53% of Israel’s 9.3M population has received both Pfizer doses

Infection rates, severe illness and hospitalisations dropping sharply

Of the few breakthrough infections (in immunised) proportionally more are the B.1.351 (first detected in South Africa) reut.rs/3mB02yc B.1.351 made up 1% of all the COVID19 cases studied, but in patients who had received two doses of the vaccine, the variant's prevalence rate was eight times higher than those unvaccinated - 5.4% versus 0.7%.

The new Variant Under Investigation (VUI) was re-designated Variant of Concern (VOC) 202012/01 on 18 December

This is an excellent report by @PHE_UK, but it’s a bit technical so I’ll try to unpick it for you

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

1/14 The team at @PHE_uk begin by explaining that on 8 Dec they investigated the surge in cases in the South of England. Only 4% (255/6130) of Kent cases had genetic sequence data, but of these 117 genetically similar cases had been collected between 10-18 Nov

2/14

The new “Kent” strain of SARS-CoV-2 (officially named VUI 202012/01 for Variant Under Investigation, year 2020, month 12, variant 01) was identified as have multiple spike protein mutations

1/n These include deletion 69-70, deletion 144-145, N501Y, A570D, D614G, P681H, T716I, S982A, D1118H

2/n

gisaid.org/references/gis…

Great point

Sensitivity = proportion of actual cases (ppl with a disease) that a test picks up

99% sensitive means 99 out of 100 truly affected ppl will be detected.

1/n

https://twitter.com/thebluelady3/status/1340241806836060162

What’s the “gold standard” to determine what is a true case?

It depends on the condition in question, but for a viral RT-PCR a range of concentrations of RNA or virus can be added to a negative sample to help determine the limit of detection

2/n

>35,000 new British cases yesterday

18,510 in hospital

Feeling for my colleagues on the wards this Christmas. On the bright side

138,541 vaccinated

That’s 0.21% of the UK

The Background

1860s: nucleic acids discovered
1940-50s: the concept that “DNA makes RNA makes protein” is developed (& is called the central dogma)
1960s: messenger RNA discovered

1/n Path to the vaccine

1989: use of lipid nanoparticles to get mRNA into cells
1990: RNA injected into muscle can cause local synthesis of a protein
1994-9: RNA vaccines shown to induce immune response
2008-11: early phase trials

2/n

How science works:

Observations are made.
A hypothesis is generated.
Experiments are performed to test (try to disprove) the hypothesis.
This cycle is repeated many many times until the experiments are unable to disprove the hypothesis. The results are shared at talks or posters at conferences or as preprints, so others can comment & criticise.