Trump and May 9

A little more than a week into his presidency, Donald Trump’s optimistic plan to bring an end to the war in Ukraine is floundering, with the fantasy-driven “peace plan” crafted under the guidance of retired LtGen Keith Kellogg running head on into the fact-driven reality of a Russian victory defined by objectives unfettered and unfazed by American posturing and threats. As the Trump administration prepares for the all-important first phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is hampered by the fact that there will be no second chance—either Trump has a viable strategy for bringing the conflict in Ukraine to an end that addresses Russian reality and sensibilities, or Russia will finish the war on its own terms.

President Donald Trump recently asserted that Russia had stolen plans for an American hypersonic missile Trump called the “super-duper” during the administration of President Barack Obama, and that these stolen plans served as the basis of Russia’s current arsenal of advanced hypersonic weapons. Trump’s allegation repeats a claim he first made on the campaign trail in October 2023. It is likely that Trump is referring to information derived from a counterintelligence briefing he received during his first term in office. The notion that Russian hypersonic weapons are derived from American research and development is facially absurd.
In fact, it appears that the opposite is the case—that the United States has acquired research from Russian hypersonic weapons programs and incorporated it into American weapons systems.

As America and the West comes to grips over the fact that Russia has launched an ICBM-capable missile in combat for the first time in history, we all might want to take some time contemplating how we got to this point, and we might find a path that leads us away from the inevitability of nuclear war with Russia.
1/5 Fortunately, there is a book that does just that: Disarmament in the Time of Perestroika.
This is a history/memoir that details the story of the implementation of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, and the role I played in setting up and operating a monitoring site outside the Soviet missile factory in Votkinsk.
2/5

Israel claims that a senior Hamas leader was in the Jabalia Refugee Camp when it was struck by Israeli bombs. Israel claims that the deaths of Palestinian refugees in the camp are collateral damage permitted under the law of war.

Israel is wrong. Any discussion of collateral damage, however, must answer a threshold legal question whether or not the commander in question was actually inside the camp at the time of the strike.

1) For all those armchair generals who snipe at Russian military performance, reflect on what the US and NATO have and haven’t been doing for the past 20 years. Neither could survive long in the kind of war Ukraine and Russia are fighting today—it is beyond their imagination. 2) The use of massed fires is something NATO is incapable of doing—they lack the equipment and doctrine. The use of precision guided munitions is no substitute—the delivery systems will be rapidly attrited by Russian counter fires. Russian artillery supremacy is a game changer.

1/8 People are having trouble accessing this article given Twitter’s internal censorship. I’ve broken the article down into 8 images, which I will link in sequence.

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts. 2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.