This year, the North American natural gas market is in a much different place heading into the winter heating season.

Let's unpack some of the natural gas market fundamentals and share some analysis to help make sense of where we are and where we might be going. Today, we see market records for natural gas production, demand, exports, and consumers.

We are also seeing lower commodity prices.

The supply picture represents planning and preparation from natural gas utilities.

And consumers, on average, may see lower bills this winter.

U.S. electricity generation by energy source this week New England (ISNE) electricity generation by energy source this week

Natural gas prices in the US have reached their highest level since 2008. What is going on?

Should we be worried? (No.)

Is the era of cheap gas prices over? (Define "cheap," but no.)

Is this an overbaked ham? (Maybe. Mmm...ham.)

Let's break down what's happening. First, let's look at global energy prices. Whatever is happening, US natural gas prices remain relatively stable and present a sharp contrast to Europe and Asia.

Chart: S&P Global Commodity Insights

Let's discuss the role of natural gas in meeting energy demand during the extreme cold weather event last week. 1/ It was COLD. An arctic air mass led to colder-than-normal conditions in all but six states. Texas, Louisana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Arkansas were twice as cold as normal based on heating degree days.

NYSERDA study of heat pumps in New York State found that "residential gas heating replacement scenarios do not at present succeed" the societal cost test, which provides an indicator of the attractiveness from the perspective of society as a whole. (2019) nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/… Space heating loads are peakier and larger than summer space cooling needs in NY, illustrated here. On those wicked winter days -- like what we're going to get this week -- these space heating peaks are even peakier and higher.

Extreme cold is about to descend on much of the US, and with it likely record natural gas consumption.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1358811457639624707

The prior all-time high for US lower-48 natural gas consumption was January 30, 2019, during a polar vortex event. The record could be surpassed this weekend.

Former Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz spoke at the "Policy Leadership Series" event held hosted by Resources for the Future in Washington DC this morning.

This thread includes some of the ideas I heard discussed. I thought you might be interested. 1/ Secretary Moniz said there's no fundamental disagreement with the proposed Green New Deal and his Green Real Deal. Both focus on deep decarbonization with climate justice in the foreground

The difference is in implementation. Acting as fast as we *like* vs. as fast as we *can*

A new study published online today in the journal Nature made a lot of news.

The headlines, generally, said: Oil and gas emissions are far bigger than we thought.

However, that's not quite what the study found... nature.com/articles/s4158… The study examined methane found in ice cores as a new method of estimating natural geologic methane emissions—seepage from geologic formations, mud volcanoes, underwater sources.

The authors concluded natural geologic emissions 20 times lower than other “bottom-up” estimations.

1. I am pleased to be able to share two reports that represent the culmination of a year’s worth of work examining the Implications of Policy-Driven Residential Electrification & Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways with natural gas technologies. aga.org/research/repor… 2. In recent years, as states and municipalities pursue goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and consider “deep decarbonization” strategies, many advocates and policymakers have turned to the concept of *residential electrification* as an emissions reduction strategy.

I'm doing a review of my upcoming report on understanding updates to the EPA Inventory of greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas systems, so I figure I will include some factoids in this thread along the way. In 2016, US greenhouse gas emissions totaled 6,511 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, down 1.9% from 2015 and 11% below 2005 levels.