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Bon Viveur | Capital Markets & Macro | Rule of 65 | Benthamite | Lee Kuan Yewtopian | Occidentalist | Smithian | @RestoreBritain_ | @SDPhq | Afuera! | Patriot |
Apr 22 4 tweets 3 min read
Good morning PAYE Pigs! Up and at em!

As you drag your sorry carcasses into the office this fine morning in an honest attempt to barely break even or even worse - struggle to make ends meet - whilst more than half the country sits on its collective arse doing nothing, know this:

Britain has, quietly, crossed the Rubicon.

52.6% of households now receive more from the state than they pay in.

The majority of people you see today are net recipients. The minority (you) fund it.

This means it can no longer be accurately labelled as just a “welfare system”, in fact what we have is a demographic pyramid scheme with better branding.

The numbers, for anyone still pretending:

• 8.4m on Universal Credit, Feb 2026. Highest ever.

• Up from 5.5m in March 2022. 53% rise in under four years.

• ~20% of the working-age population now on UC.

• 50% of UC claimants are in the “no work requirements” regime.

• 4.2m working-age adults on UC, not required to look for work.

• Two-child cap lifted this month. Numbers about to accelerate.

• UC uplift for 2026/27 above inflation. Baked in.

Now consider the net contributor base:

• 52.6% of households net recipient. 47% net contributor.

• 35.1m individuals in net recipient households, +4m since pre-Covid.

• 89% of retirees in net claimant households. 46% of non-retirees, and rising.

• Strip out children, students, dependents: genuine net contributors are ~35-40% of adults.

• Net recipience was 37% of households in 1977. It’s 52.6% today.

• Net recipient headcount up ~11m since 2000.

• Growing fastest among working-age people. Ageing isn’t the driver. Wage stagnation since 2008 is.

The net contributor base is structurally too small to fund the commitments.

Fiscal drag is buying time, not solving anything. The bond market will deliver the verdict the political class refuses to.

A majority of the country votes for a system that takes more from the minority than the minority can sustainably give.

Call that equilibrium what it is: a run rate. Run rates have terminal values. Ours is being priced at the long end of the curve in real time, and nobody in Westminster has the stomach to read the chart.

Starmer is done, what follows will be much much worse. This picture will deteriorate faster and harder.

Britain is cooked… 👀 👇Image And to be clear my issue is with the scumbags who created this shit for brains incentive / dependency structure. Not the people it’s been foisted upon.