Conservative Very OK Cognitive Scientist,PhD-Neanderthal-Author, AI-ML-Analytics-Viz-Algorithms,Politics:Systems,Individualist,Views are my own—not my employers
May 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I've been thinking a lot about individual freedom and how activists dupe those in power to adopt well-meaning policies in the name of the "Greater Good" that slowly chip away at our freedoms until what remains is a Totalitarian State ~total state control of our lives.
#SeeMasks
I see it happening at all levels, not just the state, but the work place, social media, etc.
Activists come in all guises, but they say the same thing:
"If we adopt this Good Policy, we will create a Better World™"
Then the policy gets weaponized for profit and to punish.
Oct 5, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
PUZZLE
Suppose a disease effects 2% of the population.
Suppose you have a test that's 95% accurate (i.e., 95% of healthy people are diagnosed as healthy & 95% sick are diagnosed as sick).
If you are diagnosed as sick, what are the chances you're actually sick?
Hint: Not 95%
Hi. I forgot to post the answer: 27.94%.
The point is just because a test has a high degree of "accuracy" (95%) does not mean you are highly likely to be sick. Do a second test to be sure.
It helps to plug in numbers to see this, but you can just multiply percentages:
