Dramatic events over past 2 days in northwest Syria. Islamist / HTS forces, and now Turkish-backed SNA forces, launched attacks on weakened Assad forces + Iranian sponsored/directed militias and PKK-aligned forces+
Aleppo, Syria's 2nd largest city, now appears to be largely in the hands of anti-Assad forces. Russian airstrikes primarily against the Turkish-backed forces north of Aleppo, but if Aleppo falls and stays fallen, Iranian militias & YPG will likely lose ground north of the city+
Jul 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
As an old artilleryman, it may be worth a moment to explain why forensic data for alleged artillery strikes is not an unusual request in assessing veracity of who shot what from where. There are three key points
1) artillery shells leave large fragments that can be collected near strike site and matched to caliber and make of the guns 2) in cases of ground strikes crater analysis can establish w/reasonable accuracy direction of fire 3) both can be done rapidly & with modest training+
May 19, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Couple thoughts on SWE/FIN NATO accession. First, there's no reason to rush. Most NATO accessions have been done w/due concern for interoperability, security & strategic consensus building, reform & integration plans. Addressing current member concerns = valid pacing parameter+
Second, let's see what Helsinki & Stockholm come up with. Syllogism is not hard; PKK is an FTO, it & adjacent groups have very permissive environment, TR security & lives under threaten by PKK network, prospective allies should offer a program of mitigation or remediation+
Apr 7, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A few thoughts on the kabuki theater at play in Washington on the proposed F16 sale. Thread +U.S. says potential F-16 sale to Turkey would serve U.S. interests, NATO - letter reuters.com/world/us-says-…
The author of the story (Humeyra) and the author of the letter to Congress (Naz) are both top notch professionals with an appreciation for US-TR bilateral ties. Both would, I think, like to see the F16 deal work as a measure of convergence in the interests of both allies+
Feb 23, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Some people wonder why I condemn the PKK. Some seem to think this can only occur if someone is anti-Kurdish, co-opted by the Turkish government, or ignorant of Kurdish realities.
I have met many Kurds and enjoyed their hospitality and kindness. PKK does not represent them, and they deserve better than to be associated with this group in a lazy and off-hand way that ignores different linguistic, regional, historical, and political identities among Kurds.
