🧵I’ll never understand why the disparities in this table don’t animate the “progressives” nearly as much as those in, say, arrests or incarceration. Maybe it’s that the disparities pictured below largely explain the enforcement disparities that have proven so politically potent. But here are some things to remember: Policing—particularly proactive policing in the crime hot-spots where these homicides tend to happen—reduces homicides. So does the incarceration of repeat offenders (who drive the bulk of America’s gun violence problem).

⬇️This⬇️ by @radleybalko is by far one of the worst pieces of crime-related journalism I’ve seen in a while. The article’s upshot? A bunch of cops quit in a very low-crime community and crime didn’t spike. So yeah, we can probably depolice.
I know… yikes.
nytimes.com/2023/07/02/opi… That something like this makes it into the New York Times is frustrating because, well, the author’s suggestion is belied by a very large body of research. Perhaps an editor found this hard to ignore because, five paragraphs in, Balko begrudgingly includes this line.

I’m not sure where this assertion comes from; but there’s a clear trend toward decarceration and depolicing in many parts of the country struggling with serious violent crime.

https://twitter.com/msolurin/status/1587853546606714882

Nationally, the prison population had declined by 25% since 2009 (as of EOY 2020). On the policing front, we went from seeing 13M+ arrests in a year in 2010 to just over 10M in 2019. It’s worth noting these changes (and their effects) are not evenly distributed. Neither is crime.

Chris—Appreciate the shoutout! I'd be more than happy to talk more about the evidence supporting the idea that crime is making some folks hesitant about returning to the office. In the meantime, here are a few things to consider on this point…

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1530335238269853699

For starters, polling data show a sharp decline in the share of New Yorkers that feel safe on the subways, which is how quite a lot of commuters got to work back when Manhattan offices were full during the day: poll.qu.edu/images/polling…

We took our son to watch @sesamestreet Live at @TheGarden tonight, and we were appalled by the scene outside the venue along 7th Avenue. Leaning addicts and other stone-faced characters (dealers?) blasting explitive-ridden rap from Bluetooth speakers cluttered the sidewalk… 1/ On our way out, a loud drunk who seemed to be homeless was yelling obscenities. Outside the parking lot (I didn’t dare take a stroller on the subway at night) a few blocks away, a young homeless guy who seemed to be high walked right up alongside our stroller asking for cash. 2/

No. Proceeding as if group disparities in rates of serious misbehavior are a function of things outside of the control of the group in question is to suggest that something is wrong with them. Telling someone that they can exercise agency to make better choices is empowering.

https://twitter.com/DrIbram/status/1494356712651956226

In 2019, for example, the percentage of black high school students reporting having been in at least one fight on school property in the prior year was more than twice as high as it was for white students. nces.ed.gov/pubs2021/20210… (see Figure 6).

My colleague @stephendeide's new report for the @ManhattanInst's Policing & Public Safety Initiative on the intersection between serious mental illness and crime is a must-read for anyone interested in mental health policy: manhattan-institute.org/eide-crime-and… "[T]he modern decarceration mvmnt will not succeed if it defines success only in terms of less contact w/ jails & prisons... [and t]he deinstitutionalization movement had to learn the hard way that less contact w/ psychiatric hospitals is not an adequate definition of success."

Them: “Relax. Things aren’t nearly as bad as they were in the 1990s.”

Philly: “They’re worse, here.”

6abc.com/philadelphia-s… Louisville: “Here, too.”

abcnews.go.com/US/homicide-re…

THREAD (1/12): It’s great to see more and more public intellectuals (particularly those on the left) with large followings acknowledge that many parts of the country are experiencing a real surge in serious violent crime (particularly shootngs & homicides) that demands attention. 2/ But such an acknowledgement—while necessary—will prove insufficient if it is not accompanied by a realization that shootings and homicides will continue to trend⬆️ if American cities continue defiantly marching down the path of mass-decarceration and depolicing.

In last winter’s issue of @CityJournal, I questioned the contention that incarceration is, in most cases, harmful to families—a claim that assumes prisoners are capable of being emotionally supportive guardians and reliable sources of economic stability.

city-journal.org/fathers-famili… In addition to other suggestive evidence (e.g., prevalence of antisocial personality disorder in prisons), I pointed to a paper (which at the time was still a working paper) whose recent publication by the American Economic Review has caused quite a stir: aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

This statement is completely at odds with the available evidence, which clearly establishes a strong causal connection between police & public safety. Where are the fact-checkers? Where is the little disclaimer from Twitter letting people know this claim is disputed?

https://twitter.com/tiffany_caban/status/1357802042757152772

Here’s a paper showing significant crime declines in Washington, D.C., caused by boosts in police presence: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Here’s one showing that boosting patrols in Philadelphia led to an estimated crime drop of 43%—73%: law.upenn.edu/live/files/894…