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Trying to invest. Previously in institutional money mang @ $ DD billion AUM shop
Dec 23, 2025 7 tweets 8 min read
Please do your own DD. This is just our quick thoughts and model on $SE. If there are any fundamental analysts left, they can probably use some of the data. Disclaimer, we are long but based on valuation, our positions move every quarter. Please do not rely whats said here - just info and you should really read their 20-Fs before trading.

If one can invest any where in the world today, we might start from $MACRO and look at population growth, culture, resources, inflation and overall stability. ASEAN region/SE Asia just looks very solid on paper for a transition to a digital economy. There are some real risks after Jokowi's term ended + floods, but IMHO the base setup in SE Asia digital economy & GDP in $ trillions that any current or future leaders could hurt growth even if ROW goes in a recession. There could be blips along the way but not changes in LT trajectory.

In the past 10 years, from a very small base SE Asia e-com GMV have gone up >600% ~$150B+ and most forecasts I see are >$400B to up to $1 trillion in the next 5-10 years.

While everyone is worried about competitive threats, as far as we see with a 48 yr old founder who has grown a $2B GMV biz when we first heard of the co to $120B today, its so hard to understand why markets whips the valuation of these high growth large cap businesses by 40% in any given year.

Not sure if people do not model out the segments or margins, but the growth is quiet real in $SE.Image $SE has always historically funded the co with bookings cash coming from Garena. This is a business that we are most excited about near term with the upcoming growth in India, where they were banned/unbanned, etc. Please do your own DD and our forecasts are just for information purposes, not to be relied upon. But these numbers is how one should look at modeling - bookings which is the KEY for Garena. For clarity we have highlighted when India banned Free Fire and the game is expected to be back in 2026 in the country. Some bulls estimate QAUs to reach 1B users w/150M paying users. To provide context -> $SE had in a matter of short period gone from 127M to 730M QAUs w/paying users going from 7M to 93M paying users in 3Q21 (pre-ban)! We dont want to put the cart ahead of the horse but we are fairly confident our 100M paying users by 2030 could prove conservative if management really executes the India/ROW growth.

This business could one day generate $9-10B in cash for $SE but please don't model that yet unless you can see it.Image
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Jul 29, 2025 4 tweets 5 min read
$FIG IPO

Figma, founded in August 2012 by Dyan and Evan who met at Brown University, started with the vision of bridging the gap between imagination and reality in design. Recognizing the exponential growth of software creation and the increasing importance of design, they developed a browser-based design tool using WebGL technology. This allowed for real-time, collaborative design, moving away from the traditional private, single-player, and offline model. When Figma started co-designing in the browser was considered a radical idea, but today its become the norm. LTM revs are $821M w/46% growth.

IPO is highlighting that Figma has evolved from just a design tool into a comprehensive platform for product development. This expansion includes products like Figma for brainstorming, Figma Slides for presentations, Figma Design for visualizing concepts, Figma Draw for vector editing, Figma Make for AI-powered prototyping, Dev Mode for code translation, Figma Sites for website building, and Figma Buzz for marketing asset creation.Image
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Figma's offerings have expanded from a single design tool to eight products in a few years, aiming to serve the entire product development process (so NO need for Asana, Monday, Jira/Team?/TWLO). This expansion is supported by platform, which ensures each new product is easier to incubate, test, and launch, and shares the same underlying DNA. This platform consists of five key ingredients:

Multiplayer: All products are built with real-time collaboration in mind, enabling multiple users to edit designs simultaneously and interact on an infinite canvas. This is achieved through a custom runtime built on WebGPU and Wom, bypassing the traditional browser stack to utilize GPUs and CPUs more directly, similar to game engines.

Extensibility: Figma's APIs and plugin architecture allow users to customize the tools to their specific needs, adding bespoke functionality, connecting to other tools and data, or integrating with their codebase.

Interoperability: This allows for seamless transitions between Figma's products. For example, a design mock can be copied from Figma Design into Figma Slides for presentations or into Figma Make for realistic prototypes. This ensures work created in one product can be iterated upon in another and allows different users to access the same content with relevant user experiences.

Design Systems: Figma supports design systems, which are reusable building blocks that create a shared visual language for a team. This helps bridge the gap between design and code, promoting consistency and quality in product development.

AI: AI is being woven throughout the entire suite of products to accelerate the product development journey. Figma AI helps automate tedious tasks, makes design accessible to more people, operates directly on existing Figma files (understanding layers, components, styles, and interactions), and allows for real-time collaboration with AI assistance. It can generate and reconcile code with existing codebases.Image
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