🧵Why elites playing politics with national security is good, actually: New essay in @ForeignAffairs adapted from my book The Insiders’ Game (out 3/26, preorder @PrincetonUPress ).


1/press.princeton.edu/books/paperbac…
foreignaffairs.com/united-states/… What do collapse of border/aid deal, @RepGallagher exit from House, & @HamiltonMusical cab battle #2 have in common? They show foreign policy is always political—and today's politics of national security are broken. 2/

Glad to see new @annualreviews on elites and foreign policy article published ahead of print. Bottom line? Elites: can’t live with ’em, can’t live without ’em. A quick thread: 1/ annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.114… The article reviews the progress we’ve made in understanding 3 general areas: who elites are, what elites want, and how elites influence foreign policy. We know so much more in all three categories. 2/

Quick thread on why this deserves a "Whoa." In 2021, few think it makes sense to use nearly 20-year-old AUMFs to authorize force, and there have been leaders like Tim Kaine pushing for a replacement for years. But still politically surprising to see this. Why? 1/

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1367819838823993346

First, presidents, even those who campaign on controlling executive power, don't like to give it back once they reach the Oval Office (see Obama, Barack). 2/

THREAD: The news of the pending appointment of retired Gen. Lloyd Austin as SecDef has provoked a complex reaction. Here is a thread of @monkeycageblog posts summarizing relevant security studies and civil-military research (hello spring syllabi!). 1/ To start with, the appointment would be a historic first, if not the one many were expecting. The military is in the midst of a reckoning on race; here, @jaylyall_red5 writes about why diversity in the military is important to its mission. 2/ washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…

Some last thoughts on a day of many elite signals (Esper press conference, Mattis letter, Milley, etc.) and now this from Senate Republicans, which may not seem like much but is more than meets the eye. 1/

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1268350285497450496

Here are my earlier thoughts on why Esper's press conference mattered (and notably, I saw a clip on local news tonight, still an important source for many Americans): 2/ washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…

Some undercaffeinated thoughts: Esper's interview last night was ridiculous, but today, it is still an important moment that a SecDef is standing at the Pentagon podium delivering remarks (something all too rare in this administration in normal times). 1/

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268185637921964032

As I wrote last night it is very, very rare for top officials to resign in protest and reasons to think there are structural factors making it even more rare today. 2/

As Trump visits India, here is @clary_co's excellent @monkeycageblog overview of the state of play, and a short thread of our recent India coverage. 1/ washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/… @clary_co @monkeycageblog In December, @SuparnaChaudhry wrote a very useful explainer of the new Citizenship Amendment Bill, which set off major protests. 2/ washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…

So happy this review essay w/ @dshyde on regime type and IR is on #FirstView @IntOrgJournal. We've been working on this for a long, long time. Here’s a thread on where it came from, what we hope it does, and some still-forming thoughts on how it applies to the US-Iran crisis. 1/

https://twitter.com/IntOrgJournal/status/1217145528456077312

We started from the premise that there was lots of new work on autocracies in IR (AIR) and revitalized interest in democracies in IR (DIR), but there wasn’t that much conversation between these literatures. 2/

Prompted by this @nytimes article, a couple thoughts on the politics of Trump's decision...tl;dr: yes, he probably had more leeway to hold off because he's a Republican. Here's some research: 1/n nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/… First, @mchorowitz & Levandusky show in @The_JOP that presidents can avoid paying audience costs (i.e. can back down without a political penalty), with party playing less of a role since the president can cite new information. 2/ jstor.org/stable/10.1017…

Some under-caffeinated thoughts on the news that Trump approved a strike on Iran and then pulled back (which he’s now confirmed). Thanks to @dov_levin for this tweet about my @IntOrgJournal piece on why experienced leadership matters. 1/n

https://twitter.com/dov_levin/status/1142051564514770946

[Caveat: we’ve had a lot of good @monkeycageblog analysis on Iran this week but these thoughts/errors are just me and I don’t mean to put words in anyone’s mouths.] 2/n

Hadn't seen that @dandrezner mentioned my @IntOrgJournal piece on how experienced advisers can get away with very risky policies under inexperienced presidents in his (scary) piece on Venezuela this morning. 1/ washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/0… Here's a @monkeycageblog version from July 2016 on why experience matters for overseeing advisers, even the experienced ones. Without the shadow of an experienced chief, incentives to make careful plans or mitigate risk go down. washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca… 2/

A few quick thoughts on Mattis resignation. Typing on the go so forgive mistakes. First, letter is something. Criticism of an R president in particular for hurting allies and being blind about adversaries.... 1/ Also, yes people leave but resignation in protest, if we can call it that, is very rare. Presidents work hard to avoid. Lately Trump has...stopped with Mattis. JCS, Syria. etc. 2/

A few thoughts on the summit as I look back over @monkeycageblog coverage of North Korea for a roundup post. Political scientists often seem like downers, but we are trained to look for hidden, structural forces. The result is often a strong bias toward the status quo. 1/n It’s not that we don’t think leaders matter (I wrote a book that says they do; but just see yesterday’s news) or that face-to-face diplomacy can’t achieve results (much recent scholarship on this, as post by @Prof_MHolmes & @YarhiMilo shows). 2/n washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…