A lot of people who were not tracking $MSTR's discount (<1mNAV) mistakenly think that it was never less than 1 before. They think somehow that this is going to wreck the company or the narrative. See my attached post when it was -9% in Jan 2024. I have been watching the the BTCTCs (I was calling them Bitcoin Proxies or LBEs in my old posts) for a while. What I don't think I've ever seen, UNTIL TODAY, is for the discount on $MSTR to be deeper than $OBTC's discount.

Yesterday they were approximately equivalent (both around 1mNAV), and I sold some OBTC for MSTR.

Today MSTR is at a slight (~1%) discount to $OBTC, and I am selling more of the closed-end fund for the operating business that is increasing sats per share. I have been tracking this portfolio growth since Oct 2023, but not at a granular level, of how many sats are represented per share at the time of the trade. One of the very interesting things about this space is that the # of sats per share is going up over time with most of these companies. SQNS made a bad move with a sale last month and made their ₿PS go down, and MSTR did a few days ago as well when they sold common stock ATM to create their cash dividend. I think there is a significnant chance that this move by MSTR unlocks something new, like increased pref buys or inclusion into an index. It's not clear yet to me why SQNS sold and retired their debt after only about 6 months of having the debt.

A friend of mine, who I have convinced to buy btc, but have not been able to convince to use self-custody, asked me about 'the selloff in bitcoin' this past week. This was my response:

Bitcoin has hardly moved, but MSTR has sold off a bunch. I think it’s harder to tell how much influence all the derivatives have on the market now. There’s so many proxies—all the ETFS that are bitcoin only, some ETFs that are crypto blends, the bitcoin treasury companies (MSTR, Metaplanet, Nakamoto, MARA, SMLR, SQNS, etc) and now we have other crypto ETFs launching, too. There’s a LOT of options for people to take risk bets on bitcoin via these proxies now.

Long term thesis is only getting stronger, as more and more capital is getting into this ecosystem.

Bitcoin remains inevitable. As an example of how hard it will be to sort out the influence on bitcoin, let's look at Max Pain in some options of these equities. (what is max pain? )

Here is IBIT, BITB, and MSTR max pain for Nov 21.

IBIT options suggest ⬇️
BITB options suggest ⬆️
MSTR options suggest ⬆️optioncharts.io/docs/max-pain

$MSTR not being included into the S&P 500 is a hot topic right now. Despite qualifying for inclusion, the company was not added to the list. This is because the list is not defined only by strict criteria, but by a committee of unknown members. 👀👀
🧵 🚨 Curious about what it takes to join the S&P 500? Here’s the rundown:

• 🇺🇸 U.S.-based company, listed on NYSE/NASDAQ
• 💰 Min. $18B market cap
•📈 Positive earnings (last quarter + past 4 quarters)
•💧 High liquidity (annual trading value ≥ float-adjusted cap)
•📊 50%+ public float
•🏭 Balanced sector representation
•🏢 No limited partnerships or trusts (REITs okay!)