Always surprised at $MVIS valuation (newly revived in recent weeks) vs. LIDAR peers, particularly given its weaker balance sheet and lack of apparent/verifiable customer traction. $MVIS moving higher - now with a roughly $1 b market cap - on $AAPL AR/VR announcement, even though $MVIS is not even pursuing the AR market anymore.

Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB reports earnings tomorrow

Investors have rightfully been fixated on $SIVB's large exposure to the stressed venture world, with the stock down a lot.

However, dig just a little deeper, and you will find a much bigger set of problems at $SIVB... 1/10 $SIVB rode the VC boom like a champ

Deposits grew from $61 b at Q4 '19 to $189 b at Q4 '21. Interest rates were so low, these deposits were like free money (~25 bps avg. cost). 2/10

TAX LOSS "JANUARY EFFECT" (SMALL CAP) STOCK IDEAS

2022 has been a bear, with many stocks down -80%, -90%, -95% or more. At YE, holders are often eager to lock-in tax losses & clean-up their books. So we could see some nice bounces once the selling abates.

Here are a few ideas: Somalogic $SLGC, $2.26 - A leading platform for proteomics analysis, $SLGC has a $435 mm cap w/ $550 mm+ of cash. $SLGC has cut costs and should burn ~$80-$100 mm in '23, w/ a partnership with $ILMN due to launch in '24. New Exec Chair seems like validation. 1/10

Having managed money for a long time through many cycles, a few thoughts on how to stay mentally fit when things are tough (as they are now):

— If you’re not sleeping well, or are overly fixated on a position, reduce your exposure(s) so you regain your composure and sanity. 1/6 — A tough market can make you feel like a deer in the headlights (‘08 still feels like y’day). It is important that you remain nimble and can play offense. This, too, means it might make sense to cut some exposure. You don’t have to make it back the same way you lost it. 2/6