25 predictions for 2024:

1. Cancel culture gets canceled
2. Ozempic (GLP-1) is bigger than AI
3. Private credit is a headfake
4. Another Tier 1 Investor blows up
5. S&P 500 sees a +15% gain
6. TikTok finally gets banned in the US 7. Longevity products go mainstream
8. Crypto begins a new bull market
9. Terminal multiples for software businesses double
10. Software moats erode with AI
11. Valuation dispersion widens
12. A new generational social media product is born

Last year I interviewed David Sacks and he shared 10 lessons on building enduring companies

I revisted these 10 lessons and the list feels more relevant today than it did one year ago.

Let's dig in: 1. Startups should NOT “do things that don’t scale”

The whole point of technology is to find an elegant, scalable approach.

The sooner you do that, the better off you are.

When you do things that don’t scale, you end up with a startup that doesn’t scale.

The ultimate hack to 10x your career:

Enter the Side Door.

Let's break it down: Let’s set the stage.

Imagine you’re in college and it’s Friday night.

It’s been a long week and it’s the party of the year at the local bar.

Awesome - you’re all set to go.

You get there and run into a huge problem.

The Domino’s pizza turnaround is one for the ages:

1960: Founded
2004: IPO
2008: Hits record low $2.83/share
2020: Current stock at $391/share (3,000% gain)

The 100x+ growth story is filled with a bunch of lessons for startups today.

Let's dig in. Domino’s was started by 23 year old Tom Monaghan in 1960.

Tom was maniacally focused on fast delivery and great service from Day 1.

He spent the early days taking every action required to:

- Reduce delivery time
- Reduce cooking time
- Increase distribution

I talked to a super smart 20 year old this week.

All the potential in the world, but had a major major flaw in his thinking.

This flaw is becoming the most common mistake I am seeing young people make early in their career.

Let's break it down: First, an analogy.

Imagine you want to be an awesome basketball player.

Your first thought: “I need to learn everything I can about the sport.”

The world's most valuable skill:

Clarity of thought.

The problem? There's no school for this.

It takes time, patience and a lot of early career fumbling.

Here are 10 cognitive distortions I faced early in my career and an insight on how to break through each one: First - what is a cognitive distortion?

In its simplest form - cognitive distortions are irrational thoughts.

We face cognitive distortions every day. Breaking free from these thoughts is key to accelerating in your career.

Alright let’s dig into the list...

"What does the rest of the world not get about India?"

I asked this question to @kunalb11.

Kunal founded @CRED_club - a leading Indian fintech valued at $1B+.

This list is a must read if you're interested in Indian startups.

Here were my favorite insights he shared: 1. India is not a big consumer nation.

All of the ARPU is concentrated in what consumers perceive as "long term assets."

This list is tiny: (1) education, (2) health, (3) real estate & (4) gold.

Believe it or not, 18% of the world's gold is held by Indian retail consumers.

It's easy when things aren't going well to blame something (or more commonly someone) else.

Early in my career, I wish I had a framework on how to think about this. So I put one together.

I call it "It's My Fault".

Here's how it works: I used to get really frustrated when we would fall short. As a result of this frustration, I was really quick to blame others.

- Why didn’t my team get it?
- Why didn’t they care as much as me?
- Why didn’t they work as hard?
- How could they let us fail?

The most important decision you make in your career is where you work.

The problem is most people don't have a toolkit to inform this decision.

Early in my career, I wish I had a guide on how to evaluate a job.

So I put one together.

Here's how to choose where to work: In early stage companies, we talk a lot about product-market fit.

When choosing where to work, I like to think about 3 other kinds of “fit.”

- Company-Market Fit
- Person-Company Fit
- Person-Problem Fit

Early career years are painful.

You feel like an idiot 98% of the time - lost, confused and insecure.

I wish I had a cheat sheet of principles for my first job.

So I put one together.

Here are 20 (non-fortune cookie) things about building a career I wish I knew sooner: Principle #1: You’re not the “Strategy Guy”

Yet.

To be a big picture thinker, you have to earn the respect, trust and credibility of your team first.

The only way you can do this is through delivering tangible value.

Focus on bringing results, not laying out frameworks.

Last year we hit a big milestone - we crossed $60M in revenue as a bootstrapped business.

I'm proud of the accomplishment, but it was far from pretty. There was a lot of failure and misstep along the way.

Here are 15 (non-fortune cookie) lessons learned from the journey: 1. There are 3 types of trust: Intent, Competence and Judgement

- Intent: heart is in the right place
- Competence: head is in the right place
- Judgement: heart and head work together

In any situation of disagreement, identify which type of trust is in question.

🚨 Thrilled to be working with a group of friends to launch Seed Checks: a collective of 16 investors representing $100M+ of capital to back the next generation of great companies.

What is Seedchecks and more importantly how do you pitch your startup?

Read on… First, some context.

The basic premise of investing is really simple: you want to back great Founders.

The challenge - especially for active operators - is doing so in a time leveraged way.

Ironically, this is the same pain point Founders face.

How did you build a business that generates $250M/yr in profit on 0 capital raised in ~10 years?

I asked @Nithin0dha this question last week.

Nithin founded Zerodha - a once in a generation Indian fintech company.

The success ties back to 8 factors. Here they are: 1. Underlying Technological Shift

Until 2016 in India, to open a demat account, users had to sign a 40 page document and courier it.

In 2016, the entire process went digital. 2 weeks and physical became 15 minutes and digital.

This reduced friction by 10x.

How to Not Screw Up the Competitive Landscape Slide:

(niche, but important if you’re a Founder) I’ve seen 300+ decks over the last year.

Almost every competitive matrix slide is a 2x2 with the startup in the upper right hand corner.

It’s intuitive and makes sense. As a Founder, you’re communicating that you're in a good position relative to the existing market landscape.

🚨Announcement:

I am pumped to partner with @compound to introduce *The Compass*.

A collection of screenshot essays filled with tactics to help you level up in your career, build wealth, and find purpose. Why am I doing this?

I’ve been lucky to be a (small) part of the journey with hundreds of founders building high growth companies.

I’ve observed how they have worked through challenging situations and made non-obvious choices at pivotal moments in their company’s history.

I’ve interviewed 120 legendary investors, founders and executives on my podcast.

Collectively, they have created over $1 trillion of value for the world.

Here are the best 20 lessons they have shared with me: 1. Always strive to simultaneously be overrated and underrated.

Contrary to popular belief, being overrated is good.

It opens doors and gives you credibility.

But don’t let this go to your head. Stay hungry, humble and hardworking.

"What does the rest of the world not get about India?"

I asked @kunalb11 this question last week. Kunal founded @CRED_club - a leading Indian fintech valued at $6.4B.

This list is a must read if you're interested in Indian startups.

Here were my favorite insights he shared: 1. India is not a big consumer nation.

All of the ARPU is concentrated in what consumers perceive as "long term assets."

This list is tiny: (1) education, (2) health, (3) real estate & (4) gold.

Believe it or not, 18% of the world's gold is held by Indian retail consumers 🤯

2023 tech reality check:

1. Nobody owes you $2 million for having an idea.
2. DCFs are easy when interest rates are 0.
3. Value creation does not mean value capture.
4. Stock based compensation is still compensation; dilution isn't free.
5. Margins matter. 6. Narratives create 5% of long term value; cash flow does the rest
7. Playing musical chairs work; until the chairs evaporate
8. Blitzscaling doesn’t mean you can Facebook advertise your way to growth
9. Giving away money to customers is great to get customers; not to keep them

2022 was a big year for us.

We broke $65,000,000 in revenue and brought aboard our first PE partner!

Here are 50 lessons learned from bootstrapping to $65M: Lesson 1: Create an identity for your company

It’s so easy to get enamored by shiny objects.

Identify the value in your industry and decide strategically where you want to go.

There’s a lot of ways to drive impact, but you can’t do all of them at the same time.

Focus is key.

25 predictions for 2023:

1. TikTok banned in the US
2. US govt budget > 50% GDP
3. PE scoops up 30% of public SaaS companies
4. Global manufacturing shifts from China to India
5. Investing in AI is a headfake
6. A Tier 1 investor blows up 7. Hubris decreases, humility increases
8. Valuation dispersion widens
9. Digital and real world further converge
10. Globalization at individual level
11. Nationalism at institutional level
12. Crypto finally finds a use case 😅
13. Crypto -40%

🚨ANNOUNCEMENT:

I am thrilled to share I’m partnering with @patrick_oshag and the @joincolossus team on a new podcast focused on India.

The Indian startup ecosystem is on the verge of a once in a generation explosion.

Here's why I think the next decade belongs to India: There are 5 factors that are simultaneously driving the rapid rise of startups in India.

- Favorable demographics
- At scale internet adoption
- Rising purchasing power
- Risk seeking mindset shift
- Anti-(China)

Let's talk about how all 5 are interconnected.