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Yang Zhang Profile picture
Yang Zhang
@ProfYangZhang
Sociologist studying elite & contentious politics, state, empire, knowledge, and theory. Asst Prof @AU_SIS. Co-founder @THiS_TheHisSoc
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Nov 27, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Contentious politics is exciting for its eventfulness, newness, and creativity. This wave of multi-site protests in China is spontaneous, novel, and epic. It is still unfolding; its ending and consequences are uncertain. We may only offer a tentative analysis of its causes. 1/ In the past weeks, we saw violent labor protests in Zhengzhou, contentions mourning the deaths in Urumqi, the spread of the mourning protests in other cities, the campus protest in Nanjing Media College and other universities, and massive online protests (& censoring). 2/
Nov 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Protest on Tsinghua campus. This is very rare after 1989. “民主法治，表达自由，科学理性，融入世界”
Oct 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Chen Jining and Li Ganjie's promotion seems like a victory for environment protection, because Chen chaired that ministry in 2015-17 & Li chaired in 2017-2020. Chen studied environmental science in Tsinghua & Imperial College London & is a renowned environmental scientist. 1/ Image So my story is more than "once upon a time in Tsinghua"; it is also about environmental governance, which has become increasingly important in China since 2000s. More than passive or performative governance, environmental governance is provocative and substantive in China. 2/
Oct 23, 2022 • 15 tweets • 10 min read
To study Chinese politics, a pressing issue is knowing the emperor. What is emperor? How did emperorship work as an institution? How did he work with prime ministers, grand secretaries, and grand councilors? An empire perspective is indispensable. Here, I offer key readings. 1/ Chinese Historian Qian Mu's Merits and Weakness of the Political System in Dynastic China (中国历代政治得失) remains the most insightful and important work on the changing nature of emperorship and its relationship with premiership over Chinese dynasties. Highly recommended. 2/
Oct 23, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
I began to accept media interviews this October and have been glad to work with many reporters and editors. I thank the opportunity to share my thoughts on elite politics based upon my knowledge in history and theory. This thread will update some latest reports that quoted me. 1/ I was quoted in this story about Wang Yang, who "surprisingly" retired. For me, Wang Yang "demonstrated his flexibility, opportunism and competence" in different local and ministerial positions. Wang's leave signaled how strong Xi controlled the party. 2/
scmp.com/news/china/pol…
Oct 22, 2022 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
What we just saw was the making of an All Xi's Men team, the breaking of decade-long rules, and the birth of an unlimited supreme leader. These are not entirely surprising, but Xi's grab of power is still beyond our expectation. He is now a truly modern emperor. 1/ Image Xi will rule China for not one but at least two and likely three terms (15 years). He is "only" 69 year old: Mao ruled China until his death at 83 and Deng kept CMC Chair until 1989 when he was 85. So don't expect Xi to retire before 2037. Xi's power apex just started, today. 2/
Oct 21, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I had a nice conversation with @JNBPage @TheEconomist. This analysis includes my comments about China's succession or the lack thereof. After the otherwise fragile rule is undermined, there will be many possible scenarios of succession crisis. 1/
economist.com/china/2022/10/… Quote in this essay: “There will be power fragmentation and struggle after Xi’s rule,” predicts Yang Zhang of American University in Washington. “Without basic rules, succession means struggle. It’s just about when, and who will be involved.” 2/
Oct 18, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
To understand the significance of Li Qiang's possible premiership, a little history & theory about chairmanship & premiership is needed. Simply put, each pair of party leader and premier had different and even rival group affiliations since the downfall of Hua Guofeng in 1980. 1/ In PRC history, Hua Guofeng is the only leader who was simultaneously party chairman and premier (1976-1980). Hua succeeded the two positions from Zhou and Mao in 1976. This is a unique arrangement also because the national chairmanship was abolished at that time. 2/
Oct 17, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
If Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang (rather than Wang Yang) becomes premier, then any power balance at the top ceases to exist. This would also make an unprecedented case, that a provincial official is directly promoted to be Premier without any central experience. Shocked! wsj.com/articles/china…
Oct 16, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
Observing China’s Party Congress needs some background knowledge. This thread will introduce a few essential readings. Let’s start with one, because we miss him, badly! President Jiang, your China has been changed :( 1/ Image Professor Wu Guoguang’s book is a scholarly study about China’s party congress. Professor Wu was an adviser to Zhao Ziyang in 1980s and has both insider knowledge and academic expertise. This is a must read. 2/ ImageImage
Oct 16, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
The show will start in two hours. If you study Chinese politics but you don’t watch the Party Congress, it is just like you study American politics but you don’t watch the presidential debates/election. The Party Congress includes the ABC of Chinese politics. From a sociological perspective, the party congress contains rich information about rituals, rules, relationships, interactions, languages, and symbols. These are not simply performative; they deliver abundant substantive, procedural, and cultural message. 2/
Oct 14, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
When will China end the Zero Covid policy? Clearly not after the Party Congress this month, but possibly next spring/summer. I provided a political logic in the interview with @Lindadalew for Bloomberg’s Guide to the Party Congress. This thread offers more details. 1/ They will declare "victory", for twice, in the Party Congress and the National People’s Congress in March 2023. After that, the season of power transition is over, so it is politically safer for both central and local officials to consider change. 2/
Oct 2, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
How would "age limit" matter in the upcoming CCP Party Congress? Would the “Seven up Eight down” rule (you stay in Politburo at 67 and you are out at 68) still work? We now know this rule was violated in 2017. In effect, “age limit” has never been institutionalized. A thread. 1/9 1987, elders left PSC, but some of them—not the younger ones—kept key positions. Deng Xiaoping (83) remained CMC chairman and Chen Yun (82) took over CAC chairman. Later, Li Xiannian (80) and Yang Shangkun (81) became CPPCC chairman and state president. 2/9
Sep 25, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
As a sociologist studying elite politics in China, I am offering ten observations about the upcoming CCP Party Congress in October. I hope there is something that you are looking for. My prediction is pretty dark; however, you may find hopes if you read through this thread. Xi Jinping. Will Xi start the third term? Absolutely. Don’t believe Li Keqiang will replace Xi, or Xi will semi-retire like Jiang did in 2002, or the “China Coup” rumor. My coauthor and I predicted Xi’s power consolidation six years ago, see: wapo.st/3UGcQ71. 1/10