If Joe Biden wins on November 3, the Trump-to-Biden presidential transition will begin one week from today. Even in normal times, the transition period is the most perilous moment in American politics. This year, we should be especially worried. Here's why... [thread] 1/ Trump's refusal to leave office is the nightmare scenario. But even if he were to lose & accept the results, he could still wreak significant damage between election & inauguration days.

I made this case @TheAtlantic @TheAtlIdeas in August: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…. 2/

In January 2017, @MicahZenko & I argued in @ForeignPolicy there was no Trump Doctrine & would never be one.

With fewer than 80 days before he stands for reelection, how has that argument held up?

In short: Far better than we expected. 1/

foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/18/thi… During the 2016 campaign, @thomaswright08 brilliantly distilled Trump's worldview: antagonism toward allies, adoration of strongmen, & aversion to trade. 2/
politico.com/magazine/story…

DOD may hope that strategy & operations will return to business as usual post-COVID. But the longer this pandemic continues -- and the more incompetent the US response -- the greater strain it will place on readiness, alliances, and even recruitment & retention. A few examples:1/ ALLIANCES & OVERSEAS BASING: Japan complains about US military COVID procedures at already-controversial Okinawa base:2/ militarytimes.com/news/your-mili…