People are losing their minds over @robinhanson's "great filter".

- "What if the great filter is too much safety"
- "What if the great filter is wokeness?"
- "What if the great filter is global warming?"

The great filter, if it is in the future, can't really be one single thing, and can't really be any problem that we're aware of.

Why?

Because the great filter is something that only one out of a billion worlds pass through. There's no problem we know about that's anywhere near that extreme.

I don't think there's a future great filter. I think it's all in the past. The great filter was the combination of abiogenesis, evolution of complex life, evolution of intelligence and evolution of technological society. We're through it, there is no final great filter between where we are now and some earth-originating entities (human or AI) colonizing the whole galaxy.

https://twitter.com/SydSteyerhart/status/1712182100034556329

Also some smart people have made the inference that abiogenesis can't be the great filter because it happened early - things that happen early in earth's history can't be the hard step.

E.g. here:

akarlin.com/katechon/

After my doomer thread on aging yesterday, I think I should make it clear that I do think that aging can be completely solved and indeed we are probably not too far away from solving it.

One man - John Wentworth - persuaded me.

🧵

https://t.co/4OUubWP1fplesswrong.com/s/3hfjaztptwEt…


From where we left off yesterday - the Gompertz Law seems to imply an inbuilt biological degredation mechanism in our bodies, you might think that the situation is hopeless. Perhaps even something inherent to metabolism or biology itself? That would be really bad news if true!… https://t.co/fguM8Rda7Etwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Contemporary attempts to stop aging (@bryan_johnson shown here) won't work.

Why not?

🧵 I recently saw a very insightful analysis of aging based on the probability distribution of human lifetimes. We take it kind of for granted, but isn't it weird that many people make it to 100 years, but out of billions billions and billions of people, nobody has made it to 130?

I just had the most amazing idea.

Imagine you train an LLM with data that is all chronologically labelled. Every book, every scientific paper, every newspaper headline, every primary source from history. Where primary sources are lacking, descriptions of events or archeological… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… I call this a LPM - Large Psychohistory Model