Underbidding in Contestant’s Row: A Thread (5)

Who would think the highest bid in Contestant’s Row would prevail over 50% of the time? Certainly not me when I started my research.

Please pick up the book in about one year’s time to learn more. 🧵👇 1, The last bidder (Bidder 4) won Contestant’s Row bidding 41% of the time. He would have won 53% of the time had he always bid $1 above the highest prior bid.

Contestant’s Row Bidding, a Long Thread (4)

So how to bid in Contestant’s Row? Let’s discuss what to do, and what not to do, based on whether you bid 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or last (Bidder 1, Bidder 2, Bidder 3, Bidder 4).

Please pick up the book in ~1 year’s time to learn more. 🧵👇 1. Let’s start off and define the goal: To maximize one’s odds of being closest to the actual retail price without going over? This does not mean having the best point estimate, but rather capturing the largest probability of winning across reasonable price ranges.

Key TPIR Observations, Thread 3.

You are probably thinking – Let’s Dig in to the Conclusions Already! Here are some interesting takeaways as it relates to contestant shortfalls and biases. The next threads will address the right strategies 🧵👇 1. Contestant’s Row: underbidding was very pronounced. The highest bid won 53% of bidding rounds, and the last bidder, who has the benefit of being able to bid $1 over the highest bid or bid $1, won 64% of the time with the highest bid.

Introduction to “Decoding The Price Is Right,” Thread Two:

When watching the show, I wondered what strategies would maximize one’s chances of winning, across Contestant’s Row Bidding, The Showcase Showdown, and many of the Pricing Games.

Haven’t you? 🧵👇 1. TPIR strategies are governed by various fields of math. Contestant’s Row and the Showcase Showdown are unique game theory problems. Human biases create some unexpected outcomes in the Showcase. And many Pricing Games are governed by interesting applications of probability.

Ok. Price Is Right Tweetathon, let's go!

Introduction Thread: Like many of you, I grew up watching The Price Is Right. During snow days, holidays, always at 11am. TPIR provides millions exposure to games of probability and chance in a way few other shared experiences do.🧵👇 1. Why do fans love TPIR?
Why would they not?
Fans winning great prizes.
The excitement of being called down from the audience.
Guessing prices, with the audience shouting out suggestions. The Price Is Right is “ingrained in American culture,” to quote model Rachel Reynolds

Here is how I go about angel investing.

@chadsgx’s “Pitch Your Startup Spaces,” held Mondays at 8pm, is a great resource.

I am enjoying being a regular panelist.

A thread 👇🧵 1. I invested in five start-ups at a seed stage from 2015-2019. Three are going very well, and I have added to my investment in two of those recently.