I don’t predict the market — I feel it in my head charts Panic-buying dips since ‘21 GME reflexive cycles • Simple analysis, expensive truths
Nov 23 • 12 tweets • 12 min read
🧵#CeFi Centralized Finance-
USDT, Bitfinex and the 0% Bitcoin Loans — How a Shadow Money-Market Complex Now Sits Between
U.S. Debt and Crypto Liquidity and murdered #DeFi
TL;DR
• Tether (USDT) is not “dollars in a bank.” It has evolved into a gigantic offshore money-market fund whose reserves are now overwhelmingly U.S. Treasury bills.
• Those reserves are managed through Cantor Fitzgerald, controlled by Howard and Brandon Lutnick — simultaneously U.S. political power-players, major Treasury brokers, and backers of a multibillion-dollar Bitcoin venture.
• Tether’s sister company Bitfinex feeds the system by issuing 0% BTC loans and cheap USDT-based leverage. This supports cross-exchange carry trades that inflate crypto liquidity and indirectly fuel risk-on behavior in U.S. equities.
• Regulators (NYAG, CFTC) have already found Tether misrepresented its backing, commingled funds with Bitfinex, and operated fractionally backed for long stretches. No full audit has ever been completed.
• Despite this, USDT has grown into one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries globally — a top-20 “sovereign-scale” buyer — giving it systemic influence.
• The creation of the U.S.-compliant USAT stablecoin and deepening ties with Cantor suggest a soft U.S. regulatory co-opt rather than a crackdown.
• If the system breaks, the unwind hits BTC first, then high-beta equities, then short-end funding markets.1. The Cast of Characters
This section identifies every core individual and entity behind the USDT–Bitfinex–Cantor nexus. These relationships matter because the power dynamics shape both the financial plumbing and regulatory outcomes.
Tether (Tether Holdings Ltd.)
• Founded 2014. Issues USDT, the largest stablecoin in the world, and more recently USAT.
• Paolo Ardoino — CEO of Tether, former CTO of both Tether and Bitfinex. Now a politically connected figure with citizenship in El Salvador.
• Giancarlo Devasini — Co-founder of Tether and CFO of Bitfinex. Reported billionaire with controversial past (software piracy settlement, failed hardware ventures). Often seen as the architect of Tether’s financial operations.
• JL van der Velde — Long-time executive leadership bridging both Tether and Bitfinex, reinforcing cross-ownership ties.
• Tether and Bitfinex share executives, shareholders, legal counsel, and governance infrastructure.
Bitfinex (iFinex Inc.)
• One of the oldest exchanges, headquartered across offshore jurisdictions.
• Shares ownership and executive leadership with Tether.
• Central to Tether’s financial engineering: the Bitfinex Borrow program issues 0% BTC loans and subsidized leverage.
• Previously fined by CFTC and NYAG for misleading clients, hiding losses, and commingling customer and corporate funds.
Cantor Fitzgerald & the Lutnicks
• Cantor Fitzgerald now manages a majority of Tether’s massive U.S. Treasury holdings.
• Howard Lutnick — Long-time Cantor CEO/chairman, deeply connected to U.S. political institutions. Reported Commerce Secretary nominee. Publicly defends Tether and its reserve structure.
• Brandon Lutnick — Key figure in 21 Capital, a $3B Bitcoin-focused venture allegedly backed by Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank.
• Cantor’s involvement places a major U.S. Treasury broker at the center of the world’s largest offshore stablecoin issuer.
El Salvador & Political Shielding
• Tether obtained a digital asset license and relocated parts of its corporate structure to El Salvador.
• Paolo Ardoino has Salvadoran citizenship and champions government-aligned Bitcoin mining and energy projects.
• Bitfinex Securities is licensed in El Salvador, giving the group a friendly regulatory jurisdiction beyond U.S./EU reach.
USAT — The U.S.-Compliant Stablecoin Sibling
• Announced in 2025 as a fully U.S.-regulated stablecoin.
• Intended to meet stringent U.S. “permitted issuer” criteria — high-quality reserves, transparent custody, stringent reporting.
• Expected to coexist with USDT, not replace it, enabling parallel onshore & offshore liquidity rails.
• Strengthens the argument that regulators are “domesticating” Tether rather than dismantling it.
