1/ America launched strikes on Iran while Iran was actively negotiating and had agreed to stop uranium refinement. I've spent 55 years studying how political and economic systems collapse, and I have never seen a miscalculation this large play out this fast.
Breaking it down below 2/ The Ayatollah they killed was the very man who issued a religious ruling against Iran building nuclear weapons. They assassinated the argument against proliferation. Now watch what every government on earth concludes from that.

The $10 trillion U.S. debt wall has become a political weapon. But the accounting tells a different story than what you'll read in mainstream economics textbooks. After modeling government money creation, I've found that the entire framework economists use to discuss bonds and deficits is fundamentally flawed.

Mark Carney says the international order is "rupturing." He's right. But Donald Trump isn't the cause of this collapse. He's the result of a mistake made 80 years ago. In 1944, the US made a fatal error. Instead of adopting Keynes's neutral "Bancor" for global trade, we let Harry Dexter White install the US Dollar as the global reserve currency. We thought it was a power move. It was actually a suicide pact for US industry.

1/10
Niall Ferguson claims the US is in "big trouble" because debt interest payments now exceed defense spending. He calls it "Ferguson's Law."
I call it a fundamental misunderstanding of double-entry bookkeeping.
Here is why the debt panic is wrong. 2/10
Money obeys a conservation law: Assets minus Liabilities minus Equity must equal zero.
This isn't a theory. It’s how the world has worked since the merchants of Venice.
It implies a "seesaw" relationship between sectors of the economy.

1/ Ben Bernanke won a Nobel Prize after making possibly the biggest forecasting error in economic history.
July 18, 2007: He tells Congress the economy will strengthen.
August 9, 2007: The global financial crisis begins.
This wasn't bad luck. This was economic theory working as designed. 2/ Between 1990 and 2015, the correlation between private debt and unemployment was minus 0.93.
Mainstream economic theory said it should be close to zero.
Bernanke never even looked at the data. Why? Because his theory told him private debt doesn't have macroeconomic effects.

1/9 The UK is 2.9 trillion pounds in debt, with projections hitting 274% of GDP outside war.

Scary?

Ed Conway's analysis on borrowing costs, the falling pound, stuck inflation, and spending outpacing tax revenue paints a grim picture.

But it's based on flawed OBR models.
#Economics #Finance #Economy #Investing #DebtCrisis 9/9 Ed, apply your manufacturing insights to money. Watch full debunk with Ravel models:

1 / @elonmusk preaches first principles thinking for rockets but reasons by analogy about economics.
The contradiction is destroying our understanding of money. @elonmusk 3 / I just released a video showing what happens when engineers actually apply first principles to #economics instead of trusting textbook analogies.
The results are paradigm-shifting.

Central bank money is not handed down like manna from heaven; the Bank of England creates it.
This is a fact obscured by economists and the public alike, who rely on outdated textbook myths. #Economics #MoneyCreation 3/Most economics degrees teach the loanable funds model/money supply comes from saving, dictated by supply and demand curves. This is fundamentally wrong. #LoanableFunds #Econ101

1/8 The US now has a trade deficit of nearly $800 billion a year. Many see this as a problem to be solved. Very few ask how we got here. It wasn't an accident. It was a choice. A choice made in 1944 that locked us into our current path. 2/8 At the Bretton Woods conference, there were two competing visions for the future of global finance. The first, put forward by John Maynard Keynes, was a truly international system designed for stability. He proposed a neutral currency, the 'Bancor', and an International Clearing Union.

1/ I've just accomplished something no economist has done in 80 years.

For the first time ever, I've created the complete accounting model of Keynes' revolutionary "Bankor" proposal the international monetary system that could have prevented decades of financial crises. 2/ Most economists still think money is just "fancy barter" between two parties. This primitive thinking dominates every economics textbook worldwide.
But here's the reality they're missing: every transaction involves THREE parties, not two.

1/ I've documented how 30+ years of privatization promises have turned into economic disasters. The evidence is overwhelming that "competition fixes everything" is a dangerous myth. 4/ Telecommunications "success"? Original monopolists still dominate 40 years later. Telstra in Australia, BT in the UK. Most supposed "competitors" failed spectacularly.

1/ After 40+ years in economics, here's my verdict: the discipline is fundamentally broken and needs complete reconstruction.
Here's what real economics should look like. 3/ Real economics must embrace complexity, not equilibrium. My Minsky software shows how to model dynamic, evolving systems rather than static mathematical fantasies.

Economics Needs a Reality Check -

1/ Much of what's taught in economics classrooms doesn't match real-world evidence. 2/ Markets are complex, dynamic, and shaped by innovation, not static equilibrium.

1/8 Trade deficits: Buffett warns they bleed national wealth. Mosler claims they boost real prosperity. Who’s right? My analysis settles this economic cage fight. 2/8 Buffett’s view: A trade deficit = "selling the farm." You exchange assets (bonds, land) for imports today. Over time, foreigners own your capital. Squanderville parable shows how complacency leads to colonization-by-purchase.

(1/9) Finance YouTubers are screaming Japan will crash the global economy because a municipal bond auction failed. Japan's debt is 250% of GDP, and they think this proves that a collapse is coming. (2/9) They're confusing city budgets with national budgets—it's like panicking that Samsung will shut down because your local electronics store ran out of Galaxy phones.

1/ Economist Paul Ormerod's simulations challenge everything we think we know about competition. 2/ He modeled 1,000 consumers with different preferences and firms with varied price/quality offers.

1/ Did you learn in economics that firms always face rising marginal costs as they produce more? The real world tells a different story. 2/ Empirical research shows most firms operate with constant or even falling marginal costs as output increases. Efficiency often rises as they approach capacity.

(1/9) Netflix's Lucifer perfectly explains why economists ignore reality.

When the devil himself tells people who he is, they refuse to believe it.

The same thing happens when banks reveal how money really works; economists just pretend they never heard it. (2/9) Your bank lied to you. They don't take your savings and lend them out. When you get a loan, they literally create new money out of thin air by typing numbers on a computer. Your deposit comes from someone else's loan, not the other way around.

1 / Why deficit reduction could CRASH the economy - insights on Trump/Musk economic policies that conventional economists won't tell you. Government debt is NOT like household debt.

2/ The administration aims to cut $1 trillion in spending and eventually eliminate the deficit. But they fundamentally misunderstand how money works in our economy. 2/ The administration aims to cut $1 trillion in spending and eventually eliminate the deficit. But they fundamentally misunderstand how money works in our economy.

Donald Trump's economic adviser, Steve Moran, just figured out why American factories are dying, but he missed the real villain who destroyed US manufacturing decades ago. (2/9) Every global trade needs dollars first. When China buys from Australia, they convert to dollars, then buy Australian goods. This artificial demand makes dollars overvalued, killing US manufacturing competitiveness.

"Why Economists Are Dead Wrong About Climate Change"

(And What You’re Not Being Told)

Imagine this:

Your doctor says you have a 5% chance of a heart attack.
Another doctor says, “You’ll be dead in 5 years.”

Who do you trust?

That’s economists vs. scientists on climate change.

Let’s unpack why. (2/8) Economists say:
“3°C warming = 3% GDP loss by 2100. No big deal!”
But here’s the catch:
They assume climate change is like a slow leak in a tire.
Scientists say it’s a grenade with the pin pulled.