My first ever face-to-face interview. Talking Bitcoin and where $BTC will go this cycle.
👇


Thread of charts below 1. Bitcoin is exactly where we expect it to be at this point in the cycle. It has now completed the ETF euphoria 'hangover' over the past 8 months.

1/ We created Treemaps for Bitcoin Treasury holdings.

Visualize how much bitcoin public companies have on their balance sheets.

They're interactive so you can click around.

Some key data... 2/ Globally, USA dominates...by a long way, and Microstrategy is without doubt the boss.

MVRV Z-score:

A useful on-chain indicator that looks at extremes between...

Market Value: price * number of coins in circulation
and
Realised Value: av. price of coins when last moved from one wallet to another wallet * no. of coins in circulation The Z-score is a standard deviation that looks at differences between MV and RV.

In the depths of previous bear markets Market Value has dropped below Realised Value. 

During these times the indicator drops into the green band.  Signalling Bitcoin is undervalued.

1. Some topline thoughts/charts on $BTC taken from my analysis to subscribers last+this week.

As mentioned before the event, $BTC needed a pullback/slowdown as several indicators were signalling the RATE at which had price appreciated was too extreme to keep going much longer. 2. GR Multiplier: Price has now pulled back below the x3 multiple where I expect it to stay for a while.  

As others have spoken about, price likely ran up to x3 (beyond x2) because we've had an earlier mania phase in the cycle vs last cycle with both retail+institutions buying.

1/ $BTC market observations thread:

After the market crash last month we are seeing multiple LookIntoBitcoin indicators bounce back hard.

Plenty to choose from but you can see from MVRV Z-score how Market Value did not want to stay below Realized Value for long AT ALL! 2/ $BTC is incredible value when we see dips below Realized Value.  

That is when we see the Z-score enter the green zone on the chart.

THREAD: 

$BTC: On-chain and market cycle update 

TL:DR - Bull market is close! 1/  Price is aggressively bouncing off the 350 day moving average after a retest.

Why is that important...

1/Introducing lookintobitcoin.com - a new resource for Bitcoin investors

Includes:
1. Live valuation charts - many not publicly available elsewhere
2. Learning materials for market-cycle and onchain tools
3. Indicator alerts so investors know when charts hit critical levels 2/ Bitcoin investors who are used to market cycle and on-chain indicators can jump straight in to live charts like the brilliant MVRV Z-score that has historically picked cycle tops to within 2 weeks…

1/ $BTC scenario planning:

Touching the 200DMA yesterday was strong bull market support. 

Decent chance we bounce from here...but if we don't it's worth looking at what is probable if we brake down again. 2/ This red candle lines up with the 0.618 which I believe would act as very strong support, given we are in a bull market. 
Shoutout for @filbfilb for pointing out the 0.618 to me when we were talking earlier.

1/ Introducing: The Golden Ratio Multiplier.

A new tool that helps us understand the cyclical patterns of Bitcoin adoption.

In doing so, it identifies intracycle AND full market cycle price tops, therefore providing a very useful risk management tool.

medium.com/@positivecrypt… 2/ The article starts by noting how the 350 day moving average has acted as an axis for Bitcoin's major market cycles - once we break out, a new $BTC bull run begins.

1. So much bullish hopium on my twitter feed today, incredible scenes. I am bullish short term but to keep some perspective... 2. NVT Signal is continuing to show a very similar pattern play out with the previous cycle. One final spike up before capitulation.

1/ Top quality analysis as always from @MustStopMurad... and here is some additional TA/FA thoughts on why I believe this scenario will likely play out...

https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/1090426182569545729

2/ If we do bounce up price would also need to get past these bear market dominating moving averages (112, 128) which I don't think it will be able to so it will get stuck around that $4300 area. A great shorting opportunity if we get to them...

1/ We are due a decent BTC price bounce here. @woonomic NVT Signal has never gone straight from +150 highs down to c.50 capitulation. We have entered an area of support and resistance. Likely to consolidate on NVT Signal before final move down to c.50 in early 2019. 2/ May feel optimistic at this point, but with every single bounce in this bear market price has hit one of these moving averages
-112 MA (blue)
-128 MA (orange)
-195 MA (black)
Possible we rally and hit one of these before they push price back down to capitulation early 2019.

@ToneVays @novogratz Hi Tone, I’m with you that BTC going down v.soon, to be fair to @novogratz, he was referencing the BGCI, index of top10 crypto, rather than BTC price. Actually think he is correct that top10 crypto bounce here – but the #1, Bitcoin, actually falls. Just like we saw in Aug 2014. @ToneVays @novogratz Given this is the case I'm with @woonomic, we just bounced on NVT Signal but once that support line breaks 150,we go down. Building on @woonomic great analysis, there are also a couple of other key indicators that will help optimise BTC investment timing during the bear market..