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Pythia “The Next Baby Buffet” Capital Profile picture
Pythia “The Next Baby Buffet” Capital
@PythiaR
Multibillionaire space pirate. CIO of Vader Capital LP. Activist engagements include Jeddha and Alderaan.
Feb 29 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Why is $NRP settling warrants in cash?

Because they think the intrinsic value of the units are higher than today's market price. Image Leases the greater of % of sales or fixed fee on production, so there is a natural downside protection to some degree. Lesees are also subject to minimum payments if they shut off the mine.
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Aug 30, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Global oil cost curve (BMO).

“Only 25% of reserves are economic at Brent of $60 or less, compared to nearly half in 2021. This indicates a fundamental floor of pride support for oil above $60.” Image Breakeven Brent equivalent supply costs Image
Jun 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“In the CPI linked business, price increases won’t be dissimilar in 2024 to what we’ve seen in 2023.”

$wcn setting themselves up to grow DD between HSD price and M&A contribution from an “elevated” pipeline closing in Q3/Q4 potentially in the middle of a recession. Consensus stands at ~13% EPS growth in 2024. Probably not thaaaat much room for upside from that, maybe some if a big gap opens up between cost & price inflation here but not a lot of downside either.