8 take aways from my piece on AUKUS. Australia’s brutal decision to break off the $66 billion contract for French submarines in favour of the more capable UK-US alternative underscores the heightened level of concern in Canberra about China’s growing naval capabilities (1/8) AUKUS also reveals the versatility of Britain’s post-Brexit foreign policy. The new partnership does not over-extend Britain in the Indo-Pacific; this is not a new military alliance (2/8).

Boris Johnson’s talk of re-negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement is a charade. Even if the EU27 concede on the backstop, Boris has two more red lines: the "vassal status" transition period; & the £30+ bn committed w/out leverage over the final relationship chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… 2/5 This leaves Boris with two options. (1) He can challenge Parliament to back / not block a No Deal Brexit or, if that fails, (2) call a general election and secure a mandate for No Deal