeCNBC: 2/ Ben & Melissa wed in 2017. I wish them a long, happy marriage. But, I also wish Melissa would stop pumping $TSLA so earnestly on @cnbc or, at least, reveal that she has a huge conflict of interest given her husband's endless & idiotically optimistic Tesla research notes.
May 25, 2019 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ China & the theft of U.S. intellectual property is the theme in this short thread. We'll get to $TSLA in a moment, but begin with this important article in the excellent Exchange section of the weekend @WSJ: wsj.com/articles/huawe… 2/ You cannot read this article and conclude other than that Huawei, along with many other Chinese companies, is involved in widespread theft of U.S. intellectual property. This is not the most important instance, but it's illustrative:
May 23, 2019 12 tweets 3 min read
1/ Short thread on the leaked $TSLA email. First question: is it real? I'm assuming it is. 2/ Second question: was it twitter sitter approved? Hard to say, but I'll guess yes. Musk runs the show at $TSLA and can get just about anything he wants.
May 13, 2019 7 tweets 4 min read
1/ Great work, as always, by @tweetermeyer (Ed Niedermeyer) in @thedrive. The latest: an article explaining why $TSLA screens are failing so regularly. Link at the end of this short thread. 2/ Years ago, when sourcing screens for the $TSLA Models S & X, Elon Musk was, as always, just so much smarter than everyone else. He found a cheaper way to do it. @valleyhack (Ashlee Vance) wrote about it in his indispensable biography:
May 8, 2019 9 tweets 2 min read
1/ Congratulations, Governor Cuomo. $TSLA just struck a deal for $1.84 billion of convertible bonds which will allow $TSLA subsidiary Silevo to default on its Riverbend hiring obligations without triggering a default on the bonds: 2/ $TSLA has a strong argument that Silevo's hiring obligations are not for "money borrowed." Those obligations are for sucking $750MM from the pockets of New York State taxpayers for a new factory.
May 7, 2019 15 tweets 4 min read
1/ Oh, my. I just saw @xonkd7's post about the shade thrown on $TSLA FSD by uber-bull neroden at TMC forum as he watched the Investor Autonomy Day presentation. Here's the link. What follows are some screenshots of what neroden wrote as he watched. 2/ I'm just going to present all these without comment.
May 7, 2019 5 tweets 3 min read
1/ Whoa! Talk about brand destruction, and in $TSLA's most important European market, where the purchase of EVs is heavily penalized by enormous taxes. Here's a translation of the headline: 2/ Here's a link to the article. You may need a subscription to read it. Per @Oslo_Skeptic, the article indicates $TSLA ranked 4th in customer satisfaction in 2018, and plummeted to 51st in 2019. dn.no/handel/kundelo…
May 6, 2019 7 tweets 2 min read
1/ The indispensable @Tweetermeyer links to an MIT study forecasting the per mile cost of operating a robo taxi fleet (Musk's new $TSLA business model) with the per mile cost of conventional driven vehicles. Bottom line: Musk is simply full of it: 2/ The link to Niedermeyer's piece is here; it has the link to the MIT study: thedrive.com/tech/27854/mit…
May 5, 2019 20 tweets 7 min read
1/ A short thread on another epic fail by @WSJ in its $TSLA coverage. This time, on the latest capital raise. The reporting by @Sam_D_Goldfarb & @AllisonPrang is accurate & competent so far as it goes, but completely missed the big story, and missed several smaller ones as well. 2/ As usual, the dead wood copy varies somewhat from the on-line version. Both versions do a good job of the details of the deal, including the up-sizing and the shoe.
May 3, 2019 12 tweets 3 min read
1/ Today's must read: jaw-dropping report from @lorakolodny about wild claims made by Musk on yesterday's investor call preparatory to $TSLA capital raise. $TSLAQ cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elo… 2/ "Tesla expects to have 1 million vehicles on the road next year that are able to function as “robo-taxis,” Musk said... Each car should be able to do 100 hours of work a week for its owner, making money as a robo-taxi he told investors."
May 2, 2019 4 tweets 1 min read
1/ Today's message from Elon: Yes, $TSLA will continue to lose money selling autos, solar, battery storage. So forget everything I've been saying for past 12 years about perfecting auto manufacturing. And forget all about those Secret Master Plans. I have a brand new vision. 2/ I have a new path to a "half a trillion dollar market cap": robo taxis. It's a "no brainer" that $TSLA cars will appreciate six-fold over the next three years because we'll employ them as robo taxis...
May 2, 2019 17 tweets 4 min read
1/ Short thread on the $TSLA capital raise. $2B total. $650MM equity and $1.35B convertible debt, with greenshoe upsizing of 15% on both. 2/ It prices tonight. Does that reflect confidence? Or caution? I'm with @orthereaboot. That does not exactly suggest confidence.