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3 Oct
Zelensky is named in the Pandora Papers for offshore accounts set up *before* the election. You have to feel bad for Ukrainians, who trusted him enough to give him 73% of the vote... after he spent the campaign railing against the exact same thing theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/…
The question is where do Ukrainians even go after being betrayed by the politicians who engaged in corruption and the comedian who hammered politicians for engaging in corruption
It's not like Zelensky's government has been smooth sailing until this point, and he's still polling first. Not sure to what degree this news will take hold either. Polls and his approval rating remain important indicators here
Read 6 tweets
3 Oct
Today's Activa poll for the Chilean presidential election shows pro-Pinochet candidate José Antonio Kast in second place, which would put him in the run-off
However at the moment, the same poll shows left-wing candidate Boric is expected to crush Kast in a second round
The upswing in Kast's support does seem to be noteworthy
Read 6 tweets
2 Oct
I like how the standard polisci argument for why the American electoral system is unfair under FPTP but will never change is just that legislators will never vote against their own interests. As if that isn't terrible
To some degree it's true but it's a mistake to think that's something set in iron, and effective mass movements could have a lot of influence here
Hard mode: A third party (I know Yang wants this but anyone really famous could run as a "reformer" and sweep Congress in 2/3 cycles if they're popular enough and truly cut across demographics. That's a *huge* lift)

Easy mode: Run someone in the major parties committed to reform
Read 10 tweets
2 Oct
South Africa's former finance minister wants discussion of a referendum on autonomy or independence for the Cape region to be halted, saying "We are one united country" (via @Ellibec) citizen.co.za/news/south-afr…
A recent poll showed that 48% of voters in the province of Western Cape said yes to the idea of becoming independent
Even the ANC has had to comment on this apparently. This recent press release (yesterday) from the Cape Independence Advocacy Group says the ANC might be open to a referendum but they'd want all of South Africa to vote on the issue capeindependence.org/post/watershed…
Read 5 tweets
2 Oct
People always clown on anyone who keeps running after failing to get elected but there's pretty much no reason for her not to try again
Also running and losing can arguably help your next campaign by shoring you up in terms of name recognition. Which is why we know who Zephyr Teachout is, and why she's able to mount these kinds of high profile campaigns, because she challenged Cuomo despite incredibly long odds
This is pretty much what it comes down to in any situation, no matter how annoying "oh, they're trying AGAIN" might seem
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
Rome is about to hold its mayoral election. On the ballot is Sergio Iacomoni AKA Nero, running with his "Nero List" ("Lista Nerone").

Iacomoni is a well-known Roman Empire reenactor who has traveled the world with his historical society and says he wants to "resurrect Rome" ImageImage
Hardcore ImageImageImage
The platform for the Nero List (Full name: "Roman Historical Movement - Nero List") involves heavy subsidizing of traditional Roman festivals and music, as well as a promise to "sponsor bagpipers in each municipality" movimentostoricoromano.it/programma Image
Read 6 tweets
2 Oct
In Asunción, the capital of Paraguay, there's a mayoral election on November 14th. After the incumbent right-wing mayor derided his opponent Edu Nakayama (from a centrist party) simply for being Japanese, this is how Edu responded ImageImage
Small correction, he was the incumbent until July, the acting mayor who took over in 2019. He resigned because it was required by the law in order to run for a full term I believe
This election could be really interesting because up until now that mayor, Óscar "Nenecho" Rodríguez, was polling pretty well. The most recently released polls show him beating Nakayama easily, but that comment was made on the 23rd ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
Austrian Communist leader in Graz, where the party just won, on how she wants to govern: "A political style with more humanity, more empathy, more respect. It's not about dividing people apart. We do not want exclusion" tt.com/artikel/308024…
Any German speakers can give me a better translation of this (just the headline)? profil.at/oesterreich/el… Image
From the same article: Image
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
Extreme right-wing candidate Zemmour a point behind Le Pen in the latest Ipsos poll (and a point away from the second round)
In some scenarios he's 2 points behind but geez this situation unfolded quickly
This was also conducted after Zemmour's debate that just took place with Melenchon
Read 8 tweets
1 Oct
After their recent success taking first place in the city of Graz, Austria's Communist Party is now at 4% nationwide (threshold to enter parliament: 4%) Image
"Fellner! Live" is an Austrian political show
Also of note in that poll is the new anti-vaccine, anti-Covid restrictions party MFG at 5%. On the same day the Communists won in Graz, they made it into the Upper Austria state parliament with 6% of the vote
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
So Doumbouya is now officially taking the presidency, in a move that is claimed to be temporary
A few days ago the junta published a transition charter which states that new elections will eventually take place (date to be determined by a council) and that "all those taking part in the transition will be banned from running" apnews.com/article/africa…
What stands out here seems to be that we don't know how long the transition will be and thus, how long the now Acting President Doumbouya will serve in his role
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
Ok Image
If Germany was made up of just Baden-Württemberg, Laschet would have won
That is the only state you can say that about, the AfD won more states
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
Biden's approval isn't good right now but the GOP doesn't seem to be in great shape on the generic ballot either
Also probably low approval at this point (and much lower public familiarity)
However when approval is low for both parties/candidates it probably does create better conditions in general for third party efforts
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
If the SPD forms a government after the German election, which polls think is pretty likely right now, you would have social democrat-led coalitions in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Germany
4/5 would be flips within the past 3 years
Europe-at-large: Spain and Portugal. Are there others? Croatia has a center-left president but not the PM
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
One member of this Norwegian indie pop band just got elected to parliament with the Marxist "Red Party"
Her name is Marie Sneve Martinussen and apparently she represents Akershus
Almost all of Red's 8 representatives (currently elected, with 93% counting) are under 40 years old nrk.no/valg/2021/resu…
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
Remember the New Hampshire Libertarian Party? That type of politics is surging in Argentina right now, powered by a lot of pretty online young people
Not only in Argentina but arguably Canada too, in the form of the PPC
PPC routinely takes its best polling among younger voters as well. Youth-backed, online, hard right-wing libertarian movements
Read 4 tweets
13 Sep
With 82% of the vote counted, Argentina's libertarians are over 13% in the city of Buenos Aires. A political earthquake resultados.gob.ar/elecciones/3/5… Image
This is for the primary legislative elections today, there's a general election in November. But this is going to completely change the way they're perceived in the media. The spotlight may or may not be good for them
For context, most people thought the polls were way overestimating them here, but they seem to have been *underestimated.* 11% would have been considered shocking. Though not sure whether they'll trend up or down with the remaining 18% of the vote
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Argentina TV news says self-described "anarcho-capitalist" Javier Milei might take *11% and third place* in the city of Buenos Aires in today's primary elections, which would be a shock to the country Image
The libertarian presidential candidate fell flat on his face in 2019's primary elections despite polling somewhat well prior to the vote. So many expected a repeat of that situation, and wondered whether they'd track at all
This would be the first confirmation that libertarians are a real force in Argentinian politics, though the general election will be the real test of their support
Read 10 tweets
12 Sep
Some guy dressed up as a capybara to vote in today's Argentinian primary elections Image
Also voted: "Joker argentino"
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
Further to the right than many European far-right parties
Commitment to democracy is definitely an important litmus test here. Even a lot of European far-right leaders were squeamish about fraud claims and the Capitol riot
More or less the modern GOP is pretty in line with Viktor Orban or Law and Justice, though on some cultural issues the Europeans are probably further right. Economically the Republicans are, overall, much more right-wing than Europeans, *and* leading the way for their far-right
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
Two things you can't joke about on this website without pissing off entire countries
- The Queen of the UK
- Australians eating their beloved national animal, the kangaroo
this is the dark secret of Australia
"This little bounce-ah is called a joey"
"So cute, what do y-"
"WAY EAT IM"
Read 4 tweets